ArchPundit

Call It A Comeback

2008

Illinois Congressional Races

Lipinski Pro-Immigrant?

ArchPundit 2 Comments

From Open Left:

In the other important primary tonight, reactionary machine hack Dan Lipinski suddenly changed tactics against progressive reformer Mark Pera.  Apparently Lipinski started handing out flyers two hours ago that say in both English and Spanish ‘Dan Lipinski is pro-immigrant’.  Before that he was just handing out standard palm cards with his name.

Lipinski votes with Sensenbrenner, so it’s really interesting to see this flip.  Immigration isn’t quite the bogeyman for the right it seemed to be, perhaps.

Please someone get one of these and scan it and send it to me at archpundit@yahoo.com

Obama Presidential Race

Early Exit Poll Rumors

ArchPundit No Comments

Don’t take them very seriously.

Copied from Open Left, but they are all over 

Here you go.  I have no idea how reliable these are.

The Obama victories are bolded.  If these are real, Obama has thrashed Clinton today.

Georgia: Obama 75, Clinton 26
Connecticut: Obama 52, Clinton 45
Illinois: Obama 70, Clinton 29
Alabama: Obama 60, Clinton – 37
Delaware Obama 56, Clinton 42
Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 47
Missouri: Obama 50, Clinton 45
Tennessee: Clinton 52, Obama 41
New York: Clinton 56, Obama 42
New Jersey: Obama 52, Clinton 47
Arkansas: Clinton 71, Obama 26
Oklahoma: Clinton 61, Obama 30
Arizona: Obama 51, Clinton 45
1st wave:
New Mexico: Obama 52, Clinton 46
Utah: Obama 60, Clinton 40
California: Clinton 50, Obama 46

Don’t take them too seriously.  These are unweighted and raw and ultimately just samples.

Illinois Congressional Races Obama Presidential Race

Huge Turnout

ArchPundit No Comments

Via Rich

Turnout Very High

Illinois board of elections officials were more willing to talk today about the weather than the voting, saying it’s too soon to get a strong bead on statewide turnout. But press them, and they say there’s little chance a light rain, mid-30s temps, and a possible freeze toward evening will keep the state from breaking a 15-year turnout record today.In Cook County, which encompasses most close-in Chicago suburbs, early ballots cast by suburban voters were, at 60,000, nearly double the county’s previous record of 32,000 cast in the 2006 gubernatorial election. The numbers featured a spike in young voter ballots and college absentee votes, said County Clerk David Orr. That bodes well for Obama, who polls indicate holds a double-digit lead over Hillary Clinton in his true-blue home state.

Cook County voter registration broke records as well, Orr said in a statement, with 1.35 million suburban Cook voters having registered before the deadline.

Turnout in Sangamon County, home of the capital city of Springfield, was also far exceeding turnout in previous years, election officials there said.

Illinois voters don’t typically turn out in huge numbers for primaries, Orr said — in the 2004 primary, barely 29% of registered voters cast ballots. But Orr predicted turnout to bust the 40 percent record set in the state in the 1992 primary, when Bill Clinton won.

High turnout helps Obama and it’ll help downballot with races like IL-3 where Mark Pera is running to beat Dan Lipinski.

Obama Presidential Race

Planned Parenthood Responds to Illlinois Now’s criticism of Obama

ArchPundit 2 Comments

Via Rich

Planned Parenthood’s Blog 

A letter from Planned Parenthood/Chicago Area President and CEO, Steve Trombley:

I’m here to set the record straight about Barack Obama’s record on reproductive choice. Barack Obama has always been committed to a woman’s right to choose. He has a 100% pro-choice voting record both in the U.S. Senate and the Illinois Senate.

Barack Obama has NEVER wavered.

You wouldn’t know this from Illinois NOW’s recent statements on Obama’s record. The fact is that it is NOT Obama who has wavered, Illinois NOW is the one who’s changed its mind.

When Obama was an Illinois state senator he worked with Planned Parenthood to develop a strategy combating a series of extreme anti-choice measures designed to paint pro-choice legislators into a corner. Obama and numerous other state senators voted “present” on these bills in order to protest the politicization of the health and safety of Illinois women. Illinois is one of the few states that allows legislators to voice their objections to legislation through a “present” vote. These “present” votes are counted in the official roll call of the bill, and they DO affect the outcome. For all intents and purposes, they are a vote against the bill. As a matter of fact, Senator Obama wanted to vote “no” on these bills. But, he stood with his colleagues in protest against the anti-choice extremists who controlled the Illinois Senate at the time.

During his time as a state senator, no major pro-choice organization questioned Obama’s present votes. Instead, Obama received endorsements from Personal PAC, NARAL of Illinois PAC, the Illinois Planned Parenthood Council, and, YES, EVEN Illinois NOW.

That’s right! Illinois NOW endorsed Barack Obama in his elections in 1998 and 2002 AFTER he voted “present” on several bills. As Illinois NOW officials have stated, they were aware of the “present” vote strategy, and they still endorsed him. They also endorsed several other prominent Illinois politicians who voted the same way.

