Roskam in lead, Bean way ahead
Once finely balanced between the city and the suburbs, the political scales of metropolitan Chicago have been tipping ever more Democratic, and fierce congressional races in two long-safe Republican bastions now are putting that trend to an important new test.
What no one pays attention to is how these two Districts have voted recently. In Illinois 8 the 2000 Presidential vote (converted for the new boundaries) was 56-42. In 2004 it was 56-44. Republican, but not overwhelmingly so like say IL-5 in which 2/3 of voters voted Democratic in both years for President.
IL-06 is even closer and many ignore the partisan changes going on there. In 2000 converted to the 2002 boundaries it was 53% Bush to 44% Gore. In 2004 it went 53% Bush to 47% Kerry. The Cook partisan index is R +3 which is a Republican advantage, but not overwhelming.
In terms of numbers, no one seems to have hardened support beyond about 40% of the voters and for McSweeney differing polls are giving him pretty divergent numbers–my guess, and just a guess since the Trib gives no detailed numbers, is that his name recognition is still relatively low.
And there are still a lot of undecideds in the 6th.