Get Your Sierra Club Endorsements over at Illinoize
ArchPundit
Jack Darin makes a case for several of the candidates the Illinois Sierra Club has endorsed
It’s a good bi-partisan list–make sure you know whether your legislature is on there.
Uncategorized
Schlafly Radio Spot
RADIO — 60 SECONDS
ON TUESDAY, REPUBLICANS WILL VOTE FOR THE HEART AND SOUL OF OUR PARTY. THIS IS PHYLLIS SCHLAFLY, PRESIDENT OF EAGLE FORUM. MANY OF YOU KNOW ME FROM MY YEARS WORKING FOR CONSERVATIVE AND PRO-LIFE CANDIDATES. TODAY I AM ASKING YOU TO SUPPORT JIM OBERWEIS FOR GOVERNOR.
REPUBLICAN VOTERS NEED TO RALLY BEHIND ONE CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATE. JIM OBERWEIS IS THAT CANDIDATE. HE WILL PROTECT THE SANCTITY OF INNOCENT LIFE, SUPPORT THE PRO-FAMILY MARRIAGE AMENDMENT, STAND UP FOR OUR 2ND AMENDMENT RIGHTS AND LEAD THE FIGHT HERE IN ILLINOIS AGAINST ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION.
IF THESE ARE ISSUES THAT YOU CARE ABOUT, THEN IT IS IMPORTANT THAT JIM OBERWEIS GETS YOUR SUPPORT. JIM IS THE ONLY CANDIDATE WHO CAN BEAT LIBERAL JUDY TOPINKA IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY. DON’T BE FOOLED BY OTHER CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATES WHO SAY THEY CAN WIN. A VOTE FOR ANYONE OTHER THAN JIM OBERWEIS IS A VOTE FOR JUDY TOPINKA.
PLEASE VOTE FOR JIM OBERWEIS FOR GOVERNOR IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ON TUESDAY, MARCH 21.
If God wanted you to be the candidate, it wouldn’t matter how many straws you have
Hmmmm…so if I lose money at the Blackjack table, what does that mean God wants? Does it mean he wants Jennifer to kick my ass? Just a thought, but for those of you confused, the Uberweis suggested a game of chance to his earnest rivals Gidwitz and Brady which would decide who remained in the race.
Not satisfied with just playing a game of chance, Uberweis suggested he have 10 chances to one chance for each of them.
The best is this though:
Oberweis said that he called Brady and Gidwitz and asked them to “pull out and support me” but refused to confirm the details. He said he was “stunned” Brady would discuss a private conversation.
I have this image of him being put in a nice straightjacket saying, “I’m stunned that Bill Brady told everyone I am Jesus Christ and that I was going to strike down Judy with a lightning bolt. I mean, can you imagine sharing something told to you in confidence?”
Defending Brady Again
Part of the screed goes into how Brady violated FEC rules while Jack Roeser’s honest mistake was just about negotiations.
Let’s look at the Brady problem. Brady’s Federal Account had no activity since his year end report in 2000. Brady and Eugene Funk, his treasurer, then failed to file the 2001 end of year report, made all reports in 2002, and then screwed up 2003 adn 2004 reports by filing late and getting late notices. The only reason the account was left open was Brady had loaned himself $50,000 with $42,000 of that unpaid and about $35,000 cash on hand. He probably left it open with the theory that he could get the extra $7000 from somewhere. It was a dumb choice, but mainly careless. There were no monetary transactions after the end of the year in 2000 so not filing was dumb for the reason we now are talking about it, but nothing more than a technical violation since nothing was being hidden. In each case, Brady dealt with it within a few months.
On the other hand, Roeser’s violations were violations of reporting money contributed to his PAC. It’s fine to say that he gave the money and so it isn’t a big deal, but the entire point of campaign finance disclosure is to enable voters to determine from where the money is coming. Roeser gets fined and then ignores it for nearly four years—only getting around to it after the Trib and others started to ask questions.
Brady made a series of dumb mistakes. Roeser found the time to fund an number of candidates and issues over four years, but couldn’t be bothered to follow the primary requirement of Illinois election law.
But worse is the absolute dishonest of the actual charge from FTN. They don’t even mention the delinquent reports, but instead focus upon an administrative termination.
