It isn’t keeping the seat, they expect to lose it. If Ryan can keep it that is a bonus, but not the key. Bush is down by double digits to Kerry in Illinois and the Bush Campaign is already making noises about pulling out. Ryan was recruited because he could partially self-fund and make it a decent race. Even if he didn’t win, he’d be leading the ticket and pull out Republican voters so the down ballot races didn’t suffer. So state lege members in tight races wouldn’t have to worry about turnout sinking their chance. If he goes down in flames too late to be replaced, it could create huge problems for the Party in those Lege races.
And while most of the big news media outlets are avoiding the story, Rich Miller is covering it and getting referenced in the Hotline for it. Miller’s reporting is in a for pay daily newsletter and so I’ll only briefly summarize the work here–he does this for a living, I don’t.
1) Hastert has warned Ryan D.C. money will dry up if Ryan doesn’t deal with the issue.
2) Senate Minority Leader Watson and House Minority Leader Cross pressed the issue as well (and they are really worried). Ryan refused to answer questions about whether he’d appeal if the judge rules against him.
Knowing how this will work, even if information is only mildly embarrassing Ryan has probably lost any favors from these folks later in the race. They aren’t going to put themselves out there for a guy who won’t go along with them.
Ryan’s problems at this point are many. He is spending what should be a press honeymoon, talking about something that is not on message. His opponent is being fawned over in the press nationally and locally more than a candidate usually gets in that honeymoon after a primary.
Ryan is making party elders nervous and whether he realizes it or not, they are threatening to cut him off. He run as independent, he can’t run with a party shunning him.
He is making the press annoyed. The press, out of lots of experience, don’t trust candidates when they say “trust me”. The more they do it, the more cynical and jaded the press becomes. Ryan’s short term press problem could easily be turned into a permanent problem. Ask Hull.
Combine that with a potential appeal against the Tribune and Channel 7 and the press relationship spirals down what will seem like a black hole.
His entire outreach to the African-American community is going in the toilet. First, his opponent is black. Second, he is tied to a President who is not well liked in the African-American community. Third, even if he didn’t expect actual numbers in the African-American community, the image such a courting produces could help him elsewhere. Without it being the story, but instead a “Hollywood Divorce” with a beautiful actress being the story, Jack! goes from a compelling story of giving back to the community to a story about privilege in the court system.
None of this may be fair. He may have nothing to hide, but is deeply concerned about his son’s welfare. And that is all irrelevant. He needs to put this story to bed and do it fast.
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