Your Womb, Our Rules
ArchPundit
Via Wonkette
Why Gay Marriage Will Win
Because people’s children are gay
Making me feel warm and fuzzy for Dick Mell was something I thought impossible. Don’t worry, it’ll pass.
Survey USA Senate Poll
Via Eric Zorn’s Notebook
The most recent poll is up from Survey USA.
Democrats
Obama 44%
Hull 20%
Hynes 18%
Pappas 7%
Chico 6%
Other/Undecided 5%
Data Collected
3/6/04 – 3/8/04
Geography
State of Illinois
Sample Population
776 Certain Voters
Margin of Error 3.6%
Client WBBM-TV Chicago
Republicans
Ryan 37%
Oberweis 23%
McKenna 14%
Rauschenberger 11%
Borling 4%
Other/Undecided 10%
Data Collected
3/6/04 – 3/8/04
Geography
State of Illinois
Sample Population
402 Certain Voters
Margin of Error 5.0%
Client
WBBM-TV Chicago
A couple things to notice–Survey USA is using Certain Voters which should be above Likely Voters. The formula and method to determine this is proprietary and so this is often why polls differ between outfits. The other thing is SurveyUSA uses computer automated calls and we are not yet certain what kind of bias that might introduce into the results. While their results are getting steadily better over time, we just don’t have the information to appropriately analyze how valid and reliable they are. That said, the results are in line with other polls.
What we might be able to deduce is that Hynes really needs a good ground operation because he is relatively low in the poll for certain voters and so his voters are perhaps less likely to vote. But amongst certain voters, Obama is in very good shape.
On the Republican side, Jack!’s support is clearly not as deep, but Rauschenberger does pop up. Not surprising given certain voters are more likely to be politically engaged and thus be familiar with him despite his absence from the airwaves.
Hi to All the New Readers
I just want to welcome the significant new readership I’m noticing from the huge uptick in traffic the last week.
For those unfamiliar with me, I live in Saint Louis and have an obsession with Illinois politics. I’m a partisan Democrat, though when I did live in Illinois I voted for Republican on several occasion. That said, I love Illinois politics and that is what this site is devoted to covering.
For those wondering why I bother to endorse candidate? Because I can and I think it is fun. While I’m serious about it, I also don’t take it too seriously that a lot of people come here for my views. For one thing, most of the political junkies who make their way here made up their minds long ago. But thanks for visiting and please come back.
And for any candidates or interest groups out there, look to your right and see the Obama ad. You too can have that ad space cheap. Just click on the advertise on ArchPundit. Right now, that money will all go back into paying for the site. Bandwidth and server space costs. I’m sounding like public radio now so I have to go.
The Not Present Votes
While I tend not to get charged up about campaign barbs, let’s make one thing clear, if you didn’t vote at all, you don’t get to criticize others votes.
Blair Hull’s biggest scandal should be that he hasn’t vote regularly. While I’m uncomfortable with the language surrounding the divorce issues, ultimately we have no evidence of a pattern of behavior. I doubt any of us would want to be judged by our worst days.
However, voting matters a lot. I can forgive not voting in some cases, but even in voting for John Edwards in the primary, I remembered he only eratically voted before 1998. Hull has a similar record as does Cheney. Cheney really blows my mind, but frankly him not voting is a good thing.
Voting matters and it matters a lot. As I’ve mentioned before, voting was like a religion in my family and the only elections I have missed are when I’ve moved within the 30 days of an election and two special elections involving one office where I hated everyone. I’ve voted more at the age of 32 than either John Edwards in his forties or Blair Hull in his sixties. Hell, I probably voted more than both of them by the time I was 22.
A single vote isn’t that important. Despite the little booklets that trot out statistics about where one vote might have mattered, even in Florida one vote didn’t matter one way or another. Except on the Supreme Court.
That leaves open why I see voting as so essential. Voting is the simplest manner in which we participate in our freedom which is unmatched in the history of the world. To not vote is to reject the sacrifice of those before us and to take our freedom for granted.
