Sweet covered the essentials today in her column.
It’s a Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal poll:
The following is a summary of findings from a telephone survey conducted among 400 likely voters in the Sixth Congressional District of Illinois. Interviews were conducted May 9-11, 2006. The sampling error for this survey is
plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Hard numbers:
Roskam: 35%
Duckworth 34%
Leaners
Roskam 40%
Duckworth 40%
Other parts of the memo:
Despite the Republican nature of the district (49% Republican, 36% Democrat), the political environment presents an opportunity for Duckworth. Specifically:
? Just 27% think things in this country are going in the right direction while 58% think things are on the wrong track.
? Only 34% think President Bush is doing an excellent or good job as President while 65% disapprove of Bush?s job performance. More four in ten (42%) rate his performance as poor.
? More have an unfavorable opinion of President Bush (48%) than have a favorable impression of him (43%).
65% disapproval of George Bush in the 6th CD. Heh. 48% don’t even like Bush. Statewide, Survey USA has Bush at 67% Disapproval and 73% disapproval in Suburban Cook. with the collar counties the only place he’s even close to breaking even with 47% disapproval (DuPage is collar under Survey USA and many polls).
Considering Roskam is also an incumbent representing a part of the area this is a hard result.
Roskam wants to localize the race, hence discussing a potential lease deal on the tollways, but the problem is this is a national race with a national candidate who is in many ways the face of the war. Add to that, Roskam is generally more conservative than Bush and it’s pretty difficult to figure out how the race becomes localized. Adding to his problems, that pesky DeLay fundraiser around the time of DeLay’s indictment, Roskam has to run away from people who have supported him fairly strongly to win.
The numbers one really needs to see are the intensity numbers for this year though. All national evidence points toward a Republican base that isn’t terribly motivated and a Democratic base that is fired up. The mitigating factors could be a motivated DuPage County getting out the vote for Birkett, but in the recent Survey USA poll between Topinka and Blagojevich don’t show her above 50% in the collars–given his unpopularity in that area, that’s a real problem for Republicans all around.
If I were going to localize the race I’d point out that Republicans were cutting taxes on the richest Americans while forcing local government to raise property taxes. The tax burden is being shifted from the rich to middle-class homeowners.
But I don’t think this will help Sen. Roskam.
Peter Roskam
* Opposed fixing the Illinois death penalty
* Opposed stem cell research
* Advocated eliminating records of gun purchases
* Supports the war in Iraq
Peter Roskam: Talks life, votes death
Small problem, Carl…
The “Rich” who are receiving the tax cuts live in her District (DuPage Co.). And THEY are the ones Duckworth needs to win over to beat Roskam.
Rubbing their noses in the tax cuts they’ve received may not be the best approach.
Mike,
How do you define “rich”? Because most people in Duckworth’s district (and I’m glad you are alreading conceding that it will be her district) don’t qualify as the “rich” per the actual tax breaks. Those who make $250K and more benefitted most, the rest, nominally to none. While her district is more affluent than most it is a minority who qualify as “rich” under the Bush Tax i.e. transfer of wealth. Look at the HH income averages of Lombard, Addison and yes even Elmhurst, they are all below $85,000. Those tax cuts are the reason everyone is running to pledge a cap on property taxes because the Feds are putting more of the burden on the states so the “rich” can pay less. Why would anyone vote for a Republican who will merely be a “rubber stamp”, like the rest already there, and cut taxes at most of Duckworth’s district’s expense. We need someone who will fight the district, not for an idealogues few benefactors.
I live in the sixth district and I can tell you. A: we are the wealthiest county in Illinois, B: my family makes under 50K last year and we benefitted greatly under the Bush tax cuts. I have 3 kids so that means $3000 off the top. You think I am going to vote for someone whom I think may repeal those cuts. No Way! I can’t afford it.
Ummm….Duckworth doesn’t support repealing the per child tax credits. So Christine, you can vote for Tammy with no worries.
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Marriage tax penalty and per-child tax credits: I support the repeal of the marriage tax penalty and the addition of per-child tax credits in the initial Bush tax package, because their benefits accrue largely to middle-income families who need them. In Congress, I would support efforts to make those tax changes permanent.
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