Democratic Primary Prediction: Lipinski, but you can change that
+3 D results in Illinois Delegation of 13-6 Democratic Advantage and significantly more progressive.
Call It A Comeback
Democratic Primary Prediction: Lipinski, but you can change that
+3 D results in Illinois Delegation of 13-6 Democratic Advantage and significantly more progressive.
[…] His summary is here in “The Tally” — go click all the links and have some fun with Archie’s crystal ball. He predicts our Congresscritter ratio will go from 10 D/9 R to 13 D/6 R. […]
Just want to repeat the analysis I already wrote on Capitol Fax Blog.
Republicans running in open U.S. House races are going to get not significant financial aid in the final weeks of the election.
The priorities will be swing states in the presidential races and making sure the GOP has at least 41 U.S. Senate seats. The Dems have a chance of getting 60 Senate seats if things break their way.
And the trend is that if an unexpected event it seems to be breaking against the GOP in the last couple years.
Picture the Dems winning six or seven of the following:
VA (Warner retirement)
CO (Allard retirement)
NH (Sununu)
MN (Coleman)
NE (Hagel retirement)
ME (Collins)
OR (Smith)
Dems would only have to win four of the following:
NM (Domenici, ethics investigation pending)
AK (Stevens, criminal investigation pending, retirement possible)
NC (Dole, Dems have yet to ID strong challenger)
KY (McConnell, approval ratings suck; state party in trouble)
TX (Cornyn, low approval, lacks talent)
OK (Inhofe, anti-global warming kook)
ID (Craig, retirement)
And there are other seats where the Dems may be able to apply pressure.
Illinois, very impressive! Current split is just over 50-50, but Archpundit’s got all the Republicans except Biggert, TJohnson, and Shimkus (okay, Roskam too) on the line. My question for today: What’s Illinois got going that Michigan and Ohio can’t seem to muster?
Those seats in the 4 out of 7 list are a steep call. I can see Domenici and maybe Stevens going (if he doesn’t go through a primary first), but the rest…
OK has a long history of bright, hardworking Dems going against corrupt, doddering Rs and getting slaughtered.
TX, NC and ID, not holding my breath.
KY, if Beshear wins in a ridiculous 15 point blowout, then we’ll talk.
Three if there’s another huge year for Dems.
And another one has to be added if Landrieu gets in serious trouble in LA.