The Obama Effect

On Congressional Races—Charlie Cook reclassified several races when Obama took the nomination:

Changes made about a week ago. Shays and Kirk are the obvious ones where Obama pulls out voters in their district and they are likely to get knocked off.

CA-04                     OPEN (Doolittle)      Solid Republican to Likely Republican

CO-04                     Marilyn Musgrave   Lean Republican to Toss Up

CT-04                     Chris Shays               Lean Republican to Toss Up

IL-10                       Mark Kirk                 Lean Republican to Toss Up

NM-02                    OPEN (Pearce)         Likely Republican to Lean Republican

NY-29                     Randy Kuhl               Lean Republican to Toss Up

NC-08                     Robin Hayes              Lean Republican to Toss Up

OH-01                     Steve Chabot             Lean Republican to Toss Up

VA-02                     Thelma Drake           Likely Republican to Lean Republican

WA-08                    Dave Reichert           Lean Republican to Toss Up

Not Just Sorta Wrong

Mark Kirk is just wrong….Josh has more of the Wheeling Republican Township Meeting and Mark Kirk making shit up.

Let’s first take Kirk’s claim that “15 million” of the 47 million uninsured Americans are illegal immigrants. His assumption seems to be that all undocumented immigrants currently residing in the country lack health care. To the contrary, a study (PDF) recently released by the National Institute for Health Care Management put the number of uninsured illegal immigrants at approximately 5.6 million. If the Kirk campaign wants to send over materials supporting their “15 million” claim, I’d be more than happy to post their response.

Secondly, we have Kirk’s assertion no one under the poverty line “lack[s] healthcare in America.” This is just blatantly false. A 2007 report by the Kaiser Foundation found that 36 percent (or 16.7 million) of the non-elderly uninsured have incomes below the poverty level. So why aren’t these folks covered by Medicaid? Because you must either be disabled, pregnant, or have dependents to be eligible for the program — a fact lost on Kirk, apparently.

As they say, read the whole thing. Mark Kirk is dangerously ignorant of the US Health Care system.

Here’s a Kaiser Foundation breakdown on who lacks healthcare amongst the non-elderly (Pie charts are evil, but it gets the point across):

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Apparently Dan Seals was Supposed to Have Vapors

Shockingly, the Dan Rostenkowski gives Dan Seals an envelope is pretty much a non-story.

Let’s run down what happens. In a class on government, Dan Rostenkowski visits the class–Rosty being former chair of the House Ways and Means Committee understands Congress better than 99% of Congress even.  He gives an envelope unsolicited to Dan Seals.  Seals is nice and takes the envelope, finds out later it’s a contribution from Rostenkowski and politely returns the donation.

What else was he supposed to do?  Have vapors and throw a tantrum? He is no Frank Burns.

Randy Blaser picks up the real story:

So why is the GOP focusing their attacks on a couple of non-issues, like Seals’ causing a traffic jam with his gasoline purchase stunt, and this evil classroom envelope passing? I guess when you’re responsible for a tanking economy and a war built on deceit, what else have you got?

How is that working out for the GOP?

I’m somewhat baffled by the attacks or should I say ‘attack’ on Dan’s credentials to be teaching such a class:

Dan returned to the United States to continue his education by pursuing a master’s degree in international economics and Japan studies from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). Upon completing his master’s degree, SAIS nominated Dan for-and he won-the prestigious Presidential Management Fellowship. Dan served as an Aide to the Assistant Secretary of Commerce and as an Economics Fellow in the U.S. Senate. Dan tracked exports of U.S. technology to foreign markets at the Department of Commerce, and worked on tax, budget, economic development and international trade issues in the Senate. After completing his fellowship, Dan returned home to pursue an M.B.A. at the University of Chicago. Dan began work as a manager at Sprint and then as Director of Marketing at GE Capital. Currently, Dan is a business consultant and adjunct professor at Northwestern University. Dan and his wife Mia have been married for 10 years and live in Wilmette with their three daughters.

The Presidential Management Fellowship is a highly competitive Fellowship and quite impressive.

The overall background isn’t much different than this guy:

Representative Kirk graduated from New Trier High School and attended the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico before earning a B.A. from Cornell. He holds a Masters Degree from the London School of Economics and a law degree from Georgetown.

Oh, and the people who have donated to Mark Kirk who he accepted donations from:

FEC records show Kirk received financial support from Americans for a Republican Majority, a PAC formed by Tom DeLay. As reports of misconduct surfaced against DeLay in 2004, Kirk returned all monies received from ARMPAC immediately.

