Joshua Grossman had some questions. Some of which I’ll answer now and others I do more with later.
1) Now that Demos have Gov + both houses of legis. in Ill., what
legislation can we expect to see passed??
Not too much given the $5 Billion hole in the state budget. As noted below by Rich Miller revenue enhancement will occur. The next two years will be budget, budget, and less budget.
Union issues will be at the front, but only of the costless variety for a couple years. A minimum wage hike can be expected to be an issue, but it may not make it. Chicago school reform is off the table fortunately. The union had been bucking to repeal the reform from the 90’s, but Duncan came up with a compromise.
Ultimately, rural school district and other not so wealthy district funding will have to come up. I’ve been saying that since 1990 so sooner or later I’ll be right. From what I can tell Madigan doesn’t want to touch it so I’m not sure it will rise to the top.
2)Can Demos recruit serious candidate to run against Jerry Weller(who I
see as only even THEORETICALLY vulnerable incumbent U.S.House member of eitherparty from IL or MO for that matter.
Weller probably is safer than you think. He snakes into McLean County so his parents can vote for him (lame redistricting reason of the cycle). His district is largely rural and conservative. A bit of labor, but McLean and the rural areas outpoll labor pretty easily. Of potentially vulnerable, Kirk is first on the list and sometime in the distant future, Hyde’s seat might become competitive or Hasterts. Neither is in trouble anytime soon, but trends are moving especially in 6 (Hyde). Kirk is safe for now and until he retires (don’t get me wrong there). Biggert’s district might be competitive in a few years as well.
The person who didn’t draw a fight that surprised me was Tim Johnson. That district should be strong Republican, but that guy is such a dirtbag it is hard to imagine someone couldn’t have just stood up and pointed that out repeatedly and gotten 48% of the vote at least. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets primaried at some point–like after a DUI or something.
So no, I don’t see anyone vulnerable in Illinois.
3)Can a Kirk type win statewide Repub. primary in IL????—if not I
wonder if Repubs. r doomed statewide unless Demos recruit felons or Mosely-Braun.
Ask Andrew McKenna the summer of ’04. I tend to think not if you are new to the scene. I don’t doubt that Edgar or Big Jim Thompson could do it, but the ground operation of the wingnuts is consistently beating out moderates. There best shot would be to target lessor offices and move up from there.
4)And finally do Wellstonian type Demos in state leg. in either IL or MO
have a "Progressive Caucus" a la U.S. House???
Missouri. Don’t make me laugh. Actually there is a black caucus in both states. I’m not sure of other interest groups in Missouri. Missouri legislature is a rather strange bird and given many people who would normally have the same interests hate each other, not much organizing goes on. Maybe someone else is more familiar with it.
In Illinois there certainly are legislative interest groups and I forget how they are organized. Traditionally, goo-goos in the Democratic Party are often around and quickly run over. Dawn Clark Netsch is a great example.
5) Why have the Cook County SUBURBS of Chicago—taken en toto—trended much more to Dems(e.g. state leg. elections) than have the other burbs (e.g.DuPage, Kane etc.) which continue to elect almost exclusively Repubs.
Demographics and DuPage is starting to follow, though it will take a while. Read the Emerging Democratic Majority and it is the same old story. Inner ring burbs are going Democratic on social issues. Either they are labor towns or the liberal elites of lore. Places like Oak Park are beautiful old towns that are populated by liberals who love nice houses.
Kane is exurbia exemplified. Mega Churches (Willow Creek is just over the Cook border), malls, congestion and a mediocre standard of living.
DuPage avoided some reallignment for a long time by the existence of an iron tight machine. With the retirement of Pate Philip, defeat of J-Ry and the containment of Birkett in DuPage, that will start to change. They are losing their positions and as such, they won’t have much to spread around the county. It won’t be a solid Democratic area by any means, but it will become more competitive.
Will County is heading towards the Republicans as it becomes more exurban in nature instead of being a hotbed of labor. Will isn’t growing in the good way though. Think of those clowns who jumped out of the stands at Comiskey and you are seeing the unfortunate future of Will County (save your whining about my description Will residents–I was born there).
6)Why do rural/small town counties in Iowa, including ones that border Missouri, vote for Dems. Gov.Vilsack AND Sen.Harkin in 2002(almost all did for both except for far west of state by Nebraska) & for Gore+Nader over Bush + Buchanan in 2000 (many did , though definitely fewer than Vilsack/ Harkin won), while rural/small town counties in Missouri almost all(including those on border w/Iowa) voted for Talent in 2002,Bush in 2000.
Because Iowans have infinitely better judgment and more class than Miserians. I’ve lived both places and I choose Iowa for niceness, culture and style. Iowa has a strange prairie progressive streak similar to Minnesota and Wisconsin and it goes that far south. Missouri outside of KC and St. Louis is a southern state looking for some southern manners. Part of it might be the quality of the farming and the strength of the communities. Part of it probably is that Iowa hasn’t traditionally been divided on class issues like Missouri. Iowa is very homogenous and so there are fewer tensions historically based on race. Iowa’s churches probably promote social justice more.
These really aren’t answers because they don’t answer why Iowa is the way it is. I don’t know. As one state official put it in discussing why Iowa was successful in ag outreach projects for environmental quality, "They are just good people."
That doesn’t mean Republicans are bad, but there is something about Iowa that overcomes partisan divisions and allows people to switch between parties easier. I think. When does Hogberg come back anyway?
ArchPundit