The Good News and The Bad News
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Glenn Poshard seems to have gotten rid of the bad facial hair is the good news. The bad news the Obama Campaign misspells his name.
2004
Bring In Cheney–That’ll Help
Given the most recent Rasmussen poll squares with the other polls (also calls into question the Rassmussen poll that had Jack at 40)
Kerry 54%
Bush 38
Having a high profile event with Cheney is, well, stupid.
Then again, Jack is polling below Bush. Tieing himself to Bush gives him nothing to win this election on. The snarky bits about George Soros or Hillary Clinton coming from the campaign aren’t going to work when either has a higher rating than who you are raising cash with.
Jack! is also promising to match every dollar received in donations with $.50.
Now, the millionaire amendment in campaign finance reform is hard to analyze, but that would indicate to me that once this occurs, Jack! triggers higher limits for Obama to exploit. So instead of being limited to $2000 per individual, if Ryan kicks in $509,320 it is $4000. At $1,018,640 its $6,000 and at only $2,037,280 Obama can collect $12,000 a person. At $5,093,200 the limit is $12,000,000 and unlimited party coordinated funds kick in. How realistic is that? If Ryan is planning on spending $15,000,000 in the general–not a huge sum kicks it up to about that. Even at the $3,000,000 for the general he originally pledged, Obama’s collection limits go up. There are some cases where if Obama can raise so much, the limits go back down–but don’t negate early contributions.
Jack has to announce his intentions and once he makes a promise like he does above, he’s going to have file expected amounts and the limits kick in.
Disclaimer: There are about a thousand things I’m leaving out here.
But in a case with a national star running, Ryan spending his own money is going to give Obama the ability to raise high dollar donations again. Now, the one issue there is the less he has to raise nationally, the more available for other races so donate at the right….(sneaky heh?)
Ryan Custody Records
10 of 43 Documents are recommended to be unsealed by the referee. The judge now will decide whether to use that recommendation or go further.
A couple problems here for Jack! First, we will see probably the items not directly related to his son’s personal issues so anything beyond the child’s medical conditions, etc will be open. If there is anything embarrassing, he takes a hit for not being forthcoming. If nothing, he looks sympathetic, but commentators will cluck their tongue (including me) that there was a better way–reinforcing the amateur hour tag his campaign has gotten to date.
Second, if it fits with the file that is floating out there, and there is anything in the floating file that is embarrassing and not released, the floating file is confirmed as accurate and will probably be used by the press.
Unfortunately for Jack! while releasing the whole file might be uncomfortable, nothing happening now looks to stop the drip, drip, drip.
Unfair, yeah, but who said campaigns were fair? This campaign has already surpassed the Hull campaign in handling these issues poorly and seems on track to make the Jim Ryan campaign of 2002 (one I’ve called the 2nd worst campaign ever (Bill Simon being the worst)) look like a model of good practices.
Remember That Name
Via Obamablog
Bob Herbert at the NY Times writes a love letter to Barack Obama.
There’s No Sex In the Champagne Room
With a nod towards Chris Rock, this story at the Smoking Gun just cracks me up.
Connection Problems
Not consistent so back Friday sometime.
The Weekly Joyce
For one she claims that Lane Evans is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. This comes from his last opponent who claimed that Evans was a member of DSA when actually Evans is a member of the Progressive Caucuse in Congress which was posted on the DSA web site. But facts, schmacks. She makes the same claim about Danny Davis–I don’t know if that is true, but he does have ties to the Right Reverend Loon–errr… Moon and was there when Moon declared himself the Messiah.
Before she gets to that lie, she has an incoherent rant on the National Debt though she confuses deficit and debt in a rather bizarre way. But most importantly she doesn’t even begin to grasp how debt is financed by a large country. She seems to think collateral is needed when the reason people borrow from the US government is because it is a solid stable institution with a huge economy. You don’t put up collateral on national debt.
In a rather amusing bit she suggests the Terra is a tool to take away land and somehow this is connected to the above:
Are we now using every control mechanism we can to take the terra from the people? I don?t know. I?m just throwing out a few thoughts and it is up to you to see if the pieces fit.
So now the Leader has a bizarre conspiracy theorist writing for them who doesn’t get their facts even close to straight. Impressive way to build credibility. Again, as comedy, keep it up, but if the Leader wants to be anything more than ideological hacks they might try and find someone who isn’t a nutcase to write environmental columns for them.
Zorn on the Senate Polls Past
And it doesn’t bode well for Ryan. Copied here since there aren’t permalinks:
I checked the database from our last two U.S. Senate race to see what the papers were reporting.
Sun-Times, May 25, 2002 — Democrat Dick Durbin, 53 percent; Republican Jim Durkin, 33 percent.
Tribune, May 5, 2002 — Durbin 49%, Durkin 32%.
Actual result Durbin 68%, Durkin, 31%
Sun Times, April 3, 1998 — Reported the results of two polls, one showing Republican Peter Fitzgerald with 37 percent and incumbent Democrat Carol Moseley-Braun with 44 percent, the other showing a 46-46 dead heat
.Tribune, August 23, 1988 — Fitzgerald 46%, Moseley-Braun 39%
Actual result: Fitzgerald 51%, Moseley-Braun–47%
(Okay, so I hadn’t gone into the National Journal Archives yet for this stuff–good job Eric)
The numbers are closest to Durkin’s race right now, though I have to say to me Durkin was a better candidate than Jack! That said, Ryan will be higher profile and should beat the final results unless the divorce files are a problem. But beating Jim Durkin’s results isn’t saying much.
Libertarian’s Choose Badnarik
Going to Jeff again, the Libertarians chose Michael Badnarik, and Jeff has the scoop.
Libertarian Candidate
Jeff Trigg makes a pretty good plea for the Libertarian Candidate in comments.
Vote Libertarian Jerry Kohn for US Senate. 😉 Where are his results in the polls? Yeah, I know. 30% who consider themselves “very conservative” said they were leaning toward Obama. That seems like a strong case to include Kohn in the debates. I bet if someone did a poll more than 80% would agree all candidates on the ballot should be included in the debates. We’ll see what type of democracy Obama actually believes in. Kohn is just as qualified as Ryan. Ryan’s never held office, while Kohn is an elected Library Trustee in Cook County. Ryan is pushing his minimal teaching experience, while Kohn has taught in public schools for years and years longer than Ryan. If that many people dislike Ryan, the voters would probably appreciate hearing about other choices. That used to be the American way.
Kohn’s website is here
Though notice the connection between
John Kerry
Jerry Kohn
Sort of like those old Kennedy-Lincoln conspiracy thingees.