It is only after years have past that Illinois NOW has changed its mind. Apparently, these days they don’t agree with the strategy that they originally endorsed. Why didn’t they think that in 1998 or 2002?

I don’t know why Illinois NOW has changed its opinion of Barack Obama since his record has remained the same and since his time as a state senator, he has only demonstrated a full and steady commitment to choice.

I don’t take issue with Illinois NOW having a preference for a woman candidate for President. However, I do take issue with their distortion of Obama’s record.

My organization has not made an endorsement yet because we have two solidly 100% pro-choice candidates running for President. However, we feel it is important to defend Senator Obama (or any candidate) who has stood with us to protect our precious reproductive freedoms.

If we don’t defend people who stand with us, how can we ever expect them to be there when the going gets tough?

Amen.

Illinois Congressional Races

Fascinating IL-14 Kane County Early VotingNumbers

ArchPundit 4 Comments

Very good turnout for Dems.

Kane County only, Early Voters's
R ballots: 5409
D ballots: 4982

Kane County ballots cast in general primaries past.

2006
D:  16876
R:  45445
Total ballots cast: 66331
Total registered: 244891

2004
D: 22526
R: 35772
TB: 59328
TR: 227101

2002
D: 22572
R: 49959
TB: 75413
TR: 219721
Special Election Early Votes 

Rs 5499

Ds 4431

Not sure what this means, but it appears Republicans are pulling Democratic ballots in the Presidential and then Republican in the special. No idea what that means.

Obama

Super Tuesday MO Democratic Presidential Primary

ArchPundit No Comments

It’s going to be close, but the advertising certainly helps Obama–Clinton’s ads are rather unnoteworthy and Obama has McCaskill in them as well as Lacy Clay and the Carnahans supporting him and apparently working pretty hard for him.

Survey USA doesn’t show any closing, but the others show it as a virtual tie and that’s what I’ve been hearing for a week from different campaigns–including statewide campaigns not involved.  Again, Survey USA seems to show a lower African-American turnout than I expect by 4-5 points so I think Obama will take a slight win.

Obama Presidential Race Uncategorized

Super Tuesday Illinois Democratic Presidential Primary

ArchPundit 2 Comments

Obama is going to win, the question is by how much. There were concerns down south of Springfield for a while with Hillary polling well, but that appears to no longer be a problem.  Obama won’t do as well down there as in Chicago, but he apparently has a healthy lead.

Survey USA listed the numbers today at 66 30 and that seems about right to me–the only question was they had African-Americans making up 22% of the voting group, yet in 2004, they were higher than that.  The Survey USA poll that was closest to Obama’s final tally (and the only poll that close) had the percentage at 25%.
In fact, if you look at the Survey USA polls released across the board today, there’s a fairly significant drop in the percentage of African Americans included in the samples in all states with significant African-American populations. Most seem to be 3-5 points of African-Americans as a percentage of the population.

There are a few possible reasons for this. One is that African-Americans are less likely to vote come Tuesday.  Given Obama is on the ballot that is unlikely and counter to everything we’ve seen this cycle.

Or it could mean that samples are having a hard time being polled over the last few days and they are undercounted. If that’s the case, it could be a good day for Obama.

Presidential Race

Super Tuesday Illinois Republican Presidential Primary

ArchPundit No Comments

Illinois is made for a guy like McCain so he should take it walking away. Huckabee will get some of the Family Taxpayers Network crowd, but that’s not even close to a plurality in the Illinois GOP.

Romney is in the bizarre position of being hated by just about everyone including Porno Pete who is having a jihad against him for not hating gay people enough.

With Giuliani out, almost all of that support went to McCain and what little power is left will pull in a good victory for McCain.

The Illinois GOP is terrified of an Obama candidacy because he’ll wipe the floor with whatever guy is on the Republican side and McCain probably does the best in pulling out the base–which isn’t saying much.

The problem for the GOP is that if Obama is the nonimee, there will be an automatic bump in turnout for Democrats without having to work for it.  On the other hand a depressed Republican state party with no real candidate for US Senate is then stuck trying to defend state legislative seats with no one at the top of the ticket with any drawing power or any desire to even bother with Illinois and at least 3 Congressional races that could flip to Democratic with IL-14, IL-11, and IL-10.  Add to that, reasonably good candidates for Dems in IL-16, IL-6 and IL-18 and that’s a hell of a task for them to try and stem the bleeding. Oh, and an outside chance in IL-19.  The only truly safe seats for Republicans look to be IL-15 and IL-13 in such a situation. While some of the seats I identifiedd are very unlikely to flip other than the first three, those others will need resources–resources the national Republican Party doesn’t have nor does the Illinois State Republican Party.

« Previous Page — Next Page »

You Missed

Blog

Trump Campaign “Field”

Blog

Trying 2

Blog

Don’t Call It A Comeback

Uncategorized

More Like This