Mark Kirk received a donation from Congressman Bob Ney, who pled guilty to bribery. Kirk refunded the Ney contribution in the 2nd quarter of 2006.

Kirk received funds from American Prosperity PAC, which was controlled by Republican Duke Cunningham, who pled guilty to federal charges. Kirk refunded the Cunningham contribution and contributions from all parties affiliated with the case when news of wrongdoing first became public.

Kirk accepted contributions from Tony Rezko, [8] who is currently facing federal charges of attempted extortion, money laundering, and fraud.

REZKO! REZKO! REZKO! I have vapors!

The Best of the Internets Strikes Again


Hillaryis44 author in 2006:

�Good news for Dems right? Now Sherrod has a clear path to the coronation�er�nomination. Well it�s been less than 24 hours since Hackett announced the end of his campaign and all hell has broken loose. The base is literally fracturing around us. It is very unclear whether there is enough duct tape and glue to patch it back together in time to make a competitive run at Republican Mike DeWine�s seat. The fault lines run deep in the Ohio Democratic base�much deeper than the establishment thought. Progressive, energetic, and loyal Democratic activists are literally closing up shop or switching their party status as I type this. The national media is stunned that the Ohio Democratic Party and the Democratic Party leadership in Congress would literally destroy the political career of one of its newest, freshest, and most energizing faces.�

 

Hillaryis44 2008:

Obama will either concede now or in November.

Obama won’t win Democrats he needs to win (like the Democrats on this very website). In state after state many Democrats clearly state they will either NOT vote, vote for the unacceptable John McCain, or write in Hillary’s name. That Democrats, many who have never voted for a Republican or nightmared about voting for a Republican, to say they will vote for a Republican is shocking and foreshadows doom for the Democratic? Party in November – if Superdelegates actually vote for Rezko/Ayres/Pfleger/Wright/Farrakhan’s friend – Obama.

Hillary supporters will not vote for Obama on any ticket. Last night, at the Hillary rally, the shouts were Denver, Denver – not tears nor surrender.

No tears nor surrender came from the voters of South Dakota either. No matter how much Big Media insisted Obama was the nominee the people voted for Hillary. Big Media cannot force feed Obama to “bitter” small town America.

It appears overwrought drama is Alex Rodriguez’s specialty in life.

Today:

Democratic Latinos, White Working Class voters, and women, will not come home in NOvember. Women will NOt vote for race-baiting, gay-bashing, women-hating Barack Obama in NOvember:

Barack Obama at last has won the endorsement of Hillary Rodham Clinton, the woman who came closer to the Democratic presidential nomination than any other. Now he has to win over her millions of female supporters.

Women have been sent to “the back of the bus” again, says Mary Jane Coughlin, 46, a Long Island copywriter who says she will write in Clinton’s name in November rather than vote for Obama. “We work twice as hard to get half as far.”

Four years ago, women made up more than half the electorate. Democrat John Kerry edged out President Bush among women, 51%-48%, according to surveys of voters as they left polling places.

We Democrats are not coming home in NOvember. Some Democrats will vote for another candidate. Some Democrats will write-in Hillary. Some Democrats will take a cue from Obama and vote “Present” – in other words no vote in the presidential race.

The real wonder is how long will he continue.  It’s great parody even if by accident.

It’s Not Hard to Diagnose the Clinton Campaign’s Fundamental Problem

 

They ran one of the finest campaigns of the 20th Century while Obama’s campaign ran the best campaign of the 21st Century so far. 

One of the most untold stories is Joe Rospars creating a strategy that allowed Obama supporters to self-organize and create communities under the umbrella of the official campaign web site.  The odd thing is that while Peter Daou’s focus would have been different for Hillary’s campaign, they didn’t let him do anything creative until after she was losing.  Two of the most talented web people in progressive politics were on opposing sides–one was utilized, one was not until it was too late. 

 

One of the under-written stories of this campaign is the lack of access to Obama. But because access to Clinton was even harder to come by, it never became an issue.

Openness to the media might have gone a long way to thaw some of those negative stereotypes.

Clinton supporters may read that last statement and say, “Aha! See, there is your evidence of anti-Clinton bias!”

My favorite picture of campaign was of Lynn Sweet doing her job

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Mark has a Point

 

Mark Johnson wonders what Morgenthaller knew about Rezko’s training biz:

With yesterday’s announcement that Tony Rezko is guilty of 16 counts in his corruption trial, it is time for Jill Morgenthaler to start answering questions. Morgenthaler, candidate for IL-06, was a senior advisor to the Blagojevich administration and was the one who helped find a location for Rezko’s company to train Iraqi police forces.
 
