January 2008

Rich on the Black Vote from 11 months Ago

 February 27, 2007

Next, you “experts” assume that just because viable, credible black candidates end up winning overwhelming majorities of black votes that polls currently showing Hillary Clinton leading Obama among African Americans are somehow important.

Wrong again.

In Illinois, at least, large numbers of black voters tend to take their time making up their minds. In political parlance, they ‘’break late.’’

Ten months before the March 2004 U.S. Senate primary (about where we are now before the Iowa caucuses), Obama’s own polls showed him winning just 34 percent of the black vote. About a month before the primary, African-American voters began ‘’breaking’’ in large numbers to his candidacy. As they began focusing on the campaign, black voters saw he was viable, liked his message and a significant percentage finally realized he was African American. He ended up winning just about all their votes.

This same pattern has been repeated time and time again during the past 25 years here. Harold Washington didn’t start off his campaign with the majority of black support against a white female with a huge war chest and the powers of patronage and incumbency, but he certainly ended that way.

Like Byrne, Hillary Clinton is almost universally known and has a strong record of backing issues important to many Democratic African-American voters. Obama is far less known. It’s perfectly natural that, right now, many black voters are siding with Clinton. But, if Obama’s candidacy remains viable through early next year, I’d bet that the vast majority of African-American voters will end up with him.

To recap, because I know you’re all very busy: Black leadership endorsements of white candidates over black opponents are not necessarily important because they don’t automatically translate into black votes; and black voters take their time deciding whether to vote for a fellow African American, but if that candidate looks like a potential winner, they usually end up voting for him or her.

I hope this helps.

And me from November 20th 

Iowa and New Hampshire have no significant black population (outside of Waterloo).  South Carolina is the first state with significant black population that holds a primary and it isn’t  until January 26th meaning it’ll be towards the end of December that  you start to get a sense of what the black population will be doing–and that might carry over until the first week of January given the holidays

Pollster showed the first lead for Obama around January 7th.  And black votes kept breaking so the result is hardly surprising.

Rezko Primer II: Political Donations

The best tally of political donations from Rezko, Rezko companies (Illinois allows corporate donations), and Rezko allies was done by the Sun-Times which tallied the donations and determined there were a total of $168,000 to Obama from Rezko and his associates. Scroll down to the pdf on the left side of the story to see the details.

As of January 20th, Obama had divsested himself of $84,350 of those donations with the latest divested including:

From that money, $10,000 was donated to Obama’s successful run for the Senate in the name of Glenview entrepreneur Joseph Aramanda, the story said.

==============

*$10,500 from Michel Malek, a neurologist and former investor in Rezko Enterprises.

*$2,000 from Fortunee Massuda, a founder of a chain of foot and ankle clinics and a former investor in Rezko Enterprises.

*$3,000 from Imad Almanaseer, a real estate and fast-food impresario and former member of LARC Realty, a Rezko business.

Obama hasn’t given all money related to Rezko back apparently arguing some of it was independent of Rezko–a statement that is probably true given some of the donors knew him independently of Rezko. However, it stands in contrast to Clinton’s decision to divest every dollar tied to Norman Hsu in December. Other’s who had donations returned include Rezko’s companies and direct contributions and donations from:

Michael Winter, who gave $3,000 to Obama’s Senate campaign in June 2003, and Myron Cherry, who gave $500 to Obama in July 2004, have been publicly identified as Individuals “G” and “H,” respectively, in one case against Rezko.

Sun Times June 25, 2007

Cherry is a Clinton supporter, but obviously not tied to her with a connection through Rezko. Cherry has also cooperated with the investigation and is one of the few people to publicly discuss his involvment.

Given there is only about $80,000 left with any tie to Rezko, it would probably be politically smart to donate that amount.


Wrong Messenger

Sending out the guy who created the school uniforms and V-Chip strategy to argue that Bill Clinton fundamentally changed the direction of the country is just a little bit absurd:

“President Clinton put this country on a fundamentally different path. He changed the fiscal nature of this country, he changed the international relations of this country…He left the country on a totally different trajectory where people felt they were prepared for the 21st century.”

The Rezko Primer

—Updated 3/19/08

Since Rezko has become an issue in the Presidential race, I am creating a sort of primer for the relationship between Obama and Rezko over the years. It will only touch on the issues with Rezko and his indictments as related to Obama as I don’t have nearly the time it would take to show Rezko’s involvement with Blagojevich and others.

I. Early Connections–Job Offer

II. Donations to Campaigns

III. Legal work on projects Rezko was involved

IV. Letters of Support for projects Rezko was involved

V. Intern-son of Rezko ally/Obama donor

VI. House Purchase

VII. Land Strip Purchase from Rezko

VIII. Landscaping and Property Maintenance Arrangement

IX: Lot History and Loose Ends

Chicago Tribune on the 3/14/08 Interview on Rezko:

Full Transcript

Audio

Kass

Story

Editorial

Obama fleshed out his relationship with Rezko — including the disclosure that Rezko raised as much as $250,000 for the first three offices Obama sought. But Obama’s explanation was less a font of new data or an act of contrition than the addition of nuance and motive to a long-mysterious relationship.

