2006

Some Pretty Simple Points about the Obama House

It’s a little hard to figure how the Tribune is letting Byrne get away with simply false assertions in his last column, but it’s also hard to figure the Kass column didn’t get toned down

The fact is the Obamas and the Rezkos bought property in a fashionable South Side neighborhood next to each other on the same day, from the same lot, and the Obamas came out the winners.

Obama bought his home at a $300,000 discount. Rezko bought the adjoining lot from the same sellers at full price. One got a juicy bargain. The other overpaid. Legend has it that Rezko never paid full price for anything in his life, so he starts with Obama?

I don’t dispute that Rezko was trying to get in with Obama, that’s his style, but there’s a simple point the original story made:

In the past, the two lots had been sold as a single estate. But in 2005, the owners listed the two parcels for sale separately.

The plots were for sale separately from the beginning before Obama would have even known of the property.

Later, it occurs to the senator that he’d like a slice of Rezko’s acreage to enlarge his estate. Obama’s appraiser told him the fair market value of that slice was $40,500.

Since that’s one-sixth of the Rezko side, it means Rezko paid $625,000 for property that was actually worth $243,000. That would make Rezko a complete fool. But he’s no fool.

Obama then offers to pay more than $100,000 for a slice of land that wasn’t worth that much, because he wanted to be fair to Rezko.

Hmm.

Hmmm…John Kass, unlike Zorn just a few days ago, didn’t call anyone to discuss how real estate assessments are done. Zorn did a good job describing the confusing world of assessments by, ta-da, asking someone who knows. A strip of land like was sold to Obama isn’t worth just one-sixth of the value of the land because it cannot be used for anything by itself–and so appraisers use formulas to figure out what the value of that land is. Obama paid nearly 2 1/2 times that value to Rezko. The sum of the parts of a property don’t simply add up to the value of the property. Anyone who has ever dealt with an easement or similar situation to Obama would know this and any property assessor could give you an answer as to whether the initial assessment was reasonable. Kass didn’t do that. Instead he just tried to “raise questions.”

That’s the other thing, the fence. Obama says his engineer and architect planned it, and then Rezko put it up for him.

And what if Rezko had put up a fence that didn’t meet Landmarks standard–what would Kass be saying? I have an idea and so did Obama. In this case Obama worked to ensure the fence would fit Landmarks requirements–a situation which also affects the value of his property whether it resides on his property or not. Who got the benefit of that–Rezko.

Rezko already had to fence in the yard–that’s a city requirement to combat illegal dumping.

I don’t have any question that Rezko was trying to do favors for Obama, the thing is Obama did everything to make sure no favors were done. He could have asked him not to buy the property and probably wishes he did.

All that said, Obama responded to a property for sale, bought it and had someone else buy the adjoining property probably to get a good in with Obama. And Obama has done everything above board including paying more than the estimated value of the land he bought.

The 72 Hour Machine

Very good, not a miracle.

If I wasn’t involved in a couple other projects I’d actually like to do some research on this. The Republicans have sold the operation as a magic bullet and people have bought it because they’ve done better than expected in 2 elections in a row. Reporters buy into the myth more than the reality because they aren’t much better at numbers than the average voter.

The thing is I’m not sure it’s really the key. It’s a good system and they do a decent job with it, but like all turnout operations, personal contact is more important than mail and most micro-targeting is by mail or phone. And I think this is the story everyone misses. What really got the GOP over the hump in 2002 was national security. In 2004 though, it was something related, but not the same as the 72 hour project–it was that people organized themselves. People from churches got together and canvassed on their own (someone tell Dennis Byrne-it’s a scandal). The self-organizing realized one of the aspects of the Dean campaign that the Dean campaign never fully realized.

How much difference can turnout really make? Consider the punishing arithmetic. Take a House race that this year would otherwise be 52-48 Democratic. What would turnout efforts have to achieve to overturn the putative victory?

Use white evangelical Protestants as an example. They comprised 23 percent of the national electorate in both 2000 and 2004, so let’s say they are the same proportion of our imaginary Congressional District. Say the 72-hour program was spectacularly — increasing their turnout by 20 percent while every other segment of the electorate held constant. In that case, evangelicals would constitute 26.4 percent of the electorate.

Assume for the sake of argument they continued to give the GOP the same 78 percent of their votes they gave to George Bush in 2004. Such heroic efforts would still result in a Democratic victory. And if white evangelical Protestants only offered 68 percent of their votes to Republicans, all that work would result in less than a 1-point shift in the vote. And that calculation makes the very unlikely assumption that one side enjoys great success while the other does nothing.

How likely is a 20 percent increase in turnout based on a GOTV effort? The best serious academic estimate is that all the GOTV work in the presidential campaign of 2004 increased turnout not by 20 percent, but by about 3 percent.

If you go back to 1994 the polling wasn’t so horrible in some respects–it didn’t look like Democrats were all going to stay home, but what it did show was some small differences in motivation that over the country led to a big trend in terms of seats. Democrats didn’t all stay home, but a small, but higher than usual did stay home more than usual and a small, but higher number of Republicans came out that year than usual and that led to what looked like a landslide. And in one sense it was.

With the advent of modern databases and easy to merge demographic information, micro-targeting can be done in a number of ways and from what I understand the Republican system is a bit different from most of the Democratic micro-targeting, but not necessarily much more effective. The biggest advantage comes from having it done relatively broadly.

I bet the biggest thing in 2004 was the self-organization and I think Karl Rove knows that too. That’s one reason he plays to the base so heartily is he knows that motivated volunteers can often do more by personal contact than the 30th mailer one receives in a campaign season.

Do Not Immitate Other Posters

I just had someone try and pass themselves off as another poster. Don’t do that or I will ban you. Seriously, it’s not funny.

Update: Okay, so I overreactied perhaps–there appears to be some bug in the system where the last posters name is showing up in the comment box–so before posting make sure it’s either your handle or empty. Thanks.

Obamania

Join us for a
Get Out The Vote Rally for
Claire McCaskill
Just 48 hours before Election Day!

With special guest
Senator Barack Obama

Sunday, November 5th
4:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m.

World’s Fair Pavilion
Forest Park
St. Louis, MO

Tickets here

And Maureen Dowd has a column on him today noting that experience isn’t always the best thing…Rumsfeld, Cheney, Rice….etch.

Obama’s Pricey Real Estate

He paid Rezko more for the land than it was assessed at. It’s a scandal! And Obama pays to mow Tony’s lawn. Sort of a different direction in the benefits for anyone else dealing with Rezko.

Sort of the anti-Blagojevich. The story is well written by the Gibson and Jackson with a descriptive title instead of exploitive. On the other hand DayBreak went out and tried to create a controversial headline. The story is good and necessary, but it’s also good in tracking down the details.

It seems to me that Rezko wanted to get his hands on Obama, and Obama kept a decent distance given the details. If only some others were that smart.

Don’t Confuse me with being a fan of Kerry

I tend to like to call him Liveshot–hysterical numbers from post Katrina polling at Zogby that tells of how big of a problem Kerry created for himself in 2004:

In a sign of just how severe the damage to the President’s standing caused by Katrina is, the Zogby America survey finds that, despite his re-election last fall, President Bush would lose to every modern president since Jimmy Carter, the one-term Democrat who left office amid record unpopularity and a presidency rated, at the time, dismally. He would also lose to his own father, who left office amid an economic recession triggered, in part, by a devastating hurricane.

However, in one of the few bright spots for the President, he would still beat Massachusetts Democrat John Kerry, by a narrow, one-point margin.

It’s nice that he decided to fight back. Over two years too late.