March 2006

A Very Fair Column, Stroger Needs to Release His Medical Records

Lynn Sweet argues he should release his records to demonstrate whether he can actually serve or not.

Let me add, given this news, so does Lane Evans. I thought it was a cheap shot to go after his health as long as he was making meetings and votes. If he is starting to miss them, he should allow the voters to judge. Most likely, it is time to step down–if he does it now, the Party can choose a candidate to run in his place. While not ideal, it isn’t exactly a Lipinski switch either.

He’s Done

More fun from the FTN:

Mr. Brady just needs to understand that if Topinka does win on Tuesday, and Brady finishes no better than third ? his name is Mud. He?s done. And he WILL have a Primary challenge for his State Senate seat in 2008.

No. I’m not a fan, but Bill Brady works hard and he fits his District very well. He has good ties with State Farm and the Republicans there. There might be some grumbling about him from time to time from the McLean County oldtimers, but Family Taxpayers Network is a non-entity in McLean County. If anything, his relatively good run has earned him some more respect.

This entire screed by FTN is one of the most over the top tantrums I’ve ever seen thrown in politics. At least when Kit Bond went nuts in 2000, everyone knew he was sauced and he could joke about it.

It’s not as if its some over the top supporters. Roeser is the FTN and Roeser handpicked Oberweis because he’d do what Roeser would tell him to do. Roeser interviewed Rauschenberger and as weird as Steve has become, he wouldn’t give up his platform for Roeser’s. Obie would. FTN’s former Director is Obie’s campaign manager. FTN is the Oberweis campaign minus the ice cream.

Circle Em Up!

AND FIRE!

Thank God for Jack Roeser I couldn’t make this stuff up.

We have just a few questions:

If Bill Brady isn?t in cahoots with Judy Baar Topinka and staying in the race just to help her win by splitting the conservative vote ? then why has Brady so frequently attacked only Jim Oberweis? (It?s simply wrong to say it?s because Topinka gets no conservative votes. Polls prove that Topinka gets lots of conservatives ? the uninformed ones ? therefore all the more reason that an honest conservative would take Topinka to task first.)

I’m one of the few who don’t see a bright future for Bill Brady. Yeah, he’s an improvement over Gordon Ropp, but that’s damning at feint praise at best. Gordon was a nice enough fellow, but his biggest concern in the world was the state soil. That said, Brady isn’t in “cahoots” with anyone, but his own ambition–and he might just prove me wrong.

With something like 12 million people in Illinois, Jim Edgar and Bob Kjellander, along with all the other surviving dinosaurs lucky enough not to be wearing orange jumpsuits ? decided to get behind the one person with less integrity than Rod Blagojevich.

Never mind that Edgar handed Roeser his ass in a primary and remains one of the most popular statewide officials to have held office, he’s evil because he’s not as doctrinaire as Jack would like.

Before Jack continues his whinefest, he might notice that while Kjellander might be a schmuck, Jack is the one who seems to think he’s above the law and continues to not comply with fines levied by the State Board of Elections.

It’s really, really tough to break campaign finance laws in Illinois. The only way to do it is to not disclose your donations properly and Jack was talented enough to find a way to do that, but feels he can lecture the rest of the state on ethics.

Most bizarrely, the man has me defending Bill Brady, a guy who has his most notable achievement as starting a Bible Study debate between his supporters and Sam Ewing’s supporters in the 15th District’s Republican primary in 2000 resulting hysterically in the election of Tim Johnson. The Pantagraph has a long history of hysterical letters to the editor, but that series is one of the best I’ve seen.

What’s really beautiful though, is that if Oberweis somehow were able to pull off a win, he’s now angered just about every Republican who won’t vote for him making an already easy task of beating him, even easier.

It’s a beautiful piece of work to watch–from a distance. Sort of like a Supernova.

Claypool Rejoinder

One of the big questions on any poll is what the likely voter model is. In essence to get a fair idea of who is likely to vote you screen respondents for their past behavior, interest in the election, and even self-report likelihood in some cases. Claypool sent out a rejoinder to the Trib poll stating:

For those who work closely with election stats, the poll published in this morning?s Chicago Tribune raises more questions than it answers. But, when you put it together with our own tracking data from this past week, it begins to paint a picture of how Forrest will win this race.

Our poll, a more extensive and in-depth survey of those who actually have a history of primary voting, shows Forrest just one point ahead of John Stroger. And, among the subset of voters who say they?re ?paying close attention to the race,? and are likely to vote on Tuesday, he enjoys a 7 point lead. With a sample of 700 voters conducted by the Bennenson Strategy Group, we feel very confident in these numbers.

When we re-weight the Tribune poll to more accurately reflect the turnout numbers from past primary elections, the newspaper?s numbers come out looking a lot like ours:

46 Stroger/40 Claypool (with a 5% margin of error).

Meanwhile, what do we make of the newest voice to weigh in on the race, that of former President Bill Clinton? Clearly, President Clinton is repaying an old political debt with his radio ad for John Stroger. And as someone who doesn’t live in Cook County or pay taxes here, he couldn’t be expected to know the facts of Stroger’s record.

