Cattle call missed last week, but hey, the Earth shook and it is back.
First, read Steve Neal’s article that is essentially a love fest for Hynes.

The key paragraph is here:

The co-chairmen of his campaign include Cook County Commissioner John P. Daley, County Board President John H. Stroger, Mellody Hobson of Ariel Capital Management, Illinois Senate Majority Leader Vince Demuzio of Carlinville and Laborers’ union official Ed Smith of Cairo.

Burying my head up my ass I was going on about how Daley has been selling Hull, but as was pointed out by a sharp eyed e-mailer, Daley isn’t going to back someone against his old friend Thomas Hynes and the proof is above. John Daley is on board and while that doesn’t absolutely guarantee Richard is going to follow, it is a pretty good bet. Additionally, Stroger has signed on to support Dan Hynes.

More important is Demuzio and Ed Smith. In a divided primary southern Illinois Labor matters a lot. Ask G-Rod and Dick Mell. Jerry Costello pulled out the corrupt Belleville machine and labor to pull off a narrow victory over Paul Vallas in the 2002 primary for Governor. With everyone being from Chicagoland, this might be the key. The open question I haven’t seen answered yet is where is Jerry "unindicted co-conspirator" Costello in this race. Demuzio is a clue, but not a definitive one.

Costello is close to G-Rod and Mell (Chicago Alderman and G-Rod father-in-law) and Richard Devine. He was pushing Devine to run for Governor and offered his machine up. The Devines (Richard and sons) are close with G-Rod and Mell as well. Mell and G-Rod are potentially behind Blair Hull, the multi-millionaire running for Senate as well. Hull provided the plane for G-Rod to campaign on and was the biggest contributor. Where Costello ends up probably determines whether this race is a Hynes coronation or a three way race with Hynes-Hull-Obama.

How this breaks down in the City is the four big players are the Daleys, Mell/G-Rod, Thomas Hynes, and Madigan (Da Speaker). Emil Jones and the Jacksons I place separately because of the way Illinois politics works. My assumptions as of now is that Hynes, Madigan and Daleys back little Hynes. Mell/G-Rod back Hull minus a giant meltdown.

Amongst African-American players, Jackson has backed Obama and is making noises for him. The Jacksons carry a lot of weight around the state amongst African-Americans despite the significant distate for Sr. in civil rights circles. Emil Jones is growing as a power broker and, as noted last week, is a close friend of Thomas Hynes having represented the same district at one time. For Obama to make it a close race, he needs unified African-American support.

Chico has money. Unfortunately money doesn’t beat money and organization.

Pappas is the wild card.

So the new Cattle Call is:

1) Dan Hynes
2) Hull
3) Obama
4) Pappas
5) Anyone
6) Chico

Obama is low because he hasn’t proven himself. Hull falls with Costello. Pappas, who the hell knows. I still have the feeling someone will move her to a 2006 spot-perhaps Secretary of State. Chico has Daley and Guiterrez against him–are you kidding me?

My preferences:
1-2) Obama – Hynes
I like ’em both. Obama has the heart, Hynes has the head
3) Pappas–I think she is stronger versus Peter
4) Hull– Fourth place isn’t a slam.
5) Anyone
6) Chico-with Daley and Guiterrez sabotaging you–might as well call Chuck Percy out of retirement and convince him to run as a Democrat

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