The Bitter Contest: Democrats Against Blagojevich or Republicans Against Judy
ArchPundit
Besides Conley and some random grumblings, I’m actually surprised there isn’t more bitterness at the Governor by some Democrats.
On the other hand, it would appear the ICFST is in great shape and will continue it’s long tradition of looking a gift horse in the mouth.
As someone commenters over at Capitol Fax might make it sound, the faithful of both parties are more likely to vote for the candidate of the other party.
There is some chance this might happen, though not in as many numbers as the chicken little theorists believe. Given Judy’s social moderation, some conservatives might find Rod slightly less objectionable given he’s held the line on sales and income taxes. I believe Illinois Policy Institute actually rated Judy below Rod, but I can’t find the page—I’m sure Greg can correct me if I misremembered.
And given Rod’s not popular with many state workers, there’ll be some crossover there–but more likely is that key constintuencies won’t be as mobilized.
There are a thousand things that can change between now and November such as if indictments hit the Administration–I’m betting not, but it’s a possibility. Assuming things stay the same, the challenge is very different between the two parties.
Rod has one key advantage in that the biggest chunk of support organizationally in the party is generally behind him. Madigan sees his reelection as a good thing, Stroger’s replacement will be on the ballot pushing the Machine Remnants, and SEIU is strongly behind him. The national effects are also an intriguing aspect of this–Rod can run against Judy and the Georges (Bush and Ryan). Given the President’s approval is in the tank and Bush’s endearing refusal to actually change anything that he does seems to mean that’s not going to change between now and then.
On the flip side, Judy is generally well liked by women in the suburbs which is a key demographic for Rod. He’s not going to do well downstate this time–just look at the primary results. That married woman demographic in the suburbs that is a key swing vote is generally tailor made for a moderate Republican like Topinka.
I do see a double problem for Judy–with the President’s rating in the tank a lot of Republicans will be ambivalent on that and with a moderate, conservatives have little reason to be excited except in Congressional Districts 6 and 8. Judy has to excite a base that is increasingly conservative.
It turns then into a question of what kind of election will this be.
If it is an election at the center, Judy gets the upperhand by being able to attract swing voters. If it is an election of the bases, Rod has the upperhand with a stronger base that is motivated to get the vote out. What will it be?
I’ll let you know late on November 7th.