Many predicted it, but Charles Franklom actually suggested the polling evidence was there:
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
Will Giuliani be the next McCain?
Last week I looked at the collapse of the McCain campaign. Not the collapse of money and staff, but the loss of public support that is at the root of the campaign’s failure. Judging by the trend we’ve seen in McCain’s support since November that failure has been clearly coming for some time.
But what about the Republican “front runner”, Rudy Giuliani? While he has consistently remained ahead in polls of Republican voters, and his campaign is in infinitely better financial shape than McCain’s, Giuliani’s trend in support is eerily similar to McCain’s downward trajectory.
Since early March, Giuliani’s support has fallen by an estimated 8 percentage points. McCain’s fell by 10 points since January. And the rate of decline has been a bit steeper for Giuliani than for McCain. The saving grace for Giuliani has been that he started his decline from a higher point, around 33%, while McCain’s slump started down from 25%.
Giuliani’s national slide is also mirrored in the early primary states, as is the case with McCain.
Read the whole thing. Giuliani’s campaign responded, but the continuing problems Giuliani faces in the polls suggests Charles was correct.