The following is from an anonymous reader–I think it is great analysis so pass it along in its entirety:
While there is still no official budget deal yet, there is little doubt that House Speaker Mike Madigan will emerge from the legislative session as the big winner, while Governor Blagojevich has been handed a humiliating defeat. The way Madigan appears to have done this is both simple and brilliant.
Blagojevich spent all session attacking the ?old way? General Assembly. He refused to negotiate on his budget. He demanded that Speaker Madigan and Senate President Jones pass the budget he submitted. He threatened massive cuts and layoffs, overtime session, and/or special session, to ensure he got what he wanted.
In return, Madigan has provided the Governor an important lesson in understanding how government works, and its importance in achieving political goals.
You see, overtime requires a 3/5 majority to pass a budget, and Madigan understood that an overtime session was never going to strengthen the hand of the Governor. It only strengthens the hands of the minority leaders ? neither of whom were members of the Governor?s party or his allies.
Madigan also understood that the 3/5 majority required of an overtime session also happens to be VETO PROOF.
So, while Blagojevich blustered about overtime and made demands of the General Assembly, Madigan spent the legislative session quietly reeling in the two GOP minority leaders from the House and Senate, and making them his allies.
The result has been that, since Thursday, the 3 of the 4 legislative caucuses have been working cooperatively to pass a compromise budget that will attain a 3/5 majority. The only holdout at this point in Emil Jones ? and he?s not holding out for the Governor, rather, he?s holding out for his own spending priorities.
The ?budgeteers? continue to meet through the weekend and are reportedly making good progress toward a final budget. And the Governor?s people aren?t even at the table, nor are they needed, because the budget will have enough votes to become law without the Governor?s approval.
Congratulations, Governor. You just cut yourself out of the process!
The act of crafting a budget that will become law without the Governor?s involvement is a development without precedent in the state of Illinois. It promises to be, quite literally, the most humiliating legislative session for a sitting Governor in recent history.
This might be the appropriate point to crack a joke about the first step to playing with the big boys, is actually making sure you have a seat at the table?.
Good analysis. Madigan is indeed teaching Blago about the balance of power in IL. Although now we know how much power Blago really has over the budget, we also know who had the past power to spend us into our inflated budget. Blago could still come out smelling like a peach, but as you demonstrate, it’s doubtful he’s smart enough to figure that out.
I agree. Excellent analysis. I wonder if Blago knows he has lost yet?
If the budget is popular then Blagojevich is the loser. What if it is not popular? Then can Gov. Bolshevik begin running around the state blaming the GA?
Don’t we have to wait until we know what’s in the budget before declaring winners and losers?
The governor oversees about 2 dozen agencies and commissions. The budget is being crafted for all of these operations without his input — and there is nothing he can do about it.
I think that qualifies as a loss
Exactly Greg, but don’t give him any hints. Blago’s lost the budget war, but could still win the public/political war. Next year at this time, we’ll know the winner. And it’s no coincidence that Madigan is starting to talk to the media again.