The Chicago Sun Times wrote:  
 
“As Frawley [Rezko’s buisness partner] sought to revive the contract in spring 2006, Blagojevich’s chief of staff, John Harris, directed the state’s homeland security adviser, Jill Morgenthaler, to find "a military site for the training of Iraqi police forces,” Morgenthaler wrote in an April 26, 2006, e-mail. She wrote the letter in June 2006 offering the Savanna site.” (Chicago Sun Times, August 7, 2007)

So the tough question for Morgenthaler is…….
 
How much did Morgenthaler know about Frawley and Rezko and the contract when she was doing Blagojevich’s bidding?

The answer is probably not much.  Blagojevich tended to keep the politics to himself and tell people to do stuff.  It’s still legitimate to ask.

What’s Most Baffling About the IL GOP?

Blagojevich brings them together….

 

They still cannot beat the idiot Governor we have.  Or even push effectively for impeachment. 

While some were looking toward 2010, Republicans have a more immediate fight on their hands in November now that Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president. His emergence this week is expected to draw more Democrats to the polls to vote for the junior senator from Illinois.

Despite the likelihood of what he called a "favorite son effect," Illinois Republican Party Chairman Andy McKenna said Democrats have a tough record to defend.

"People come to me — particularly reporters — saying, geez isn’t it hard, Senator Obama’s going to be on the top of the ticket here in Illinois," McKenna said. "I say to them, it gives us both the opportunity and the responsibility to say to people, ‘What does Democratic leadership mean?’"

Brady said Obama’s liberal political stance could also be a weak point.

"There’s a great number of people in this state who do not agree with what Barack Obama believes in," Brady said.

And you guys keep losing to him and the Democrats.  Which in general is a good thing to me, but the reality is the GOP has a Democratic Governor who should be impeached and are headed towards losses…again.

And the people making the case the strongest aren’t the Republicans, but the press, Chambers:

 

But in political circles, Rezko was well known — even in 2003, when Blagojevich took office — as a prolific fundraiser. He raised gobs and gobs of money for pols like Blagojevich and U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois. He understood how to get people with money into the same room, and how to get those people to hand their money over to the pol of his choice. In doing so, Rezko ingratiated himself to those pols.

Rezko raised an estimated $1.4 million for Blagojevich’s campaign fund, according to an FBI agent who testified at Rezko’s trial.

When Blagojevich took office as governor after campaigning on a promise to clean up state government in the wake of Gov. George Ryan’s scandal-tarred administration, he handed control over much of state government directly to Rezko, according to numerous witnesses who testified at Rezko’s trial.

The governor’s patronage chief had breakfast with Rezko on Monday mornings to talk about job openings that Rezko might wish to fill. The governor’s chief of staff reportedly cleared key decisions with Rezko. Rezko hand-picked some state agency directors. He attended the governor’s high-level meetings. He even sat in the room when Susan Lichtenstein interviewed to be the governor’s chief legal counsel.

The notion that Blagojevich yielded to Rezko because he was sincerely determined to include “new people” who “understand business” in the administration of state government — rather than because Rezko packed $1.4 million into his campaign fund — is nothing short of absurd.

Miller:

The governor’s word is mud. There is almost nothing he can do to salvage that. Admitting his past mistakes won’t help, partly because he is so thoroughly trapped by those old mistakes

No one believes the man.  There’s a good reason for that.  He’s a lying sack of crap. 

And Democrats themselves…

Fritchey nails it:

The Governor’s need to surround himself with sycophants unwilling to question the misguided wisdom of his strategies, coupled with individuals all too willing to play that role, have done untold damage not just to the Administration, but more importantly, to our fine state.

There were a few who tried to fix things and they eventually left and gave up.  I’m thinking in particular about an effort to reach out to bloggers and the netroots that died with the staff member moving on.  It was one of the best exchanges with the typical political institutions and bloggers. It didn’t last.  Now the sycophants are even leaving. 

The attacks on Fritchey were shameless

I will say one thing–Dan Hynes needs to step it up and do more than issue policy positions and warnings about the fiscal state of Illinois. He’s talented, smart, but too averse to making a splash. His role should be to lead the Party in pushing Blagojevich to the side, but he’s still missing in action too often.  While I think Hynes likes to be a workhorse and not a showhorse, sometimes the workhorse has to be a showhorse and this is one  of those times.