It was God, Guns and Gays. Every number I’m looking at shows what appears to be an increase in Republican base turnout and that is largely due to abortion and gay marriage. Karl Rove’s strategy to bring out the evangelicals who didn’t vote in 2000 worked. Democratic turnout seems to be up as well, just as not up as much. Ohio’s vote to ban gay marriage probably won this by pulling out evangelical voters.
The House numbers aren’t bad—in fact the difference is that of the Texas redistricting and besides Florida, the losses of Democratic seats were in places that 2 years ago I predicted losing or came open surprisingly and we shouldn’t have had a shot at. The generic ballot did move towards Republicans at the end, but ultimately, it looks like the wave didn’t exist, but instead was decided by local trends and demographics.
That Democrats lost in Georgia Oklahoma, Alaska, South Caroline and even North Carolina shouldn’t be too surprising. That we won in Colorado is a good sign as is the showing in Kentucky. Florida suffered from high evangelical turnout for Bush and Jeb Bush’s handling of the hurricanes which gave him 70% approval. In a close election, that was the difference. Two years ago this was sure to be a bad cycle and it looked like Dems had lucked into some quality challengers, but the geography beat the Democrats.
Akaka (D- HI) Safe Dem even with retirement
Allen, George – (R – VA) Safe Republican
Bingaman, Jeff – (D – NM) Safe Dem–Bingaman got in the mid 60s last time around
Burns, Conrad – (R – MT) Safe Republican
Byrd, Robert – (D – WV) probable retirement–toss up/lean Republican/safe if he stays.
Cantwell, Maria – (D – WA) Safe Dem
Carper, Thomas – (D – DE) Safe Dem
Chafee, Lincoln – (R – RI) Too much to think about
Clinton, Hillary – (D – NY) Safe Dem. Weld or Guiliani can’t run in New York with the current President
Conrad, Kent – (D – ND) Safe Dem as Dorgan is.
Corzine, Jon – (D – NJ) Safe Dem
Dayton, Mark – (D – MN) Tough Fight. Not a great campaigner, but deep pockets probably Dem
DeWine, Mike – (R – OH) Safe Republican
Ensign, John – (R – NV) Safe Rep unless Yucca Mtn. gains salience.
Feinstein, Dianne – (D – CA) Safe Dem
Frist, Bill – (R – TN) Retiring-likely Republican
Hatch, Orrin – (R – UT) Safe Republican
Hutchison, Kay – (R – TX) Safe Republican
Jeffords, James – (I – VT) Safe Dem or I
Kennedy, Edward – (D – MA) Safe Dem even with retirement
Kohl, Herb – (D – WI) Safe Dem
Kyl, Jon – (R – AZ) Safe Rep
Lieberman, Joseph – (D – CT) Safe Dem
Lott, Trent – (R – MS) Safe Rep
Lugar, Richard – (R – IN) Safe Rep
Nelson, Bill – (D – FL) lean Dem
Nelson, Ben – (D – NE) tossup. Could always change parties.
Santorum, Rick – (R – PA) If Dems ever properly run against him, could be a tight race.
Sarbanes, Paul – (D – MD) Safe Dem
Snowe, Olympia – (R – ME) Safe Rep usually. If Dems have few in play, they may go after her.
Stabenow, Debbie – (D – MI) Safe Dem
Talent, James – (R – MO) Quality Challenger could produce a tight race, but R Lean
Thomas, Craig – (R – WY) Safe Republican
Off the bat, one Dem loss with slightly more vulnerabilities, but with only a few races really in play, this could turn a few races hot. Florida, Nebraska, West Virginia may be the biggest races–all current Democrats. Minnesota, Missouri and Pennsylvania have potential to be hot with two being Republican holdings. Maine and Rhode Island have potential, but Chaffee and Snowe are popular moderates. Dems will have to paint them as tied to Bush in those states. Or get Lincoln to switch.
So, the next cycle is tough too. But this cycle isn’t as bad as many are moaning about today. For President, the Republicans have to find someone who excites the evangelical base as much as Bush, but doesn’t scare moderates. That is a tough sell and where the President is especially gifted as a politician. Much like Clinton infuriated Republicans, Bush has an uncanny ability to be speak to two crowds with the same words. The only way he won this was by that skill. There are few with those skills.
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