Interesting Analysis on Hynes

Springfield Dem is known for coming out of left field, dropping amazing analysis and then disappearing again. Let’s hope he doesn’t disappear again after this gem in comments

I still have Hynes 3rd, with Pappas threatening to overtake him. His campaign is listless, message-less, and he doesn’t even benefit from the organization he’s had in the past. Hynes’s organizational strength — in my opinion — is being greatly over-estimated this time.

While Hynes got the AFL-CIO endorsement — it was an inside baseball play using parlimentary rules and the muscle of Ed Smith and Laborers International to mask the fact that Obama already had the support of — SEIU, IFT, and AFSCME — not coincidentally the three of the biggest money and manpower producing unions in the state.

Hynes’ organization is limited to South side irish wards, and the Southwest suburbs organization built by Madigan/Tom Hynes in the 90’s to control House races. Downstate — he’s basically got Metro East locked down. Beyond that, Hynes is relying on name ID and media. Neither are helping him much.

The big problem for Hynes — his ads suck. The Hull and Obama ads are an order of magnitude better than Hynes.

My disclaimer–I like Dan Hynes. I think his work as a financial watchdog is great. That said, the campaign is maybe competent, but certainly not inspiring. If the organization can’t pull out a ton of votes, he’s toast. I have made a few passing references to SEIU in the last few days, but those three union endorsements are big deals and they are unions that go to work for you. The trades are helpful, but not what they used to be.

He does have Metro-East locked up–minus the black vote which will be delivered to Obama by the Jackson outreach machine. Chico has the Mayor of East St. Louis, but he can’t deliver votes in any number. The Central Committee delivers the votes and Carl only won by beating them at retail politics. They’ll go with the Jacksons and whatever walk-around money the can split between themselves. The rest of the black vote in Metro East isn’t much prettier other than some independent minded folks.

Going out from there, the electeds backing Hynes will deliver some votes, but the Hull organization should do well outside of Metro East simply by knowing who to get out. The divorce scandal is below the radar for the most part other than in Springfield. Hull’s ability to spend for a GOTV operation even if it is just calls should outpeform Hynes in areas not controlled by the Jerry Costello.

Overall, this just reinforces Obama’s position at the top and Hull pulling back into second. Hynes isn’t dead, but he has to thread the needle at this point.

One thought on “Interesting Analysis on Hynes”
  1. Arch–

    Thanks for promoting me to page 1!

    I wish I had the time to be more active on the boards — as it is, I pick my spots. But I’m always reading.

    Keep it up, love your site.

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