We fully expect the Clinton campaign, given its current desperation, to do whatever it must in order to keep the Rezko tin can tied to Obama’s bumper.

When we endorsed Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination Jan. 27, we said we had formed our opinions of him during 12 years of scrutiny. We concluded that the professional judgment and personal decency with which he has managed himself and his ambition distinguish him.

Nothing Obama said in our editorial board room Friday diminishes that verdict.

***

We said in that same editorial that Obama had been too self-exculpatory in explaining away his ties to Tony Rezko. And we’ve been saying since Nov. 3, 2006 — shortly after the Tribune broke the story of Obama’s house purchase — that Obama needed to fully explain his Rezko connection. He also needed to realize how susceptible he had been to someone who wanted a piece of him — and how his skill at recognizing that covetousness needed to rise to the same stature as his popular appeal.

Friday’s session evidently fulfills both obligations. Might we all be surprised by some future disclosure? Obama’s critics have waited 16 months for some new and cataclysmic Rezko moment to implicate and doom Obama. It hasn’t happened.

Obama said Friday that voters who don’t know what to make of his Rezko connection should, in the wake of his discussion with the Tribune, “see somebody who is not engaged in any wrongdoing … and who they can trust.” Yes, he said, he comes from Chicago. But he has risen in this corrupt Illinois environment without getting entangled in it.

Obama tries to live by “high ethical standards,” he said. Although “that doesn’t excuse the mistake I made here.”

Obama should have had Friday’s discussion 16 months ago. Asked why he didn’t, he spoke of learning, uncomfortably, what it’s like to live in a fishbowl. That made him perhaps too eager to protect personal information — too eager to “control the narrative.”

Less protection, less control, would have meant less hassle for his campaign. That said, Barack Obama now has spoken about his ties to Tony Rezko in uncommon detail. That’s a standard for candor by which other presidential candidates facing serious inquiries now can be judged.

Chicago Sun-Times on the 3/14/08 Interview on Rezko:

Full Transcript

Audio

Story

Mark Brown

Mary Mitchell

Carol Marin

Lynn Sweet

The best synopsis of the Obama Rezko relationship was done by the Trib on January 23rd:

Both men declined to comment on their once-close friendship. Obama has been accused of no wrongdoing involving Rezko and has insisted that he never used his office to benefit Rezko.

Thus far, there is little in the public record to suggest otherwise, and the few exceptions that have come to light appear minor. On Capitol Hill, Obama once gave a summer internship to the son of a Rezko business associate on Rezko’s recommendation. Earlier, as a state senator, Obama was one of several South Side political and community leaders who wrote state and city officials urging approval of public funding for a senior housing project involving Rezko.

But when Rezko pushed for passage in Springfield of a major gambling measure, Obama vocally opposed it.

Obama publicly apologized for his 2005 property deal with Rezko, calling it “boneheaded” because Rezko was widely reported to be under grand jury investigation at the time. And Obama has given to charities $85,000 in Rezko-linked campaign contributions, including $40,035 last weekend following a published report suggesting that Rezko funneled a $10,000 donation to Obama through a business associate. Aides to Obama say the senator had no knowledge of any such scheme.

Rezko is tied to nearly every major politician in Illinois over the last couple decades going back to Jim Edgar under whom he received his first state contract. Rezko’s reputation as a slumlord largely got started after Obama was not practicing law full time and was largely dealt with by the City of Chicago and not state government entities.

It’s fair to say Obama used poor judgment in buying the strip of land from Rezko, but of the many ties to Rezko in Illinois, a two key things stand out:

  1. Obama did no favors such as providing money from a Member Initiative to Rezko
  2. Obama did not receive any personal benefits from Rezko

The dumbest thing about the relationship from Obama’s standpoint is that one of the most squeaky clean pols in Illinois didn’t think before buying a 10 foot strip of land for above assessed value from a guy about to be indicted. In Illinois that’s amazing, in the Presidential race, it’s the best personal record of any of the candidates.

