2004

Stunning Bean Poll

So stunning Lynn Sweet even breaks her usual rule of avoiding writing about them:

Bean has significant potential. The voters have an open mind. About 46 percent would consider someone else or were open to replacing Crane.

Some other gleanings:

*Some 35 percent agreed that Crane has done a good job in Congress and deserves to be elected again; contrast that to 51 percent who said that Crane has been a congressman for too long and it is time to give someone else a chance.

*Almost half had no opinion when asked a variety of questions about things they liked or disliked about Crane. That suggests, to Bean’s potential advantage, that Crane is not on voters’ radar.

*Some 47 percent said Crane worked hard for the district; the same number said his best years are behind him.

Smart move to the campaign to give Sweet the full results. Very smart. These results show a great potential for a win by Bean. Most importantly, it demonstrates that LaHood, while he may regret saying it, was right. Crane hasn’t been watching over his District and with the rapid population growth and shifts, he’s a non-entity and being as conservative as he is, he’s a great target for a moderate Democrat.

A 35% approval rating for an incumbent is a huge problem. Anything below 50 is a bad sign. Over 50% think it is time for someone else.

Vote Early, Vote Often

So, if those of you in Illinois are noticing a lack of political advertising, let me offer your choice of ads to air—and you can vote with your pocketbook to put them on the air. Jeff Smith is asking you to choose which ad you like, and then to donate to put it on the air. Jeff was within $4000 of the biggest take for the last quarter and is number one with cash on hand going into the last two weeks of the campaign. He hasn’t focused on TV, but this is a way to make it on TV and pay for it and choose an ad people actually like the most.

I’m leaning to Fire Bush, though High Energy probably captures the essence of my friend better.

You Do Realize

That there can’t be a nominee for the Republicans until the first week in August if Dillard says no? Unless the GOP is going to try and announce while Barack is about to give the key note speech which would further consign the sacrificial lamb, errrr..I mean candidate to anonymity.

Illinois Senate Republican Nomination Cattle Call 7-21

1. Salvi. Until someone connects him to McCulloch and then he’ll be toxic to conservatives.

2. Jack! Well, hell, he still is the candidate maybe he really is getting back in since there is no reason he couldn’t have sent in the damn paperwork before.

3. Dillard. Probably getting out. Who can blame him. Wingnuts in Leader Board want to open his divorce files. Unclear if they are closed. Of course, that hasn’t stopped the Leader before.

4. Elizabeth Gorman. Will raise name recognition and might not hurt her since everyone pretty much understands this is a suicide mission.

5. John Cox. No one likes him, but what the hell, it might be funny to watch him blow a million of his own cash.

6. Robert Plummer. Edwardsville Businessman. Really, he isn’t a trial lawyer and he works in Edwardsville. Who knew?

7. Corinne Wood. An answer to the question of whether social conservatives might actually ever vote for Barack Obama.

8. The OberFurher. Would the President show up in Illinois to campaign against this guy?

9. Borling. McCain might bring some attention to him.

10. George Wendt. I told you I was going to do it.

11. Jonathan Wright. Who? What? Where?

12. Kathuria. Resume line, Came in third to President Obama in the 2004 Senate race and surprisingly strong libertarian Jerry Kohn.