August 2004

Crane Round-Up

ArchPundit August 1, 2004 0 Comment

The bad thing about having a credible challenger is that the other Party figures it out if you are too successful. The good news is that money doesn’t organize and if you don’t have an ground plan and mail strategy in place by now, you’ll be doing a lot of improvising without a good hand on how to use your resources best.

The Northwest Herald picks up on the increased fundraising by Crane and the cross party support Bean is getting.

Several have complained that Crane is out of touch and tries to stand on decades-old achievements.

Herman said the Bean campaign is seeing some Republican support. A few Republican committeemen have contributed to the campaign, Herman said, although their donations are less than the $200 reporting threshold.

“A fourth of our volunteers [say they are] Republicans,” Herman said.

Illinois Congressional Races

Crane’s Troubles in the UPI

ArchPundit August 1, 2004 0 Comment

I don’t have a permalink, but I had an article forwarded to me:

Concerns that Rep. Phil Crane, R-Ill., may have trouble in the upcoming election are being dismissed as “overblown” by some folks close to him.

The Democrats are saying that Crane, currently the longest-serving member of the House GOP Conference, has become “a lobbyist-dependent Washington insider.”

The “anxiety began to bubble over in June,” the Chicago Tribune reported, when GOP Rep. Ray LaHood said in an interview that Crane could be the election’s “November surprise.”

“The problem is he really just has not worked (his district) that well. He hasn’t paid attention to it,” said LaHood, who has since backed from his observation. Crane, meanwhile, is touting his frequent visits to the district over the last three months and his seniority as chairman of the House’s Trade Subcommittee.

A recent poll conducted for his opponent, Democrat businesswoman Melissa Bean, showed that 36 percent of voters in the district “are inclined” to re-elect Crane, but one prominent business lobbyists who is following the race closely says people should not be concerned. “The district is solidly GOP. For Bean to win it would require a convergence of anomalies that would be biblical in scope.”

“Crane is prepared for a fight,” he said, while “the rest of the Illinois GOP delegation are pouring a lot of resources into the race.”

(That’s Politics! looks at the inner workings of the American political process and is written by UPI’s Peter Roff, a 20-year veteran of the Washington scene.)

=======

I, of course, hope that is the attitude, but I’d say looking at the demographics, the likely low turnout in the District, and the money Bean is raising, this is going to be a very hot race. One thing to consider is that a challenger who can raise enough money can challenge and Bean is doing that and that poll will pull in the DCCC. Especially with no TV (just useless in such a market) and no record to run against with Bean, Crane is going to have a really hard time framing the debate in terms beneficial to him. He has to have a strong turnout in his District, and there is little evidence he can produce that anymore.

Of course, I could be wrong.

Illinois Senate

Berkowitz Only Gets Part of the Problem

ArchPundit August 1, 2004 0 Comment

This isn’t a slam at Jeff, but he misses the key to a Plummer Candidacy. If Plummer puts in $5,000,000 (or just barely more) than Barack can raise $12,000 a person and coordinated party money–money he won’t need.

Any self-funder makes it easier for Barack in many ways.

Taking a small bit from the only decent resource I know of this–the Hotline:

Personal Funds Spending > $1,018,640 (2X threshold) then spending limit jumps to $6,000

Personal Funds Spending > $2,037,280 (4X threshold) then spending limit jumps to $12,000

Personal Funds Spending > $5,093,200 (10x threshold) then spending limit jumps to $12,000 and party committees can spend unlimited coordinated amounts on the campaign

Even Cox boots it up to $6,000/donor.

Just to add to the Republican nightmare the initial threshold is $509,320–though I don’t have the exact figure that donors can increase too at that point.

UPDATE: From a Democratic Source that demonstrates I only sort of get it, the intial threshhold doesn’t increase how much you can raise. It’s when you double the threshhold that increased limits kick in.

IOW, Cox says he’ll put in $1,000,000. That wouldn’t increase the limit. But $18,000 and some change more, Obama collects double.

Presidential Race

The Effectiveness of the Kerry Speech

ArchPundit August 1, 2004 0 Comment

The Kerry speech was effective in two ways–it outlined a clear plan of attack on Bush, but also, it sold him to activists in the Democratic Party. One of his basic problems has been he isn’t terribly popular with a lot of voters because he is seen as sort of boring and overproduced. Complaints I’ve been known to make. That speech sold most of us and instead of being Anybody but Bush, I can now say I’m excited about a John Kerry Presidency. That’s a big accomplishment.

Will it work? Well that is what campaigns decide.

Overall the convention did two things well. It framed the debate on terms the Democrats think are favorable to them and then it provided a positive outlook for the future over just simple Bush rage.

G-Rod

The Winner of the 2004 Budget Fiasco?

ArchPundit August 1, 2004 1 Comment

Probably Cross-the only guy not getting negative publicity and for good reason.

But more than a party fight, this was a separation of powers fight and Rich Miller details the key element of that fight.