This isn’t an issue of the far past. Forty years ago African-Americans fought for the right to vote and participate politically. The were not fully Americans. Registering and showing up just isn’t that hard for a nation as privileged as we are.
Thirteen years ago, I travelled to Nicaragua for a college class. Pretty cool for a kid raised in a trailer and apartments by a single mother. While many things struck me, the most moving were three different women who told their stories of being raped by Somoza’s National Guard or Contras for nothing more than promoting democratic reform. After those incidents, those women went on to continue their fight for democracy. One worked providing training to women that would enable them to hold jobs. Another was a legislator. How can we treat something so special so flippantly that people suffered for so greatly?
I don’t weed out candidates on this issue alone. Certainly honesty and ideology are vital and I can overlook that mistake. But why should I trust someone to represent me when they wouldn’t even represent themselves?
The Present Votes
In a rejoinder to the defense of the present votes by Obama on pro-choice votes, one reader points out that some of those votes were done to provide cover for future statewide ambitions of some Dems. And thus, the story is more complex and Obama’s votes weren’t so pure.
My rejoinder to the rejoinder is if Obama was being protected by pro-choice groups wouldn’t he be soft-pedaling his stance on late term abortions? He isn’t when he specifically criticizes the recently passed bill. And more importantly, tactics matter in the US Senate more than probably any other legislative body in the democratic world.
Update: For those visiting from Eric Zorn’s Notebook, here is an earlier post that describes another Springfield Legislative tactic.
From the Peanut Gallery: Jim Oberweis for US Senate
First submission for the satirical endorsements. By That Colored Fella
In one of President George W. Bush?s inspiring new TV ads, he speaks plainly of the enduring entrepreneurial spirit of America. The results of which have sparked and fueled an economic recovery (confirmed by the infallible Vice-President Dick Cheney) that has created Illinois jobs for those who want and are eligible, to work.
Jim Oberweis embodies that entrepreneurial spirit!
His continued success as a small business owner, rewarding life as a family man and concern for his community and nation, is what drives him to seek higher office. A principled Republican, he believes deeply in the core tenants of his party: limited government, responsible fiscal policy and opportunity for all! Jim Oberweis has seen first-hand how Hillary Clinton and the Liberal elite have weakened our country, overtaxed the business sector and opened our borders, to advance their immoral vision.
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For the Democratic Nomination: Barack Obama
Rarely have I seen a field as deep and impressive as the Illinois field of candidates this election. In contrast to a the Republicans where there are only two high quality candidates out of seven, there are five out of seven who I would be proud to call my US Senator. Of those five, Barack Obama is something special in someone who embodies everything Democrats hold dear.
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For The Republican Nomination: Rack One More Up for Steve!
ArchPundit heartily endorses Steve Rauschenberger for the Republican Senate Nomination in Illinois. Let’s not get confused here, Steve is far more conservative than I and I would not vote for him in the general election. But I would get closer to voting for him than I would anyone else in that field with only Borling coming even close to Steve.
The Republican field is full of people with little public experience who seem to think it would be neat to be a Senator so they are throwing money at the possibilty of being a big important person. Good for them. But this is one of the most unqualified and unserious field of candidates I have ever seen. Two have any legislative experience–or elected experience and one of them was an appointment. One other has given admiral service to his country in the US Air Force. The others? A gadfly dairy owner. A gadfly Doctor. An industrialist who has the sole distinction of giving money to the party over time. And a stock broker who teaches high school, but is clueless in regards to his own party and state. The last will wait for a more full treatment as Illinois is about to be subjected to him for 8 more months.
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How Did the School Board Meeting Go?
I don’t know. I was stuck on the other side of a police barricade called to stop a riot from occuring. The news made it look much worse than it was, but Rochell Moore, purveyor of curses, was a no show. Tomorrow night I’ll try again as they are having a second meeting to roll out budget cuts.