Survey USA Senate Poll

Via Eric Zorn’s Notebook

The most recent poll is up from Survey USA.

Democrats
Obama 44%
Hull 20%
Hynes 18%
Pappas 7%
Chico 6%
Other/Undecided 5%

Data Collected
3/6/04 – 3/8/04

Geography
State of Illinois
Sample Population
776 Certain Voters
Margin of Error 3.6%
Client WBBM-TV Chicago

Republicans
Ryan 37%
Oberweis 23%
McKenna 14%
Rauschenberger 11%
Borling 4%
Other/Undecided 10%

Data Collected
3/6/04 – 3/8/04
Geography
State of Illinois
Sample Population
402 Certain Voters
Margin of Error 5.0%
Client
WBBM-TV Chicago

A couple things to notice–Survey USA is using Certain Voters which should be above Likely Voters. The formula and method to determine this is proprietary and so this is often why polls differ between outfits. The other thing is SurveyUSA uses computer automated calls and we are not yet certain what kind of bias that might introduce into the results. While their results are getting steadily better over time, we just don’t have the information to appropriately analyze how valid and reliable they are. That said, the results are in line with other polls.

What we might be able to deduce is that Hynes really needs a good ground operation because he is relatively low in the poll for certain voters and so his voters are perhaps less likely to vote. But amongst certain voters, Obama is in very good shape.

On the Republican side, Jack!’s support is clearly not as deep, but Rauschenberger does pop up. Not surprising given certain voters are more likely to be politically engaged and thus be familiar with him despite his absence from the airwaves.