Cegelis came within 10 of Hyde. Two things would be needed here–probably a slightly more moderate candidate and money. Money. Money. Money. It hit close to my prediction.
Renner, well, not so good of a showing and I was completely off on the prediction.
Bean did a great job and after a week or so thinking about her office needs to start running for 2006. I was close on the prediction.
Have you ever thought that maybe why Cegelis did as well as she did is because she is less moderate.
There are plenty of us who think the solution for the Democratic party is not to move to the right but move to the left and fight for what makes us the Democratic party, the people, not corporations.
Another good note, in the 17th (my own, since the re-drawing of districts), Lane Evans kept his seat by beating Andrea Zinga 61% to 39%. Proving once and for all that attacking someone’s health is the wrong way to go. If she had any other issues or platform, those were drowned out by her own noise about Evans’ health.
I’m very happy about Lane’s contest. I expected that though. Labor would come through in the end and that woman was annoying
In terms of the Democrats, look, you can’t win by being far to the left in a moderate to conservative district. It’s the same thing I preach to conservative Republicans in Illinois. You can’t move too far away from the median voter and win. There are exceptions who can overcome that by their rhetoric, but in a moderate district a moderate has the best chance.
I like the very liberal members of the Democratic caucus and I like the moderate members of the Democratic caucus, but if they two don’t coexist, neither can win in the larger picture.
I have to agree with the first poster.
I don’t think that Cegelis lost one vote because her positions were perceived to be “too leftist.” She lost because too many people got to the voting booth and said “Who?” That is merely a function of money.
That race, like the presidential race, was a referrendum on the well-known incumbent. Sure Cegelis is to the left of most of the people in DuPage County, but so is Barack Obama and he received 33,000 more votes than George W. Bush in DuPage County.
Cegelis and her young campaign staff worked like crazy and I think that she could have won if she had had some more money to get her name out to voters.
Same challenge I make to people–why is the median voter theorem not applying in these situations?
I agree with AP here. Don’t nominate left or far left candidates in DuPage and expect to do well (not that I know enough about Cegilis). In DuPage run center or center-left candidates. In Cook and maybe even Lake, you run left candidates. There is a real echo chamber effect (caused by reading dailyKos too much, despite how much I like the site) that makes people think they can win by running the purest, farthest left candidate they can find.
Still, I was quite encouraged at how well Obama did in DuPage, though I seriously doubt he would have carried it against Jack Ryan.