Russ Stewart has a rather good analysis piece on Jack Franks potentially running for Governor. I tend to think Franks will see the effort as ultimately futile, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run for the Treasurer’s spot. Perhaps using the scenario to try and get some leverage to clear the field.
The one aspect that Stewart leaves out is the Governor’s fairly strong courting of Jackson Jr. Knowing that he has a problem with the Mayor and that he’s in the tank downstate, the Mayor has forged a fairly friendly relationship with Congressman Jackson over the last few months. At the State of the State he both introduced the Congressman and supported some sort of development of a south suburban airport. The Governor isn’t going to face a serious black candidate in the primary so the courting of Jackson provides for a stronger relationship in Chicago and a base of support that is probably impossible to cobble together a primary win against.
The further problem is that not knowing who is the Republican nominee, it’s impossible to tell if the Governor can, after a strong primary challenge, win a general election. Some of the field is so poor that they’d be toast. See O’Malley and Oberweis. It probably would toss the race to LaHood and perhaps Judy and Rauschenberger depends on where he would leave a primary race.
The Governor isn’t Bob Holden, Missouri incumbent Democratic Governor in 2004 who lost to the Democratic State Auditor. G-Rod has both cash to crush an opponent and where he is weakest–outstate–is not dominant in the primary or the general election. He’s strongest where the biggest chunk of votes resides and that gives him a far strong spot to start.
Franks is ambitious so taking on a sitting Governor means he has to make sure it isn’t a fatal blow to his future and for that to happen he’ll need some party elders to support him in the race even if they don’t do it publicly. I don’t see Daley or Madigan doing that in this race with a guy who cannot win. But might they help Franks run for Treasurer? Maybe.
Via the Cross Guys