2006 Governor’s Race
ArchPundit
IL 6 DCCC Poll
All caveats given it’s from the DCCC, but it looks like good numbers:
IL-06 (Open): Tammy Duckworth (D) vs. Peter Roskam (R)
Head to Head: Duckworth 51%, Roskam 46%. Only 34% of voters in Illinois? 6th district think that the country is going on the right track, while 57% say we?re headed down the wrong track and only 21% give President Bush a positive rating for the job he is doing. [Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, 409 voters; October 8-9; margin of error 5%]
The question for this cycle is who has the right voter screens for likely voters, but given the indicators showing Democrats with higher interest, this is a good sign.
Very Preliminary Reading
I’m presuming Individual B is Chris Kelly. If so, it’s obviously close to the Governor and there is an allegation of extorting campaign cash to get state paid for benefits. However, my very, very initial reading is that this doesn’t get the public much closer than Kelly to Blagojevich and unless Kelly is flipping, there’s nothing in this indictment to suggestion the Governor is in any more trouble than he was yesterday.
Eventually, it reads like a road map to the Governor or someone who is directing the state funding, but as of now, this isn’t much different than the MSI Scandal.
In no way does this mean I think the Governor is off the hook, and obviously consorting with Rezko, Levine and Individual B is bad news, but it’s not that direct tie I think voters need.
And so it continues
It’s probably safe to say that how Fitzgerald lays out the case may well hold the key to the Gubernatorial election. If it’s relatively vague, Blagojevich gets to run out the clock. If it’s specific and there’s a Public Official A highly involved, it gives the press 4 weeks to track down stories.
I Gave Up on Two Races
The Governor’s race and Cook County Board Race are two of the most miserable contests I’ve ever seen.
Apparently, one candidate in the Governor’s race cannot point effectively to the commonly held notion amongst many insiders that indictments are coming down before the end of the year and perhaps even around election time and gain any serious traction. That doesn’t say much about her ability to lead the state. The week after the election I think I’ll host a forum to share all of the ways she could have won this race. Until then, it’s just too depressing. Even Quinn couldn’t get up the energy to be outraged until he heard it was okay to be outraged.
Stroger and Peraica could have a higher idiot quotient if Jack Roeser had been able to run himself, but that’s about it.
Leaving a ballot blank for a race is perfectly legitimate. If it makes the Southtown feel better perhaps he should have said he was going to write in Dan Lipinski to demonstrate the utter stupidity of this circus by pointing out another circus. I’d probably recommend it in at least two big races this cycle.
So when I’m not writing much on them, just go over to Rich’s.
Are There Editors at the Trib
I get the sense Eric Zorn is somewhat overedited at times probably being smart and editing himself. However, the ‘city’ columnist has gone a little over the edge apparently deciding he’s as funny as the guy he replaced and made fun of Rich Whitney for his position on the Spotted Owl. Of course, Whitney is such a moron he joins in the fun.
An owl that lives on the west coast of North America.
For those unclear why such a point is friggen stupid, Illinois is, in fact, east of the Mississippi and the geographic center of the Continental United States—okay, the geographic center of the United States.
Worse yet, and why Rich Whitney is a friggen idiot, the Spotted Owl isn’t some random species, but an indicator species that ‘indicates’ the general health of an entire ecosystem. Those who would try and run as a ‘green’ candidate might actually try and be green and actually educate the public about the importance of indicator species that don’t even affect local ecosystems or they can pander on guns and crap and pretend to be sticking it to the man. Nevermind that in an election determined by swing voters in the middle, Whitney cannot explain why he has a chance, instead attempting to attract votes from essentially right wing voters on a right wing talking point. Green isn’t so green.
If Atrios were covering this, he’d have a heart attack about this crap. Worse yet, so should the environmentalists in Illinois.
Between disappointments over Stroger and Blagojevich it’s hard to figure out for whom one should vote. Right now, and given moving hasn’t occurred before the registration deadline (hint about future posts), I’m leaning towards the idiot who can at least promise to presever the single most important historical site in Illinois—Cahokia Mounds. Topinka has offered some lip service, but no one has offered a serious plan to preserve the entire site.
Maybe the Trib Editorial Board could focus on something practical like that since their ‘City columnist” thinks issues in Oregon, Washington, and Canada are vitally important to Illinois voters.
Illinois Governor Race Polling
With excellent graphics over at Pollster
and even better, they have put together a good Polling FAQ at the bottom right corner.
About Those Trucking Taxes Causing Truckers to Flee
I don’t have time to check relative growth in border states, but a basic point here is that between 2002 and 2006, there has been an increase of 29,994 licensed fiscal trucks which are trucks over 8,000 pounds. I actually got the numbers because someone in Rich’s comments was claiming what a dramatic drop in licensed trucks one would observe statewide.
What is interesting is that out of 103 jurisdictions (102 counties + Chicago), only 3 counties showed any sort of decline
Williamson lost 697 Deep south, but not directly on the border
Macon lost 487 Decatur–not a border county even.
Johnson lost 8 Not quite border, but deep south again.
Two things strike me about these three counties–all three have economies in the crapper more than most other communities and they don’t have great access to interstates. Decatur has some, but I’d rate it lower than any of the other four Central Illinois cities (combining the two twin cities).
Following with single digit increases were Pope, Wabash and Lawrence which are all far south and have crappy economies.
Overall there is a 20 percent increase in licensed fiscal trucks from 153834
to 183828. This is just a quick analysis, but I’d say that if Blagojevich knew about these numbers it might actually provide a strong talking point for him. I don’t have time to check into bordering states and their relative growth, especially along the border, but it’s hard to believe that a 20% increase would have been much more without the tax.
very, Very Bad for the Blagojevich Administration
The only upside to this whole deal is that it hit on a Friday before the holiday. Otherwise, this is just huge.
Lisa might refer to this as the Bill Brady can bite me letter. Notice the dates of the conversation were in May, fully a week before Brady apparently asks Madigan to break the law by disclosing Grand Jury rules.
Some early comments over at the Capitol Fax suggest this lets Blagojevich off the hook because no indictments will come down until after the election. The indictments might be that far off, but this also gives reporters license to tell their editors there is something there and they should be given the time to track it down.
I’ve argued an indictment would swing the election, I’d say this makes it very unstable and a toss-up. It also means it’ll get nasty fast.