Lipinski’s Friends and Family Plan Continues

Raised: 158581.00

Spent: 98987.82

On Hand: 377675.22

Not bad on hand numbers, but still anemic fundraising for an incumbent. Mostly PACs and machine types–not terribly surprising
However, the fun is in Daddy Lipinski’s ‘charity’, the All American Eagles which continues to pay Lipinski Chief of Staff Jerry Hurckes for consulting work:

Hurckes, Jerry
7036 W. 96th Street
Oak Lawn, IL 60453
$500.00
6/26/2007
Expenditure
Bill Lipinski’s All-American Eagle
Political Consultant
Bill Lipinski’s All American Eagle
Hurckes, Jerry
7036 W. 96th Street
Oak Lawn, IL 60453
Expenditure Bill Lipinski’s All-American Eagle political consultant
Bill Lipinski’s All American Eagle
Hurckes, Jerry
7030 W. 96t St.
Oak Lawn, IL 60453
$536.05
8/24/2007
Expenditure
Friends for Molaro
parade flags
Friends for Molaro
Hurckes, Jerry
7036 W. 96th Street
Oak Lawn, IL 60453
$500.00
9/26/2007
Expenditure
Bill Lipinski’s All-American Eagle
consulting
Bill Lipinski’s All American Eagle
Hurckes, Jerry
7036 W. 96th Street
Oak Lawn, IL 60453
$1,000.00
11/9/2007
Expenditure
Bill Lipinski’s All-American Eagle
consulting
Bill Lipinski’s All American Eagle
Hurckes, Jerry
7036 W. 96th Street
Oak Lawn, IL 60453
$500.00
12/11/2007
Expenditure
Bill Lipinski’s All-American Eagle
consulting
Bill Lipinski’s All American Eagle
Hurckes, Jerry
7036 W. 96th Street
Oak Lawn, IL 60453
$500.00
12/11/2007
Expenditure
Bill Lipinski’s All-American Eagle
Holiday Gift
>Bill Lipinski’s

$3000 in consulting fees and a $500 ‘holiday gift’

Of course the Pera campaign got something wrong in calling Hurckes a $100,000 per year federal employee. He made more than that:

Jerome R Hurckes, Congressional Staffer – Salary Data

Lipinski, Rep. Daniel (Democrat-Illinois-3rd) 07/01/07 09/30/07 Chief of Staff $26,499.99
Lipinski, Rep. Daniel (Democrat-Illinois-3rd) 01/03/07 03/31/07 Chief of Staff $24,944.44
Lipinski, Rep. Daniel (Democrat-Illinois-3rd) 10/01/06 12/31/06 Chief of Staff $32,099.99
Lipinski, Rep. Daniel (Democrat-Illinois-3rd) 01/01/07 01/02/07 Chief of Staff $735.56
Lipinski, Rep. Daniel (Democrat-Illinois-3rd) 04/01/07 06/30/07 Chief of Staff $26,499.99

Most interesting and most predictable however is the All American Eagles donation to Mike Madigan:

Friends of Michael Madigan 6500 S. Pulaski Road
Chicago, IL 60629
$5,000.00
9/26/2007
Transfer Out
Bill Lipinski’s All-American Eagle

Make no mistake about it, the machine wants to keep Lipinski in that seat until they have a candidate to replace him.

To see how inbred the political organization is check out these posts
Donate now:

A Very Good Critique of the Present Votes

Rich has made a point I didn’t quite know how to reach about Obama and the Present votes

* The rest ended up on the cutting-room floor. What I tried to get across was that Obama kinda hovered over everything when he was in Springfield. He seemed to play by his own rules, which he appeared to believe were more thoughtful or ethical than everyone else’s.

So, to his mind, voting “Present” on some of those bills was wholly justified. Whether it was part of an organized effort by abortion rights groups, or because he thought something in the bill was unconstitutional, or whatever, I think he believed he was doing the right thing.

The problem is that he has to answer for those votes in the real world, not in his own mind. Clinton is using a very common political attack. It’s happened many times before in Illinois, and will happen again.

The bottom line is Obama likes to think too much. He’s enamored with his own intellect to the point where he does things that don’t make political sense, like voting in the US Senate against an interest rate cap on credit cards because the cap was too high. Well, that was the only cap on the table. He should’ve known he was gonna get raked on that one.

He talks about bringing people together and finding consensus, but that usually means taking a somewhat distasteful vote when the final product hits the bricks. Too often, he gets all high-minded and decides he won’t play the game he signed up for.

This cuts both ways–the conceit allows him to think he can transform things, but also gets in his way with others at the same time.

Former Chicago NOW President Switches to Obama from Clinton

[kml_flashembed movie="http://www.youtube.com/v/OVuMYKs8iJs" width="425" height="350" wmode="transparent" /]

Most of us in Illinois already knew this…(update for clarity–we knew the content, not that she was switching–okay, maybe someone in Illinois did or did not know she was switching, but I didn’t)
More from her on Obama’s effort on South Dakota:

[kml_flashembed movie="http://www.youtube.com/v/ILVLzbBcs8A" width="425" height="350" wmode="transparent" /]

Rezko Primer VIII. Landscaping and Property Maintenance Arrangement

The oddest part of the story between Obama and Rezko is that Obama paid for lawn care and coordinated work on a fence between the properties:

The Obamas bought the house in June 2005 for $1.65 million–some $300,000 less than the asking price–and secured a $1.32 million mortgage from Northern Trust.

