He does month in review for Hastert.
Key graph:
Hastert?s people, however, expressed shock that this story was big news. That?s simple: it?s the huge profit in such a short time, and the insiders involved. Your average person isn?t able to put such a lucrative deal together on short order. Hastert with his six-figure congressional salary and insider pals, was able to do so. At a time when people are nervous about retirement, Hastert was able to feather his nest for his own retirement, which could come as soon as November or as late as when President Bush leaves office two years later. Perception is reality, and such a quick move is bound to leave a sour taste among district voters.
What used to pass for “no big deal” in government if finally getting more scrutiny from the press. It’s going to be a long campaign season if you’re an incumbent.
ArchPundit
Listen…I’m no Hastert apologist, but Krol’s off on at least one issue. The Speaker’s month wasn’t soooo bad. Bilbray beat Busby out in Duke Cunningham’s seat.
If that’s not a harbinger for fall, I don’t know what is.
Denny can strut his stuff around knowing that a lot of worse stuff needs to happen for him to loose the majority.
Look at the underlying numbers Jake–IL-6 and IL-11 switch parties if similar turnout and independent break occurs in the fall as happened in CA-50.
I’ll do a full post Monday on the issue, but CA-50 had 4-5 points higher Bush numbers than either 6 or 11.
That’s not a good sign for Denny, it’s a recipe for a fall disaster.
Ok…maybe you’re right, but we both know that the turnout won’t be low in the fall in 6&8. That’s because there’s the gov’s race and a whole slew of house/senate races.
The GOP will hold onto the majority in the fall. I don’t quite know why/how the American public isn’t paying attention to somethings, but they’re not.
Either that…or it’s that the democrats aren’t a very good option, either…
Given Judy’s anemic campaign–she does have one doesn’t she? Anyone? Bueller? In fact, other than Radgogno there are virtually no Republican campaigns to excite people other than Congress and when Congress is what people are mad at….
The general prediction is a very low turnout election everywhere, with the bases determining who wins—and there is a double digit difference between Democrats and Republicans in intensity. CA-50 had about 7 point higher turnout for Dems than Republicans, but the overall number of Republicans swamped Busby. In 6 and 11, there isn’t as wide of a partisan make-up. In fact, the 11 numbers I have and will write up on Monday are pretty amazing.
The numbers nationally and the local numbers I’ve seen for Republicans are horrible. It’s probably fair to say incumbents as a whole are in danger, but as with any election, that hits the majority the hardest.
Things that can change that include a Blagojevich indictment which might balance out the state effects, but that’s not sure either.
Giannoulias may be in over his head.
But get over the love affair with Radogno. Radogno is under-the-thumb of people who make money off of gov’t–in ways that aren’t 100% on the up-and-up.
There’s no reason to get excited about Radogno.
Arch, you’re thesis about turnout is right. Every primary has had low turnout. The Dems haven’t got a message that appeals to or excites infrequent voters.
The Dem base is motivated by the GOP. The GOP base is demoralized by the GOP. But the Dems haven’t made a compelling case to switch control of gov’t from GOP to Dem.
Dems love the idea of winning each race individually. The Beltway establishment is hostile to the idea there should be a national message.
As of now, I’m predicting GOP incumbents underperforming but generally winning.
Well, Denny shouldn’t be too comfortable. John Laesch is gonna unseat the Goliath. If folks elsewhere are as happy with Mr. Hastert as they are in DeKalb, we will have a new Congressman. Finally, folks in IL-14 will get some representation in Washington without having to pay a lobbyist (like DeKalb Co. and others).