Why would there be an increase in registrations?
Comparing raw numbers often leads to embarrassing statements by people who don’t have any traing in research. One of the sillier examples can be found at Real Clear Politics today. Their argument is that because there is a big upswing in Democratic registrations there is a higher likelihood fraud is being committed because in similar years, rates didn’t increase that much.
One problem: this year is different. Democrats are actively trying to register people on the Reservations. One would expect that when one party increases registration efforts more than the other, the party putting out more effort will be more successful. The number increase is as expected given there is a new ‘treatment’.
Additionally, voter registration is only open for 3 MORE DAYS! The Real Clear site indicates that the number go through November, but the registration cut-off is Monday. We are near the end of registration!
Real Clear continues with
Are these registration numbers proof of vote fraud? Of course not. But with recent evidence from the ongoing investigation suggesting that in certain counties as many as 1 in 10 registrations are invalid, just based on the data I’ve collected there could be upwards of a thousand fraudulent registrations in South Dakota by election day. That, my friends, would be a serious case of vote fraud. – TB 6:09 pm
Thousands? 1 in 10 would be less than one-thousand, but very seriouss. However, are we really seeing an increase that means all 8900 are affected by 1 in 10 ballots with problems? No–the 1 in 10 number comes from one county with about 1000 registrations. And not all of those are necessarily bad as Talking Points Memo points out. So given that we know of three people defrauding both the State of South Dakota and the SD Dems, we may have a series of bad registrations linked to a bad incentive system, but little evidence that it is widespread or a conspiracy. And the state Democratic Party is trying to help out.
This is a problem, but it is hardly the scandal that indicates massive vote fraud. It appears to be a scandal of individuals trying to get paid extra by the registration. And the increase in numbers is hardly shocking given the efforts.