It’s hard to say, though Rod is probably ahead of Jack! right now, but he is quickly developing a dislike of both of them similar to the late Steve Neal’s deep dislike of Dick Durbin and Peter Fitzgerald.
In Thursday’s column he takes on Jack!’s new communications director.
# First, understand why your opponent has problems with significant elements of his base, and drive wedges where you can, to the maximum extent possible;
# “Second, recognize that it is not your campaign’s job to tell the objective truth, it’s your campaign’s job to tell the version of the truth that puts your opponent in the worst light possible (it’s his campaign’s job, after all, to do the same to you);
# “Third, don’t get suckered into the trap of only talking about issues the media says are important – instead, choose the issue matrix over which you want to wage war, and stick to it no matter what;
# “And fourth, if need be, if you can’t make a legitimate argument against your opponent on a key issue, use your opponent’s party’s position on the issue as the battleground, and wrap it around his neck. Make him pay for the sins of his party. Guilt by association still works, so don’t be shy in exploiting it.”
The problem with the Ryan campaign is every time they put out a fire, another story pops up about how it is running essentially a negative campaign and getting it from enunciating any message of its own.
There are two sides to that. Jack! partisans can point out this is lazy journalism looking to fit the evidence to the preconceived story. To a degree that has some merit, though I wouldn’t tar Schoenberg with that claim.
The flip side is if the shoe fits…
And Jack! is making the shoe fit a bit too easily.
Case in point from the column:
But then what does a May 26 news release from the Ryan campaign say about the kind of campaign Ryan wants to run? The release, titled “Knock, knock. Who’s there? Obama, the criminals’ good friend,” got personal about Ryan’s Democratic opponent, BARACK OBAMA.
Obama, now a state senator, voted against a bill in the legislature that would allow people to defend themselves against local ordinances banning gun possession if they have to use a gun to protect themselves on their own property.
“Once again, Barack Obama has shown his true colors,” the release quotes Pascoe. “He’s an outside-the-mainstream, weak-on-crime liberal who cares more for the rights of criminals than he does for those of law-abiding citizens.”
Jack! has never defined himself in any sense of what he stands for to the public. Yes, we can go to his website and see his issue positions, but despite a fairly good bio to run on, since the primary it has been all attack all the time instead of defining himself, locking up his base and then going to war over the center–which in Illinois is slightly to the left.
The real story appears to be at the top and it is tied back to everything that is loony in Conservative Republican Politics in Illinois–the Illinois Leader and its co-founder Dan Proft:
After the second column, Proft let me know in a 1 1/2-page e-mail that he wasn’t happy.
“Barack, er uh, I mean Bernie,” it began.
“I’m willing to try and do damage control for you with your friends in the Democratic Party but I don’t know … people are expressing a lot of disappointment with you for your personal assault on Bill Clinton. … But I stood up for you, I said, ‘Bernie is a good Democrat. … I mean, look at all the water he’s carrying for Sen. Obama.'”
Proft said he was embarrassed for me because I let Obama “get away” with his explanation of his vote against the fees, and he wondered why I didn’t press Obama on the budget problems of the Democrats now running the state.
“I know you’re loathe (sic) to report on any infighting among the Democrat hegemons much less make Obama have to answer any difficult questions about who’s right. …”
Well, it’s always nice to know they’re reading your stuff. But Proft may have missed some of the not-so-glowing columns I’ve written about the style and “substance” of Gov. ROD BLAGOJEVICH, who happens to be a Democrat.
Antagonizing the press is generally a really bad strategy. Of course, Proft was probably the guy who decided an unsigned editorial in the attacking Judy Baar Topinka and Frank Watson would be a good idea.
You get a mighty small coalition as a Republican if Frank Watson is too conciliatory.
The ultimate problem though? Staffers keep get press over the candidate. That should never, ever happen. I know other campaigns do everything they can to avoid that.
My thesis on Schoenberg is that outsiders get more scrutiny. Jack Ryan is an outsider, and in many way the Gov. is one too.
At this point, I’m sure you’re questioning my sanity. I mean, isn’t the Gov. the son-in-law of a Chicago Alderman? Hadn’t he served in the GA?
Yes to all that. But he also served in Washington, DC where politics is played much differently than in Springfield. I can tell he’s learned things while there because I recognize the same behavioral patterns. His staff has been imported from the national scene and other states. Finally, he’s positioned himself as an outsider and has challenged a lot of people in ways reminiscent to (but not the same) as Dan Walker.
Ryan is an easy case to make. Ryan is a newcomer. He hasn’t paid his dues in Springfield and he hasn’t run for sheriff. He’s an unknown quantity. Finally, he’s running on issues that, while popular nationwide, “just aren’t the kind things we’re comfortable with around here.”
Schoenberg is a nice guy, the few times we’ve chatted socially I enjoyed his company. But, like a lot of editorial boards members I meet, he’s a bit older than most reporters and he is at the top of the food chain in a very small pond.
These older reporters and editors cannot help but view themselves as community leaders because, well…they are. They’ve seen people come and go and while they are part of the environment, they are also part of the establishment, too.
Ryan’s stating that he wants a clean campaign, and then tarring Obama as being too liberal (liberal is a bad word these days, ya know), is standard political fare. Nor, is it negative campaigning. The stalker incident isn’t that big of deal in the grand scheme of things, either. Yet, the minor things are magnified because they are still early impressions.
Blagojevich’s partisanship against the GA can be seen in somewhat similar light. However, he’s picking fights with the guys that have been running things since Schoenberg came to Springfield from NY state. Who’s going to have more credibility, here? The gov. or the guy you’ve covered for 10 yrs.
Here’s a hypothetical example: Madigan being duplicit isn’t “news” because he’s been like that for 30 years. If its not new then it isn’t news. For Blagojevich being duplicit is news because we aren’t used to him.
Arch & Greg,
Kudos to both of you for your insightful comments.
Greg,
I think you have captured an element of it. And I think two things stick out–the heavy use of outstate talent that don’t understand the state’s media which leads them to push in the wrong way.
Two, it took a lot to turn on GRyan and Lee Daniels. Even after Daniels is tagged with decent sources in the press, much of the press–besides Rich Miller, give him a pass. And 1998 clearly was a weird year with GRyan getting amazingly good coverage given what was known.
Madigan has another thing going–he doesn’t talk to the press so the number of dishonest statements are pretty minimal ;). But yeah,he could never get away with that if he hadn’t been around and Steve Brown didn’t have the press’ respect.
All that said, Ryan’s mistakes are out of inexperience. I don’t think he understands how to set the tone for his staff to pull the “I’m going to run a clean campaign” and then stick a shiv in Obama. There are many ways to do it and it isn’t that remarkable, but they seem awfully ham-handed in their attempts so far.
Blagojevich’s problems are far deeper and despite having time to learn, he seems to like it this way. I think if Rod were to make it past his first term, this constant campaigning would still make him insufferable. Springfield isn’t DC where everyone is used to full out war and being a small town, it just won’t wear well.