More incredibly, Brady fails to mention that on June 8, 2004, the Federal Election Commission administratively terminated one of his campaign committees ? the one from his 2000 failed race for Congress. Brady is proposing Federal election type rules for Illinois ? but yet he apparently had trouble complying with the Federal reporting obligations after his Federal campaign ended. So the FEC eventually just terminated Brady?s Federal committee on its own.
Administrative termination is not something done because of a violation. It is done when certain circumstances are met and the campaign does not object:
? 102.4 Administrative termination (2
U.S.C. 433(d)(2)).
(a) The Commission, on its own initiative
or upon the request of the political
committee itself, may administratively
terminate a political committee?s
reporting obligation on the basis
of the following factors:
(1) The committee?s aggregate reported
financial activity in one year is
less than $5000;
(2) The committee?s reports disclose
no receipt of contributions for the previous
year;
(3) The committee?s last report disclosed
minimal expenditures;
(4) The committee?s primary purpose
for filing its reports has been to disclose
outstanding debts and obligations;
(5) The committee has failed to file
reports for the previous year;
(6) The committee?s last report disclosed
that the committee?s outstanding
debts and obligations do not
appear to present a possible violation
of the prohibitions and limitations of
11 CFR parts 110 and 114;
(7) The committee?s last report disclosed
that the Committee does not
have substantial outstanding accounts
receivable;
(8) The committee?s outstanding
debts and obligations exceed the total
of the committee?s reported cash on
hand balance.
(b) The Commission shall send a notification
to the committee treasurer of
its intent to administratively terminate
that committee and may request
the treasurer to submit information
with regard to the factors set forth at
11 CFR 102.4(a). The treasurer shall respond,
in writing, within 30 days of receipt
of the Commission?s notice or request
and if the committee objects to
such termination, the committee?s response
shall so state.
(c) The Commission shall administratively
terminate a committee if such
committee fails to object to the Commission?s
action under 11 CFR 102.4(b)
and the Commission determines that
either:
(1) The committee has complied with
the debt settlement procedures set
forth at 11 CFR part 116.
(2) The Commission has approved the
forgiveness of any loan(s) owed the
committee which would have otherwise
been considered a contribution under
the Act in violation of 11 CFR part 110;
(3) It does not appear from evidence
available that a contribution in violation
of 11 CFR parts 110 and 114 will result.
Trying to equate an administrative termination with a failure to disclose is
A) A deliberate lie
or
B) An act of incredible ignorance
There are no entries in the Enforcement Query System related to Bill Brady
Cross posted at Illinoize
And We Have the Second Part of the Screed
It’s hysterical, just hysterical.
You should go read it all as they say, but this stuck out
Grow up Bill
We obviously don?t mind some rough-and-tumble in a campaign. As they say, politics ain?t bean-bag ? especially in Illinois. We?re obviously tough in this publication on our elected officials ? because they work for all of us. But you also don?t see us out there preaching this hypocritical 11th Commandment stuff.
What?s truly annoying is the wimpy, hypocritical game Brady?s been playing. Isn?t everyone sick and tired of the preaching about the sins of being negative and ?attacking other Republicans? ? only to have Brady turn around sometimes just minutes later and be one of the nastiest guys out there?
If we wanted a pretty-boy weasel for Governor ? we could just keep the one we?ve got.
Brady has constantly tried to smear Oberweis as a ?flip-flopper.? But meanwhile this Brady guy goes back-and-forth from ?good cop? to ?bad cop? like a tennis ball.
This has been a common theme in this campaign. Topinka, Sell-Out Joe Birkett, Andy McKenna, Jr., and Jim Edgar have also been playing the same cynical game all year ? ?let me read you the 11th Commandment – while I shove this knife in your back.?
Brady can deny that he?s a spoiler and in cahoots with Topinka all he wants. It?s just funny how Brady?s using Topinka?s play-book.
Brady, Topinka and Sell-Out Joe are all the same kind of dishonest hypocrites. They all recoil and get nasty at the thought of any honest debate over what they?ve done while on a public payroll.
But they have no problem just making things up about Jim Oberweis.