Rezko’s wife, Rita, bought the adjoining lot the same day, paying the full $625,000 asking price with the help of a $500,000 mortgage from Mutual Bank of Harvey. The Rezkos declined to comment for this article.

The Obamas wanted a fence between the parcels. They hired an attorney and architects within a month of their purchase to seek guidance about the fence from the Commission on Chicago Landmarks.

Michelle Obama had served on the commission from 1998 to March 2005, and she contacted the staff about the fence. On July 15, 2005, a city landmarks deputy commissioner, Brian Goeken, sent a long e-mail to Michelle Obama saying he had gone out one evening to look at the house. He listed suggestions for obtaining a permit for the fence.

Goeken declined to comment for this article.

Over the next six months, the Obamas’ architect had several conversations with city officials about whether to relocate portions of the existing fence or build a new, compatible one.

Architect Wil Taubert said in an interview that he dealt only with the Obamas.

“I knew somebody owned the corner but I never asked who it was,” Taubert said.

Though the Obamas laid the groundwork, Rezko agreed to build and pay for the $14,000 fence that runs along their property line.

Fence required by city

Obama said Rezko paid for the fence because a city ordinance compelled Rezko to fence the line between his vacant lot and their house. He added that both men agreed there were broader reasons for a fence.

“I had had a conversation with him in which I indicated that it probably was important for us to have a separation of the properties because the property was all one piece, it wasn’t really demarcated, and I did think that it was important for there not to be any perception whatsoever that somehow I was having any use of their property,” Obama said.

“Partly because Michelle had already been on Landmarks, partly because we’re well-known neighbors … I felt it was important to make sure that all the T’s were crossed and I’s were dotted in terms of compliance with landmarks,” he said. “I thought it would be embarrassing if somehow whatever fence was erected didn’t comply.”

Obama said he funded the architectural and legal work because “if somebody walked by, they would assume that it was on my property and so it was important from my perspective that it be done right.”

Obama said he didn’t know exactly how much he spent on the architectural, landscaping and legal work that enabled Rezko to acquire a fence permit in January 2006.

“My suspicion is that it would probably be a couple of thousand dollars. On the architectural side it might be more,” he said. “I think legal fees were a couple thousand.”

More…

That month, the fabricator hired by Rezko began building the fence, which sits immediately on top of the property line. Five months later, in May, Advance Welding & Construction sent one of Rezko’s companies a $14,300 invoice that stated, “All work is completed.”

Obama said he and his family have never used the Rezko yard–even for a brief picnic or Frisbee game. But Obama said he pays his landscaper to mow Rezko’s 7,500-square-foot yard.

A person can’t enter the Rezko lot from the street–but Obama’s groundskeeper gets in through the gate that opens from Obama’s lot.

Service mows both lawns

“Right now my landscaper who comes and does all my work, I have asked him to go ahead and mow the lawn on the other side,” Obama said.

“My intention was to have the landscaper figure out some pro-rata cost for that mowing and send that bill to Rezko,” Obama said. “I just haven’t had time to do it.”

The lawn-mowing bill that he plans to send Rezko “can’t be more than three or four hundred, a thousand dollars,” Obama added.

The bill for the new fence has yet to be paid, according to Advance President Raymond Oshana and Michael Sreenan, an attorney who represented the Rezkos in transactions pertaining to the fence and garden lot.

That may be because Tony Rezko is embroiled in debt and business difficulties as well as legal trouble. The federal charges against Rezko include allegations that he defrauded a lender to keep one business venture afloat.

But the garden lot may yet be developed.

Sreenan and a Rezko company accountant in October formed a corporation that Sreenan said will try to purchase the lot from Rita Rezko and build there.

While no sale has taken place, “We’re hoping to move ahead on development,” Sreenan said.

It was premature to discuss details, Sreenan said, but one thing was sure about this potential venture: “It will be entirely separate from Mr. Rezko.”

Why this aspect of the situation is the oddest is that as time continued, it became more clear that Rezko was in a lot of trouble.  Previous to the middle of 2005, the degree of Rezko’s problems were somewhat unclear.  The actual actions that the indictments cover center around the 2003-2005 time range. The earliest actions Rezko was indicted for include pay to play schemes immediately after Rod Blagojevich took office in early 2003.

While there was a cloud of suspicion in 2005, the situation was pretty unclear–by 2006 it became clear there was a wide ranging investigation of Rezko and he would probably be indicted.  As such, continuing the relationship even in such a case where the financial outlays were Obamas and it involved being paid back was poor judgment as Obama has admitted.  However, there is no evidence of Obama benefiting from the relationship on a personal or political level over that of a typical relationship with a donor.