The administrative rule changes are a staggering increase in the power of the Lege and probably a very bad institutional organization, though certainly understandable given the current Governor. Miller describes it thusly:

The new powers given to the Joint Committee on Administrative Rules provide the Legislature with a huge weapon to check the governor’s previously awesome authority to run his administration. In the past, it was immensely difficult to stop a new administrative rule.

Rulemaking authority has been almost equal to, and in some cases has exceeded, legislative powers of passing bills. The importance of that rulemaking power can’t be overstated. Essentially, the governor could rewrite state laws to his own liking through the way he chose to implement them. Now, all it will take is a vote of eight out of the twelve JCAR members and a proposed rule is just about dead. That’s a big thing.

We elect Governor’s to implement policy. That’s their job as the Executive. Within that role is an amount discretion as to how to carry out laws with a check on it through administrative procedure rules and the ability of the courts to oversee the process. One of the reasons we do that is the assumption is that expertise is needed to decide how to specifically implement bills in highly technical areas. Expertise the legislature doesn’t generally have easily available nor does it have time to oversee such processes.

In reasonable times, the Lege looks for warning signs—or in the literature what is called as Fire alarms. When something wrong is brought to their attention from the bureaucracy, it is because there is a big shining light flashing over a problem. This is generally good because it catches the big problems and allocates legislative energy towards the most important areas of oversight.

The other way they could do this is called police patrols which means they monitor budgets and performance with regular audits. That job is generally given to the State Auditor except at budget time. It simply is too time consuming and ultimately, a Governor is elected to make single, coherent decisions within the legal framework.

If the trust breaks down between the branches as it has now down (the 50 Memorandums is staggering), the Lege starts to act more like a police patrol and in this case, they just institutionalized that method bureaucratic oversight.

While it takes up too much legislative time, the larger problem is that it trades a single coherent top-down bureaucracy into a bureaucracy with several masters—a recipe for incoherence and special favors. Instead of the Governor and the Lege settling their differences in enabling legislation, the rule making issue moves that bargaining process to a daily fight in the Lege leading to slower government. And we already see how this Governor does in negotiations with the Lege.

So the Governor didn’t just lose for himself, he lost for the institution as well.

Illinois Senate

Illinois Senate Republican Nomination Cattle Call 7-31

ArchPundit August 1, 2004 2 Comments

Not the timeliness, but trying to ferret out names is damn near impossible

1). OneMan. He’s tan he rested, and he’s ready. Actually, I’ve seen a picture and he’s lying about being tan, but it is a good line. I’ll be starting the OneMan Truth Squad within the week.

2) The Obama Truth Squad. It’s not like the GOP is going to win, so might as well go negative cheap. 😉

3). Elizabeth Gorman. Reading the tea leaves at the Trib, it sounds like most of the movement is towards her. I wouldn’t take it for granted though, she’s insisting on money:

“It’s flattering, but at the same time, too, there are other candidates out there being considered,” she said Friday. If she ran, she said she would need “the support of the party, various financial commitments and people commitments.”

Two red flags. She appears to be Judy Barr Topinka’s candidate which will set off the right wing. Second, her big sponsor has long been Eddie Vrdolyak. Even more interesting is her husband has business ties to him and Fast Eddie is often rumored to run a loose ethical ship. More than anything, isn’t it time to exile that clown from both parties?

4) Robert Plummer. Random construction guy promises to put $5 million into his own campaign. And people are using the office computers to promote his candidacy…

A political neophyte who is unknown other than having lots of cash. That is certainly a winning strategy for everyone this cycle.

5) Orion Samuelson. He’ll have a really good radio commercial I bet. He seems to have the good sense to insist on guaranted funding too. Now, who isn’t already thinking of Les Nessman and turkeys falling from a helicopter?

6) Throw in the towel.

7) Beg Paul Vallas to come back and switch parties

8) John Cox. Well no one actually likes the guy, but he does have some cash to put into the race.

9) Corinne Wood. The choice if you just want to sit back and watch the fireworks as the Pat O’Malley faction works to elect Obama.

10) Borling. Fairly popular with many Central Committee Board members, but kind of hard to choose a guy, heroic as he is, who only got 3% of the primary vote.

11) Norm! Held back from security at debates because no one can vouch for who he is.

12) The OberFurher. The President hates him. He is insisting on getting party support. Latino numbers are bad already. An open invitation to Barack to travel to every pocket of Latino voters in the Country and provide a contrast between the parties for them. IOW, not going to happen.

13) Jonathan Wright. Who?

14) Kathuria. Resume Line: An answer to a trivial pursuit answer asking who President Barack Obama beat in his first US Senate election.

Crane Round-Up

Crane’s Troubles in the UPI

Berkowitz Only Gets Part of the Problem

The Effectiveness of the Kerry Speech

The Winner of the 2004 Budget Fiasco?

Illinois Senate Republican Nomination Cattle Call 7-31

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