October 2004

Numbers that Make Me Salivate

General Election Match up
———–Support/——–High/ Low Opinion
Weller______45%_______ 40/16
Renner_____25 ________12/6
Undec._____30

Generic Ballot
Dem___36%
GOP___32

General Election Match Up-Informed on Outsourcing

Renner__40%
Weller___39

The outsourcing measure is when informed about views on outsourcing people then change their votes.

A Bannon Communications poll; conducted 9/26-27 for Tari Renner; surveyed 353 likely voters; margin of error +/- 5.3% (meaning a Democratic Poll)

So the basic results here are virtually the same as the poll done by Weller (update). Don’t know why I missed this–one huge difference is Weller is under 50% reelect which is the magic number.

The interesting thing, and why Weller is avoiding debates, is that when informed of positions, Renner jumps in support.

Does this mean this race is close? No–but it means there is a hell of a lot of upside potential to this race in a closely divided CD where the Gore – Bush split in 2000 was 48 – 50.

Is it too late? Possibly. I can’t say that and dismiss the Zinga potential in the 17th so I’ll try and stay consistent, but hopeful. Renner needs to get his name out there, the positions out there and fast–and you can help by donating or helping with their ground game. If this isn’t at least close, the Democrats will be missing a huge opportunity.

Sex Education for Kindergartners?

Of the many carnards that Alan Keyes has tried to use during this race, the one that disturbed me most was his rant that no sex education for Kindergartners is appropriate (video to come–this was in Collinsville). He then went on a rant about how this showed some moral depravity. Barack reminded me of it today in a story where he explains the issue of storks versus birth which is a decent example.

But there is a far more serious side to this–relevant sex education at that age also includes information about how to deal with good and bad touches. IOW, how to teach children to appropriately deal with people who want to touch them in personal places. AKA child molestation. This can be an important defense against child sexual abuse and is not in any way promoting sex-in fact it does the opposite–it can protect children from abuse.

I have little use for demagoguing on this issue. Having dealt with kids who have been abused a little, the notion of boundaries is one of the most difficult issues with which those kids deal. I am not naive enough to think that such education is enough to stop sexual abuse of children, but it can be an important component of reducing it.

If someone is reading this at the Obama campaign–this might be a good way to address the issue.

It’s not Just Lobbyists Who Have to Be of the Right Political Persuasion

But commentators too…the Stakeholder points out Norm Ornstein being shunned by many members of the House Republican Caucus.

This is a shame–Ornstein isn’t only a good commentator, he is an honest to goodness academic with an excellent publication record. He’s a political scientist and an honest observer and devotee of the institution known as Congress. That’s the House Republicans loss then. They could learn a lot from him.

Had to Sleep on This One

From the inbox I was alerted to Maya Keyes’ girlfriend complaining about the coverage and the blogs that broke the story in particular. While credit to the find goes to Modern Vertebrate and then Chillinois, I certainly don’t deny my choice in being a relatively early poster on the story and I’d still do that.

But what I find in comments at Chillinois adds to the story:

Of course, there are still many religious-based colleges where antigay policies are still very much in effect. One such school, Messiah College in Grantham, Pa., was founded by the evangelical Brethren in Christ. Bria Grace, 19, an out lesbian sophomore at Messiah, says the school makes no secret of its antigay stance. ?If you are found to be in a gay or lesbian relationship, you must seek counseling,? she says. ?You have to recognize that what you did was wrong.?

Now, does that absolve me of any decisions? What if Bria Grace hadn’t been out? As a note, I wouldn’t mention her name other than it is in a news article. Thinking back, I may well have blurred a picture if I had put it up myself, but that is in retrospect.

Given the situation, I think appearing in an article in the Advocate takes away any claim to privacy on that specific issue. That doesn’t answer the abstract issue of what about those who have no real role in the story other than being, for a better phrase, collateral damage.

It would be truly unfortunate. But I think that is the case in many stories that are pursued. Gary Hart’s wife was certainly an innocent bystander, but when Gary Hart challenged the press, it was a legitimate story. Jack Ryan’s son faces some embarrasment as he grows older. But ultimately, the responsibility for those misfortunes rest on those taking the actions. Jack Ryan covered up his life, lied to the public and the party. The big deal was the lying, with conduct that was strange—Jack tried to hide public documents. Bria Grace is a victim of her mother, but ultimately, that may or may not have occurred in the context of the information being highlighted in discussing the views of a man who seems to suggest that Grace’s mother is correct in her behavior and upbraids others for their tolerance of gay and lesbian children and wants to be the next US Senator from Illinois.

As we know now, Alan Keyes is a joke, but unfortunately, Alan Keyes is only a joke because he is so bizarre in his behavior. Patrick O’Malley wants to be the next Governor of Illinois and is just as reactionary as Keyes, but slightly more palatable because of his demeanor.

I won’t out people on this blog and I’ll try and avoid ‘incidentally’ outing people in circumstances like this. But the second category is impossible to avoid in some circumstances.

Now, let me chide the Illinois press for one moment. Alan Keyes has all of a sudden found his family off limits when he didn’t find Dick Cheney’s family off limits. But let’s not forget, Alan Keyes thought John McCain’s and George Bush’s daughters were not off limits in 2000

In this election cycle, candidates who oppose abortion are being asked how they would respond if their teen-age daughters got pregnant. McCain’s initial answer was that his 15-year-old would make the “final decision.” But upon more thought, he said it would be a “family decision.” But this response reveals, as Keyes observed, that even someone with a 20-year pro-life voting record may not really embrace the position he propounds.

A truly pro-life candidate would respond as follows: “If, G-d forbid, my daughter were to become pregnant, we would let her know that we were disappointed in her (unless, of course, the pregnancy were the result of rape). We would also tell her that we will protect, love and support her throughout her pregnancy, and would expect that when the child is born, we will, as a family, make an adoption plan for the baby.”

I admit there’s deep, deep irony in the above, but he felt the personal situations of the McCain and Bush families were relevant. Why isn’t the Keyes’ family relevant?

I feel bad that Maya Keyes is undergoing a lot of stress and that her friends may as well. But I’ll be damned if I’ll sit by and let that hypocritical bastard Alan Keyes exploit the politics of personal destruction and then whine about it when the same treatment is given to him.

He’s toxic to politics and he was brought in to be toxic to Barack Obama. But when that toxicity hits him, he wants to run away. Tough shit.

Standing Up To Dean?

Cheney from the debate:

“So they, in effect, decided they would cast an anti-war vote, and they voted against the troops. Now, if they couldn’t stand up to the pressures that Howard Dean represented, how can we expect them to standup to Al Qaeda?”

Uh-huh. But can this administration stand up to Grover Norquist

John McCain:

“Throughout our history, wartime has been a time of sacrifice. … What have we sacrificed? As mind-boggling as expanding Medicare has been, nothing tops my confusion for cutting taxes during wartime. I don’t remember ever in the history of warfare when we cut taxes

This is an attempt to sell this war on the cheap. Want a graphical description of the problem, go see Brad DeLong