March 2004

What Happened to the 19th?

ArchPundit March 16, 2004 4 Comments

Springfield Dem argued that Hynes organizational strength was vastly overrated last week.

He was right, he says this tonight:

Last week, you ran my post where I stated that people were vastly over-stating the Hynes organizational strength. Thanks.

Now we have proof — just look at the 19th Ward numbers — Tom Hynes’ ward — in the Senate race.

Dad’s home ward organization delivered the home ward for only a 2,000 vote plurality — Hynes barely broke 50% in his own “machine ward.

Madigan and Daley produced huge margins for Hynes.

Mark my words — this will be the inside talk of the entire Chicago Democrat community over the coming days. The 19th ward performance for Hynes is a political catastrophe for both father and son.

Obama took 41 % of the vote in the 19th compared to 51% for Hynes. Hynes only got a plurality in 5 of the 50 wards. Four of those with a majority.

Update: Springfield Dem did a bit more digging:

For what its worth — Obama took 29 of 66 precincts in the 19th Ward.

Vote Plurality by Ward for Hynes:

13 (Madigan) +5,269
11 (Daley) +4,581
23 (Lipinski) +3,457
19 (Hynes) +1,846

Hard to put a good spin on that.

Yeah. Now I don’t think this kills Hynes’ career, but it does mean he needs to loosen up and really try and connect with voters. He’s been a great comptroller and I expect great things in the future, but his campaign was uninspired. I know his brother was manager, and perhaps that is part of the problem. Family members tend not to be good at delivering things a candidate needs to hear.

Stunning Results

ArchPundit March 16, 2004 3 Comments

Hull obviously collapsed, but given his campaign was built upon name recognition to be followed up with issues, once he was taken off message the result shouldn’t be that surprising. He spent the last three weeks talking about personal issues.

Hynes is coming in at the bare base of what might be expected for him. While it removes any sense that he is invincible, I wouldn’t bet against him in the 2010 Governor’s race.

Pappas just ran into a buzzsaw. One thing that became clear over the last few days is that Obama’s campaign had taken on a life of its own. Not as much of a life as it took on, but a life of its own. Pappas just fell into the background.

On the Republican side, Jack! kept his share of the vote, but certainly wasn’ t overwhelming. Rauschenberger did have a large surge, but just a little too late. Expect him in the next Governor’s race. The wildcard is whether he’ll run against O’Malley who has been running since Jim Ryan beat him last time. By the time the general election is over, I have a feeling the Republicans will be wishing they had voted for the less exciting Rauschenberger.

In a Democratic leaning state any Republican faces an uphill battle. That said, I think a variety of issues will keep Ryan from getting traction. Frankly, I think he is just too conservative for Illinois. Charisma helps, but his speaking skills aren’t as good as advertised. But I’ve been wrong before.

Rich Miller pointed out that Daley has every reason to work hard for Obama, or he might just run for something more locally and with the numbers tonight, he win in just about anything except maybe a showdown with the Mayor himself.

But Kass says it in a much more entertaining way

“O’Bama!” Musical. (PG). Cuba Gooding Jr. Gene Hackman. Musical about Irish-American Democratic political bosses led by Hackman, who rush to adopt an African-American Senate candidate (Gooding). No, I mean, they really adopt him. Includes the hit song: “Youse Can’t Run Fer Mare If Yer Stuck in Washington, D.C.”

Barack Is Our Nominee

ArchPundit March 16, 2004 3 Comments

Hot Damn!

Click on the ad at the right and let’s donate some cash to him to get ready for the fight against…well we’re waiting, but it looks like Ryan.

Heading Home–see you next after the polls close

ArchPundit March 16, 2004 18 Comments

play nice in comments, but be sure to drop any information you are picking up!

Interesting….

ArchPundit March 16, 2004 No Comments

McCulloch is doing the polling for Mel Reynolds. This isn’t unusual as McCulloch does both campaign direct work and work as a pollster so doing polling for another candidate would be somewhat normal.

Capitol Fax has some Sense of Lege Races

ArchPundit March 16, 2004 1 Comment

Check it out

He also discusses why he doesn’t make predictions. He makes very good points. One point is that they are silly. For me that is the reason to make them, but I’m also not a journalist who makes his living on his credibility so I think his reasoning makes sense. In fact, I usually overstate my predictions simply because it is fun if a possibility occurs and I call it. See my numbers for Rauschenberger.

And I disagree about exit polling….but we already know that.

Just Another Open Thread

ArchPundit March 16, 2004 6 Comments

Pretty busy today, so keep dropping any info you see….