One of the big questions on any poll is what the likely voter model is. In essence to get a fair idea of who is likely to vote you screen respondents for their past behavior, interest in the election, and even self-report likelihood in some cases. Claypool sent out a rejoinder to the Trib poll stating:
For those who work closely with election stats, the poll published in this morning?s Chicago Tribune raises more questions than it answers. But, when you put it together with our own tracking data from this past week, it begins to paint a picture of how Forrest will win this race.
Our poll, a more extensive and in-depth survey of those who actually have a history of primary voting, shows Forrest just one point ahead of John Stroger. And, among the subset of voters who say they?re ?paying close attention to the race,? and are likely to vote on Tuesday, he enjoys a 7 point lead. With a sample of 700 voters conducted by the Bennenson Strategy Group, we feel very confident in these numbers.
When we re-weight the Tribune poll to more accurately reflect the turnout numbers from past primary elections, the newspaper?s numbers come out looking a lot like ours:
46 Stroger/40 Claypool (with a 5% margin of error).
Meanwhile, what do we make of the newest voice to weigh in on the race, that of former President Bill Clinton? Clearly, President Clinton is repaying an old political debt with his radio ad for John Stroger. And as someone who doesn’t live in Cook County or pay taxes here, he couldn’t be expected to know the facts of Stroger’s record.
Ultimately, it?s the people of Cook County who will decide this election. And Forrest has the support of those who care about improving health care for our neediest residents, about stopping the beating of young men and women at the Juvenile Detention Center, who care about the ever-rising tax bills that burden working folks throughout Cook County.
With one week to go, we are more confident than ever that Forrest will prevail, winning the opportunity to fix what?s wrong with Cook County.
Obviously, I’m biased, but without examining the entire poll I cannot and wouldn’t vouch for the above without seeing the full polling results. It’s not implausible, but it’s also highly dependent upon how strong and successful the GOTV effort for Stroger is–if SEIU and Madigan are working hard for him, he’s likely to get a good turnout. If not, it’s hard to imagine that John Stroger has the sort of passionate following to bring out voters not dependent upon his position without help.
This year’s election seems especially dependent upon turnout. That’s a cliche in talking about elections, but there doesn’t appear to be a strong sense of voter excitement about this years primary election. If there are two groups excited, it’s probably Democrats at the left end of the Party and Republicans at the Right end of their Party. For the Republicans that means an advantage for Oberweis, for Democrats I sense that might help Claypool with white liberal voters, but it’s hard to tell. The biggest benefactor of such a turnout would likely be Giannoulis in the Dem Treasurer race (I have no real horse in that race).