March 2004

Log Cabin Republicans Fight The Ban Gay Marriage Amendment

The Democratic Party has some work to do on this, but come’on, isn’t it time to just jettison the Republicans at the national level?

Kudos to Baar Topinka for trying to knock it down in the Illinois Republican Party, but I am guessing it could be her downfall in the 2006 Gubernatorial Primary.

Madigan is blocking a statewide amendment.

At the Illinois state level traditional family groups have worked with a conservative downstate Democrat to introduce an amendment to the state constitution confirming marriage as between one woman and one man. But the legislaton has not emerged from the House Rules Committee.

According to House Speaker Michael Madigan’s (D-Chicago) spokesman Steve Brown, the issue is not a high priority to the public, and it won’t be in the General Assembly this session, either.

Now, class when it does emerge from Rules where is it going to go? A committee to nowhere is where. For the time being the key is to keep this garbage from coming up until the fight can be won.

ICFST Going Nuclear

Sweet.

Rich Miller reports:

POLLS (excerpt)* Meanwhile, there is a ton of chatter in the system right now about the Republican (US Senate) race. Brace yourselves, folks. If you thought the Dem primary was a sordid little affair, the Republicans appear to be almost ready to pull out the nukes.

Any ideas out there?

UPDATE: For the new Readers ICFST==Illinois Circular Firing Squad Team==Illinois Republican Party. This is due to the civil war currently being fought between social conservatives and the traditional power brokers. It’s good fun to watch.

Survey USA Senate Poll

Via Eric Zorn’s Notebook

The most recent poll is up from Survey USA.

Democrats
Obama 44%
Hull 20%
Hynes 18%
Pappas 7%
Chico 6%
Other/Undecided 5%

Data Collected
3/6/04 – 3/8/04

Geography
State of Illinois
Sample Population
776 Certain Voters
Margin of Error 3.6%
Client WBBM-TV Chicago

Republicans
Ryan 37%
Oberweis 23%
McKenna 14%
Rauschenberger 11%
Borling 4%
Other/Undecided 10%

Data Collected
3/6/04 – 3/8/04
Geography
State of Illinois
Sample Population
402 Certain Voters
Margin of Error 5.0%
Client
WBBM-TV Chicago

A couple things to notice–Survey USA is using Certain Voters which should be above Likely Voters. The formula and method to determine this is proprietary and so this is often why polls differ between outfits. The other thing is SurveyUSA uses computer automated calls and we are not yet certain what kind of bias that might introduce into the results. While their results are getting steadily better over time, we just don’t have the information to appropriately analyze how valid and reliable they are. That said, the results are in line with other polls.

What we might be able to deduce is that Hynes really needs a good ground operation because he is relatively low in the poll for certain voters and so his voters are perhaps less likely to vote. But amongst certain voters, Obama is in very good shape.

On the Republican side, Jack!’s support is clearly not as deep, but Rauschenberger does pop up. Not surprising given certain voters are more likely to be politically engaged and thus be familiar with him despite his absence from the airwaves.

Hi to All the New Readers

I just want to welcome the significant new readership I’m noticing from the huge uptick in traffic the last week.

For those unfamiliar with me, I live in Saint Louis and have an obsession with Illinois politics. I’m a partisan Democrat, though when I did live in Illinois I voted for Republican on several occasion. That said, I love Illinois politics and that is what this site is devoted to covering.

For those wondering why I bother to endorse candidate? Because I can and I think it is fun. While I’m serious about it, I also don’t take it too seriously that a lot of people come here for my views. For one thing, most of the political junkies who make their way here made up their minds long ago. But thanks for visiting and please come back.

And for any candidates or interest groups out there, look to your right and see the Obama ad. You too can have that ad space cheap. Just click on the advertise on ArchPundit. Right now, that money will all go back into paying for the site. Bandwidth and server space costs. I’m sounding like public radio now so I have to go.