Carnahan-Talent Poll Numbers
They are Survey USA numbers so don’t put too much stock in them, but Carnahan was ahead with 50 to 47 and a 3.8 MOE (IIRC)–the survey isn’t up yet.
Survey USA uses computer assisted polling and thus is more likely to have hangups. Other research indicates that this results in a liberal bias with conservatives less likely to respond.
That being said, looking at this poll and the recent Zogby poll, it seems to me the likely answer is we have a tie that is going to come down to turnout unless someone makes a huge blunder. Given how well these two are handled I wouldn’t expect that.
A quick note on the Zogby, the swings we are seeing are probably artifacts of his methodology. In his poll before the most recent he mentioned this was a volatile race, but in the most recent he didn’t mention this. There appears to be little reason from any polling going on to believe either has opened up much of a lead.
Election day will likely determine this race. (posted at both sites)