Winner is the person who turns out their voters
Our survey of likely special election voters in Illinois’ 14 Congressional District shows a dead even race to replace Dennis Hastert, with Bill Foster at 43% and Jim Oberweis at 45% – a statistical tie. Among the critical segment of voters who identify themselves as Independents, Foster leads 49% to 27%.
The current 50-50 nature of the race is underscored by the fact that 41% of voters would prefer a generic Democratic candidate, and 40% would prefer a generic Republican.
Another underlying dynamic is the effect the primaries have had on both candidates popularity. Because of the vitriolic Republican battle, 41% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Oberweis, while 49% have a favorable opinion. For Foster, though, the primary has had a positive effect. In our first survey last April, just 6% of voters had a favorable opinion of Foster. Today, 40% have a favorable opinion – and just 14% have an unfavorable one.
Because Foster is less familiar to special election voters – and because those who do know him are less polarized than those who know Oberweis – Foster has more room to grow once paid communications begin in earnest. Indeed, following brief positive profiles of both candidates, Foster’s support jumps to a near majority (49%), while Oberweis’ support actually dips to 41%.
Voters in the district are also signaling an intense desire for change, as just 21% believe the country is headed in the right direction. This dissatisfaction with the direction of the country is fueled first and foremost by economic concerns, which are cited as the most important issue by 30% of voters. Additionally, 60% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of President Bush.
METHODOLOGICAL NOTE: This memorandum summarizes results from a telephone poll of 525 randomly selected likely voters in Illinois’ 14 Congressional District for the special election on March 8, 2008. Interviewing was conducted February 6-10, 2008. Special care was taken to ensure that the geographic and demographic divisions of the actual electorate are properly represented The estimation error associated with a sample of 525 is 4.3 percent at the 95% confidence interval. This means that in 95 of 100 cases, the results of this poll are within 4.3 points, plus or minus, of the results that would have been
obtained if all probable voters in the special election in Illinois’ 14 Congressional District had been interviewed.
Markos quotes Tom Bowen and I for the article
Last week’s Super Tuesday primary in Illinois delivered still more bad news for Republicans hoping to keep the seat. One hundred thousand primary voters selected the Democratic ballot, compared to 94,000 choosing the Republican one — an unprecedented development. Of those, 75,000 Democrats voted in the House primary compared to 77,000 in the Republican contest, which suggests the slightest of advantages to the Republicans. Yet that alone is amazing to consider, as the largest turnout for a Democratic primary in the district before this year was 20,000.
Democratic voters selected Bill Foster, a physicist who worked on the software used to discover the top quark. He’s also a wealthy businessman who self-funded to the tune of $1 million by the end of 2007. Yet that pales in comparison to the $1.7 million that his Republican opponent, Jim Oberweis, has pumped into his own campaign. Oberweis finally won a contested Republican primary after losing statewide primaries in 2002, 2004 and 2006, largely on the strength of vicious anti-immigrant rhetoric that resonates with much of the GOP’s base.
The Foster campaign is giddy over high unfavorables registered by Oberweis in internal polling due to be released Wednesday, and even more excited by an apparent statistical dead heat in a head-to-head match-up. Moreover, the Oberweis campaign emerged from a primary described by Illinois blogger Larry Handlin of Archpundit as “maybe nuclear.” The intra-party ill feelings have persisted postprimary.
Ultimately, the Foster campaign believes this race will be won on the issue of — surprise! — change. “The ‘change’ thing is a real phenomenon,” said Foster campaign manager Tom Bowen. “Bill is a scientist and a businessman, and he looks like change. Oberweis is such a familiar face in the neighborhood that people have already decided that he can’t bring change.”
ArchPundit