WLS-TV Poll
ArchPundit
Democrats
Obama 28
Hull 21
Hynes 17
Pappas 11
Undecided 14
Republicans
Jack! 45
Angry-Anti-Immigrant Ice Cream Guy 13
McKenna 10
Rauschenberger 7
Undecided 21
The differences we see in these polls is probably due to their sampling methodology and more importantly how they calculate likely voters. I’d say the Republican race is clear.
The Democratic race is going to hinge on turnout, though I think some of the comments for other posts bring up important points, one thing is missing. African-American candidates can generally rely upon good turnout from African-Americans. So Obama has two groups with which he is concerned for turnout. In the African-American community he needs the Jacksons to ramp up the downstate turnout and can use any help there. And he needs to convert votes on the South Side where there is tension between him, Bobby Rush and some of the South Side African-American ministers. Such disaffection might not lead to high support for other candidates, but it could lead to lower turnout. The big issue for Obama in relation to turnout are those supporting him in other areas–liberals and women. He has to target them without much organizational support because those areas are dominated by regular machine organizations or unions. His support from teaching unions is a big help as is the SEIU endorsement, but ultimately he has to hope for decent turnout in areas where he is organizationally weak.
Hynes has the opposite problem. He needs voters who aren’t tied to organizations to turn out for him.
Hull has his own organization, though figuring out who are the likely supporters gets very confused given the fluid nature of his problems.
Pappas needs women, women, women to turn out in the city and burbs.
On the Republican side, only a miracle by Raushenberger’s legislative allies can pull out a surprise. Oberweiss and McKenna are dead in the water. Rauschenberger is farther behind, but has organizational support. Even that is unlikely to do much in this race.
UPDATE: The Pappas campaign just clued me into this poll being taken between 2/24 – 3/4 so it is really hard to tell how representative the sample is–a response on March 4th wouldn’t be the same as a response on February 24 given the fluid nature of the race.
To help everyone sort out these numbers, I’ll do a bit on polling in the next day or two that explains the different types of polls.