Who is in? Given the history of this District one can only hope Diane Liesman doesn’t try and make another CoS handover.
What’s the Bush-Kerry # in this district?
Call It A Comeback
Who is in? Given the history of this District one can only hope Diane Liesman doesn’t try and make another CoS handover.
What’s the Bush-Kerry # in this district?
The Bush/Kerry numbers were 57/43.
If you assume 1.) that the probable 2006 vote in the 18th will be equal to the Durbin/Durkin vote in 2002, a non-presidential year and 2.) further assume that the Keyes percentage (37%) of votes cast in 2004 vs. Obama represents the hard-core GOP vote; and 3.) finally if you assume that the percentage of votes cast for Waterman against LaHood in 2004 represents the hard-core Dem. vote (since he had no campaign), then you can conclude that a Democratic candidate would need 61.5% of the non-hard-core voters to win. Given the weaknesses of the probable GOP nominees, this is a race that a credible Democratic candidate could win.