Blagojevich at 41% approval/53% disapproval.
Those numbers are bad, but before everyone jumps up and down and says he can’t win, Granholm has slightly higher disapproval numbers and is considered a likely candidate for reelection.
Yes, very vulnerable.
No, not a sure thing to beat.
His biggest problem is that the longer he stays above 50% disapproval, the harder it is to reduce those numbers.
Amongst Democratic voters he has a 55% approval rating which is pretty damn low. His best numbers ideologically come from self-described moderates meaning the more liberal base is open to a challenge, though with his SEUI support, I’d still say he’s the prohibitive favorite to be renominated.
He is getting alot of free face time in the Chicago media with the ISHTA project of the day. You know it’s election season when they are pouring concrete in December. IMO Playing Santa Rod over the holidays gets him to the +\- crossover point sometime in January. If so it’s game over. Incumbency and cash on hand will win out.
By contrast the challangers have dissappeared into the media memory hole. A narrative beyond “Rod sucks” is needed.