2006

Trib Polling

ArchPundit October 21, 2006 1 Comment

Roskam in lead, Bean way ahead

From the analysis section

Once finely balanced between the city and the suburbs, the political scales of metropolitan Chicago have been tipping ever more Democratic, and fierce congressional races in two long-safe Republican bastions now are putting that trend to an important new test.

What no one pays attention to is how these two Districts have voted recently. In Illinois 8 the 2000 Presidential vote (converted for the new boundaries) was 56-42. In 2004 it was 56-44. Republican, but not overwhelmingly so like say IL-5 in which 2/3 of voters voted Democratic in both years for President.

IL-06 is even closer and many ignore the partisan changes going on there. In 2000 converted to the 2002 boundaries it was 53% Bush to 44% Gore. In 2004 it went 53% Bush to 47% Kerry. The Cook partisan index is R +3 which is a Republican advantage, but not overwhelming.

In terms of numbers, no one seems to have hardened support beyond about 40% of the voters and for McSweeney differing polls are giving him pretty divergent numbers–my guess, and just a guess since the Trib gives no detailed numbers, is that his name recognition is still relatively low.

Dumb Move DCCC

ArchPundit October 21, 2006 1 Comment

Let the press in–or it becomes the story

More Nativist Every Day

ArchPundit October 21, 2006 2 Comments

Fererners!, Fererners people!

Roskam told the crowd at the GOP’s campaign headquarters that the “entire world is watching this campaign” against Democrat Tammy Duckworth for the west suburban seat being given up by retiring Rep. Henry Hyde.

As proof, he said a radio producer told him that Al Jazeera–the Arabic language news network–had covered his debate with Duckworth last week. The crowd gasped.

“Now that’s a real interesting group that would come out and cover the 6th Congressional District,” Roskam observed. “Al Jazeera has an interest in who wins in the 6th Congressional District? I’m telling ya, let’s send them an answer, whaddya say?” The crowd cheered.

They Write Letters

ArchPundit October 21, 2006 No Comments

boy do they write letters

Dear Friends,

My name is Nicole Curtis-Torres. I?m a lifelong resident of Wheaton. Some of you may know my brother Master Sergeant Brian Curtis. Brian, like me, grew up in Wheaton and lived here until devoting himself full-time to the United States Army.

I am so proud of my brother ? he is my hero. He?s been serving in the military for 20 years ? 13 of which have been full-time in the Army. He is about to go back to Baghdad for his second tour. During this tour, he will be leading a team in weapons cache and IED disposal. IEDs have killed and injured so many of our soldiers and my brother works to make Iraq safe for our soldiers.

My brother selflessly puts his life on the line for all of us. He, like all of our soldiers, has made many great personal sacrifices for our country.

We need someone who has served in Iraq, we need someone who has seen the daily fighting in Iraq. Tammy has been there and she understands the sacrifices our Soldiers have made.

While at a coffee in Bloomingdale, I stood up to tell Tammy and the audience about Brian. While talking in front of the group, I became overwhelmed with emotion and began to cry. Tammy got off her chair, walked over and gave me a hug. For the first time, someone understood what I was going through.

Talking with her that night was the first time I was able to talk to someone who understood what it was like to have a loved one serving overseas. It was the first time I felt a connection with someone. Tammy understands how much I miss my brother, how proud I am and how angry I am.

When I talk to Tammy, I?m not talking to a politician ? I?m talking to someone who understands how much I miss my brother. Tammy isn?t a politician, she?s a real person who understands what it is like to have a loved one in Iraq.

Talking to her was the first time I could say, ?I?m scared as hell.? She understands what I go through everyday. He?s my brother ? he?s my hero. This has been my own daily struggle and Tammy understands what it feels like.

Despite political differences, one thing all Americans can agree on is that we are all proud of those who serve in our armed forces. This fall, I will be supporting Tammy Duckworth because she is the type of person we need in Congress ? she understands what is going on in Iraq.

Thank you,

Nicole Curtis-Torres

What Do Blagojevich, Davlin, and Weller Have In Common

ArchPundit October 20, 2006 19 Comments

They were all screwed by rumors that were amazingly widespread and false.

First, I’m sorry–my judgment held up in the first two, but this time it didn’t. Read below in another post for how it unfolded and feel free to remind me from time to time.

From Sweet:

Rep. Jerry Weller (R-Ill.), hit with rumors that he was somehow involved in the page scandal, issued a statement Thursday saying he was not a factor — but a former page or intern he sponsored was subject to some questionable behavior by another lawmaker.

With rumors racing across a number of left-wing blogs naming Weller, his campaign manager Steve Shearer said there were no facts to back up any story.

This has “nothing to do with Jerry Weller doing anything,” Shearer said.

With the blogosphere pushing unsubstantiated rumor, Shearer said “it is a new way of political assassination.”

Shearer released the statement after the blog entries were multiplying and he was flooded with calls from reporters.

“There have been all kinds of wild rumors circulating over the past week,” Shearer said.

“We believe we have now gotten to the bottom of this and other reporters who have researched this agree — that what we have been told is that a page or intern who was sponsored by Cong. Weller was inappropriately invited to a social event with another congressman.”

I checked this out with a few folks and that seems to be the consensus. And the Weller campaign handled this pretty much textbook wise by just rolling with the punch and keeping on the facts instead of trying to blame anyone.