Really–what is up with the Washington Campaign
ArchPundit
Anyone know anything? Is she dropping out? If so, will she endorse and if so who?
UPDATE: The site is back up. Largely irrelevant, but back.
Interesting Analysis on Hynes
Springfield Dem is known for coming out of left field, dropping amazing analysis and then disappearing again. Let’s hope he doesn’t disappear again after this gem in comments
I still have Hynes 3rd, with Pappas threatening to overtake him. His campaign is listless, message-less, and he doesn’t even benefit from the organization he’s had in the past. Hynes’s organizational strength — in my opinion — is being greatly over-estimated this time.
While Hynes got the AFL-CIO endorsement — it was an inside baseball play using parlimentary rules and the muscle of Ed Smith and Laborers International to mask the fact that Obama already had the support of — SEIU, IFT, and AFSCME — not coincidentally the three of the biggest money and manpower producing unions in the state.
Hynes’ organization is limited to South side irish wards, and the Southwest suburbs organization built by Madigan/Tom Hynes in the 90’s to control House races. Downstate — he’s basically got Metro East locked down. Beyond that, Hynes is relying on name ID and media. Neither are helping him much.
The big problem for Hynes — his ads suck. The Hull and Obama ads are an order of magnitude better than Hynes.
My disclaimer–I like Dan Hynes. I think his work as a financial watchdog is great. That said, the campaign is maybe competent, but certainly not inspiring. If the organization can’t pull out a ton of votes, he’s toast. I have made a few passing references to SEIU in the last few days, but those three union endorsements are big deals and they are unions that go to work for you. The trades are helpful, but not what they used to be.
He does have Metro-East locked up–minus the black vote which will be delivered to Obama by the Jackson outreach machine. Chico has the Mayor of East St. Louis, but he can’t deliver votes in any number. The Central Committee delivers the votes and Carl only won by beating them at retail politics. They’ll go with the Jacksons and whatever walk-around money the can split between themselves. The rest of the black vote in Metro East isn’t much prettier other than some independent minded folks.
Going out from there, the electeds backing Hynes will deliver some votes, but the Hull organization should do well outside of Metro East simply by knowing who to get out. The divorce scandal is below the radar for the most part other than in Springfield. Hull’s ability to spend for a GOTV operation even if it is just calls should outpeform Hynes in areas not controlled by the Jerry Costello.
Overall, this just reinforces Obama’s position at the top and Hull pulling back into second. Hynes isn’t dead, but he has to thread the needle at this point.
Tribune/WGN Poll
Democrats
Obama 33
Hynes 19
Hull 16
Pappas 8
Chico 6
Republicans
Jack! 32
Edelweis 11
McKenna 10
Undecided 35
The Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll is based on telephone interviews with 602 Democratic and 580 Republican voters likely to participate in the Illinois primary on March 16; the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. The poll was conducted March 3-6.
Hull bottomed out during this time, so expect some sort of gains for him. Hynes can’t seem to move from right around 20 and Pappas can only do better with commercials breaking. Chico is just the odd man out.
Jack! just can’t seem to break it open to finish everyone off with the high undecideds, but probably is high enough to win. Maybe I’m just engaging in wishful thinking for our democracy, but I have to think that while Rauschenberger won’t win, he’ll pick up a big chunk of late deciders and be the surprise on election day. Oberweis and McKenna have topped out.
Submissions Accepted: Senate Race
Two types of submissions are now being accepted. For nearly immediate publication any grassroots endorsements of the candidates for Senate will be published assuming it meets reasonable taste and legal standards. So send ’em in. I decided to open it up because, well, why not? The space difference is marginal so let’s hear what you think.
Starting Thursday or Friday I will be publishing mock endorsements. And please, not all of them should be for Oberweis. Special no-prizes given to those who can make an Edelweis parody. Taste isn’t much of an issue here, but no bigotry. So get cracking. I’ll post either through early Monday, and then ArchPundit will go to full time election coverage and keep it pretty sparse on analysis.
All requests for anonymity are honored. archpundit@yahoo.com
Obviously
The endorsement has been delayed….
Up tomorrow. I really don’t fell guilty-yesterday was lot of blogging.
Democratic Senate Cattle Call 3-8
1. Obama. Has the poll numbers and the good press. Getting the free press and getting good free press. Probably the largest group of motivated true believers to push the campaign forward. With Hynes probably the biggest benefit of having a low turnout election. While Hynes balances it with organization, Obama gets a core group of motivated volunteers.
2. Hynes. Decent polls and strong organization. Good media coverage. Still needs a better haircut. Key thing is that he can’t seem to get a hook in his media. Lots of organization on the ground though and should slightly outperform on election day.
3. Hull. Really the wildcard at this point. Several million in ads still coming out n the next few days. Seems to have stopped the bleeding, but free media has turned on him. Probably needs to move beyond the the divorce and stay on message like a laser. Downstate isn’t nearly as harsh on the divorce as Chicago and that is a key area of support.
4. Pappas. Still in there, and has a big media buy. My sense is the ad is one ad cycle too late, but still has good name recognition and no one really dislikes her. Needs to pick up undecided women.
5. Chico. Steve Rauschenberger of the Dems, but Dems have good candidates besides him.
6. Skinner. Might be marginal enough to throw the race, but frankly the race is so strung out at this point, who knows who is helped.
7. Washington. Web site down–no one knows anything. Any tips out there? Seems like about the time to get out and throw someone some support.
Republican Senate Cattle Call 3-8
This one is a snore. I need a new nickname for Ryan. Any suggestions?
1. Ryan! At least he won’t be whining like Jim Ryan about the name. Too bad Borling won’t be around to slap him around about NATO for the rest of the campaign. Can anyone find anything besides “I just think they can take care of themselves”? That might actually work with voters, but it shows a lack of depth–again.
2. Rauschenberger. Even stinking in the polls, he still has a better to shot to improve his standing than anyone else left. I have rarely seen, if ever, such a disconnect between the polls and the newspaper endorsements. I’m of the opinion this won’t be a hard race for any of the Democratic frontrunners, but Rauschenberger would keep them honest, and be damn funny.
3. Oberweis. Need a parody song set to Edelweiss. At least someone got ice cream for life out of this.
4. McKenna. He’s so boring, I got nothing.
5. Borling. He didn’t make an ass of himself.
6. Wright. May actually come out of this with good connections for his next run.
7. Kathuria. I think it’ll be hard to stretch this one on the resume.
Prison Blackmail
Rich Miller’s column this weekend hit on a bit of melodrama playing out between Blagojevich and Frank Watson.
The merits of the case to close the prison are beyond me. I have little opinion in that case, but the politics are pretty clear and they aren’t very pretty for Blagojevich. The prison is a major employer in Watson’s district–a district that is having a hard time making it.
Going after Watson might make political sense, but it doesn’t make sense in terms of being fair to a hard hit area. Watson can’t stop the Governor in most cases–let him and the Republicans sit out the budget again and again and again and instead pick off a couple choice defectors. But leave the prison guards out of it.
ArchPundit Endorsement: For Cook County Prosecutor
Duh, Richard Devine. The Tribune’s endorsement covers the essentials.
Devine has an excellent record and most importantly played a key role in the compromise over death penalty reform working with Obama to obtain a pilot program for police taping of interrogations. While slow in a few cases of questionable convictions he has not grandstanded like his moronic neighbor in DuPage and he has accepted that mistakes occur. He has had to sit out the Burge investigation, but he is honest and decent. And I hear he has a new grandchild!
100,000 Hits
I knew I’d hit it today given the uptick in traffic lately–thanks to everyone.