Ultimately, it?s the people of Cook County who will decide this election. And Forrest has the support of those who care about improving health care for our neediest residents, about stopping the beating of young men and women at the Juvenile Detention Center, who care about the ever-rising tax bills that burden working folks throughout Cook County.

With one week to go, we are more confident than ever that Forrest will prevail, winning the opportunity to fix what?s wrong with Cook County.

Obviously, I’m biased, but without examining the entire poll I cannot and wouldn’t vouch for the above without seeing the full polling results. It’s not implausible, but it’s also highly dependent upon how strong and successful the GOTV effort for Stroger is–if SEIU and Madigan are working hard for him, he’s likely to get a good turnout. If not, it’s hard to imagine that John Stroger has the sort of passionate following to bring out voters not dependent upon his position without help.

This year’s election seems especially dependent upon turnout. That’s a cliche in talking about elections, but there doesn’t appear to be a strong sense of voter excitement about this years primary election. If there are two groups excited, it’s probably Democrats at the left end of the Party and Republicans at the Right end of their Party. For the Republicans that means an advantage for Oberweis, for Democrats I sense that might help Claypool with white liberal voters, but it’s hard to tell. The biggest benefactor of such a turnout would likely be Giannoulis in the Dem Treasurer race (I have no real horse in that race).

Gubernatorial Poll

Same numbers for Judy as in the Post-Dispatch poll and Oberweis is at 21–which is within the margin of error with the P-D poll. The key difference comes in Gidwitz being down at 9 points and Brady at 15. Taking Judy as an established person in people’s minds, she’s unlikely to get much of the undecideds. The way this poll looks, Oberweis would need nearly all of the undecideds.

Brady’s improvement is interesting with being close enough to Oberweis to legitimately say there isn’t much difference between them so it’s not reasonable to ask him to drop out. That helps Topinka by keeping two social conservatives splitting that block of votes. Gidwitz shows no movement in this one so it’s unclear if his commercials are having an impact, but it can’t help Topinka with the undecideds.

That said, the real question to me is whether or not there is going to be a decent turnout. A few commenters have mentioned this over at Rich’s and I’m just not sure that the moderate Republicans are fired up for this race and if they stay home just by a few percentages, it could give Oberweis enough of a boost with a very hardcore passionate support base to pull out a victory. Not only is it possible, but we’ve seen conservative candidates in Illinois Republican primaries pull this off fairly often. The big challenge here is whether Brady will pull enough conservative votes from Oberweis. Even without that Oberweis may just be toxic enough in his own party that there is a hard cap he can’t get beyond, but the poll indicates a 44 % approval amongst Republicans which is a problem in a general election, but in a primary, it’s probably high enough given he needs people who would think enough of him to vote for him.

Busy Day and busier news

Stroger Results, Stroger in Hospital. I wish him a full recovery.

For today, if not longer, I’d prefer not to discuss the health issue on the race since the entire situation is in a bit of limbo and that would be distasteful, so let’s keep comments more on the general race.

The Trib poll shows a 10 point lead for Stroger at 47 and Claypool at 37. Not great news for Claypool, but also not out of what I’d expect with a week out. Claypool isn’t going to win with a wide margin, but he needs to catch fire and cross the finish line by a strong media campaign and decent turnout in areas he does best.

Claypool has AKP doing his media as the article notes (that’s Axelrod) and Wilhelm and Emanuel backing him, but Stroger has the Speaker, SEIU and less important folks like the Governor (the Gov doesn’t have the ground troops the Speaker has–let’s face it. I don’t know the level of commitment Madigan has to this race, but it could be a key factor. Claypool really needs a good turnout in the suburbs and good media to make the final case for his candidacy.

The reason I’m strongly behind Claypool is that the County Government is responsible for several issues that are essential to progressive constituencies. First and foremost is that the County is stuck as the health care provider of last resort and given skyrocketing medical costs, providing that in the most efficient means possible under the system as it stands is the best way to ensure health care for the poor in Cook County. Stroger is not committed to basic cost savings that involve sharing administrative functions and rigorous screening of employees for qualifications. Like much of County Government, it’s a dumping ground for patronage, patronage the health care system cannot afford.

A second reason is Claypool’s committment to the environment and the Forest Preserves in Particular. While I only lived in Cook County for a short time, I always found those to be a wonderful resource. The Sierra Club goes into details specific proposals Claypool would initiate that Stroger has been absolutely resistant to for his entire time in office. Using the Forest Preserve as a dumping ground for patronage employees treats the local environment as a political tool and not a conservation tool and the shape of the preserves demonstrates that well.

When working with relatively small portions of land, maintaining the ecosystem is especially delicate work because a little damage goes a long way. The current moratorium is a long term money loser because by ignoring that maintenance the areas become more difficult to repair over the long run and the costs don’t just increase, but increase at an increasing rate.

Often times when people propose cost cutting, people take that as a conservative position–and often it is. In this case, just as Dean argued, spending on unsustainable items in a manner that cannot be maintained only makes the provision of the most vital services more at risk. The progressive thing to do is to prioritize spending and focus on what best serves the constituents.