While it’s shocking to think that in modern America we’d leave people in a major natural disaster when we have warning, the reality is that there is virtually no method to move over 100,000 people in 72 hours.
The Trib does a decent article, and certainly better than this Florida article.
Holding up Florida as an example opens the question of what are the plans for its major cities.
The interesting question is who gets help out of their home? In all cases, the disabled, but not the average person
Miami-Dade Public transportation takes people to shelters of last resort. One big improvement is the impetus put on hotels that was lacking in New Orleans.
Tampa may have a plan to move people without cars, but the County’s website doesn’t indicate how it is done. As with Miami-Dade there is a special needs registry.
Jacksonville Same as Hillsborough County, no mention of those without cars and only a special needs registry.
And the Florida site for hurricane preparedness only discusses car evacuation.
Despite the claims, in major urban centers, there isn’t any evidence that any city can evacuate more than the special needs population without transportation.
LSU has a review of national preparedness. A few things stick out–Louisiana has a far longer period of evacuation orders than any other state included in the study.
On page 18 you see the use of public transportation doesn’t vary much amongst the states at risk. Public buses aren’t realistic and while the mention of alternatives is there, the problem comes as competing needs for the limited infrastructure are made.
Nagin made the point on Meet the Press that getting drivers is very difficult in a mandatory evacuation.
In the now famous Washing Away series, the problem of counting on buses and other means is pointed out in a bit of detail:
Click on the link below to read that section after the jump.
Don?t bank on shelters
The American Red Cross, which runs federally designated emergency shelters, changed its policy in the mid-1990s after a shelter in South Carolina flooded and people inside nearly drowned. Now the agency bars shelters in areas that can be inundated by a storm surge from a Category 4 hurricane — which is all of south Louisiana.
Local parishes plan to shelter only those with “special needs,” people who cannot be moved. In New Orleans, the Superdome will be used for this purpose.
In lieu of traditional shelters, which offer food and bedding, some parishes plan to open “refuges of last resort” — buildings that are not safe but are safer than homes. They can house at most a few hundred people per parish, officials say. Most others will be on their own, meaning that in a catastrophic storm more than a 200,000 people could be left at the mercy of the elements.
Faced with those numbers, New Orleans officials have backup plans to move people without transportation: Regional Transit Authority buses and National Guard vehicles would take people out of the city. But the untested plan has raised serious questions from critics who say it could endanger hundreds of thousands of residents.
In an evacuation, buses would be dispatched along their regular routes throughout the city to pick up people and go to the Superdome, which would be used as a staging area. From there, people would be taken out of the city to shelters to the north.
Some experts familiar with the plans say they won?t work.
“That?s never going to happen because there?s not enough buses in the city,” said Charley Ireland, who retired as deputy director of the New Orleans Office of Emergency Preparedness in 2000. “Between the RTA and the school buses, you?ve got maybe 500 buses, and they hold maybe 40 people each. It ain?t going to happen.”
The plan has other potential pitfalls.
No signs are in place to notify the public that the regular bus stops are also the stops for emergency evacuation. In Miami Beach, Fla., every other bus stop sports a huge sign identifying it as a hurricane evacuation stop.
It?s also unclear whether the city?s entire staff of bus drivers will remain. A union spokesman said that while drivers are aware of the plan, the union contract lacks a provision requiring them to stay.
But RTA safety director Joseph Dorsey said the requirement is part of an operator?s individual contract with the RTA. “Basically, when an operator is hired, there are certain things they agree to, such as working overtime hours when necessary and doing this job,” Dorsey said. “They will participate.”
A similar plan in Monroe County, Fla. — the Florida Keys — failed during Georges when drivers opted out. “The problem is that we may have the buses but we don?t have the drivers,” said Irene Toner, director of the county?s emergency management office. “In Hurricane Georges we had 25 people on our bus-driver list and only five showed up.”
All of this is exactly why every parish in Southeast Louisiana expected a 48-60 hour response time, but FEMA didn’t follow through on their end of the plan.
Very interested theme, with attention I will read following registration fees.