What’s the Strategery?
I’m pretty sure it won’t work, but I think I have some idea of what Oberweis is doing–first, for his hardcore supporters, he’s revving them up with red meat to get them to the polls. The Train Wreck piece plays into that well.
He’s going to be at the top of all news stories with the wackiness and that reinforces to them that he’s the guy who is the alternative to Topinka. He also gets the last minute name recognition for the undecideds who would have broken for Topinka well before this if they were.
Finally, if, as I guess, his base is the most angry and the most motivated, turning this into an ugly slugfest is most likely to depress Topinka’s vote.
The problem is on two sides, everyone really hates the guy now so for the general and turning this nasty depresses his own turnout some too.
My take right now, Judy is the likely winner, but I’d give Oberweis about a 35% chance of an upset.
Please, Please Let this Man Stick Around After Tuesday
Oberweis and Weigand appear to be upping their level of craziness by the hour. In an aptly titled post, Rich describes the new Oberweis bizarreness.
The Blagojevich campaign is considering it’s super secret plan to kidnap him and hide him until Tuesday evening to try and stem the damage.
“It just shows the kind of innovative free-market thinking Jim brings in,” Wiegand said
Yeah, except game theory tells us that if you are actually facing two rational individuals, there is no way they’ll enter into such a contract. Now, if you are facing mildly retarded individuals who can’t do odds, you might have a decent proposal, but we actually try and attempt to stop the market from taking advantage of people in such ways. The point of the market is to give people freedom to choose, but to do that effectively they must have adequate information and ability to reason. The proposal is quite telling about how Oberweis views the market.
I thought Pat O’Malley was about as bitter as they come in 2002. I was wrong.
Help ‘Em Out
John Sullivan, Debra Shore, and Forrest Claypool need your help–find the details over at Illinois DemNet or their own web sites….
I’ll be doing endorsements over the weekend and covering whatever else Oberweis can screw up.
A Very Fair Column, Stroger Needs to Release His Medical Records
Lynn Sweet argues he should release his records to demonstrate whether he can actually serve or not.
Let me add, given this news, so does Lane Evans. I thought it was a cheap shot to go after his health as long as he was making meetings and votes. If he is starting to miss them, he should allow the voters to judge. Most likely, it is time to step down–if he does it now, the Party can choose a candidate to run in his place. While not ideal, it isn’t exactly a Lipinski switch either.
Claypool Rejoinder
One of the big questions on any poll is what the likely voter model is. In essence to get a fair idea of who is likely to vote you screen respondents for their past behavior, interest in the election, and even self-report likelihood in some cases. Claypool sent out a rejoinder to the Trib poll stating:
For those who work closely with election stats, the poll published in this morning?s Chicago Tribune raises more questions than it answers. But, when you put it together with our own tracking data from this past week, it begins to paint a picture of how Forrest will win this race.
Our poll, a more extensive and in-depth survey of those who actually have a history of primary voting, shows Forrest just one point ahead of John Stroger. And, among the subset of voters who say they?re ?paying close attention to the race,? and are likely to vote on Tuesday, he enjoys a 7 point lead. With a sample of 700 voters conducted by the Bennenson Strategy Group, we feel very confident in these numbers.
When we re-weight the Tribune poll to more accurately reflect the turnout numbers from past primary elections, the newspaper?s numbers come out looking a lot like ours:
46 Stroger/40 Claypool (with a 5% margin of error).
Meanwhile, what do we make of the newest voice to weigh in on the race, that of former President Bill Clinton? Clearly, President Clinton is repaying an old political debt with his radio ad for John Stroger. And as someone who doesn’t live in Cook County or pay taxes here, he couldn’t be expected to know the facts of Stroger’s record.
Ultimately, it?s the people of Cook County who will decide this election. And Forrest has the support of those who care about improving health care for our neediest residents, about stopping the beating of young men and women at the Juvenile Detention Center, who care about the ever-rising tax bills that burden working folks throughout Cook County.
With one week to go, we are more confident than ever that Forrest will prevail, winning the opportunity to fix what?s wrong with Cook County.
Obviously, I’m biased, but without examining the entire poll I cannot and wouldn’t vouch for the above without seeing the full polling results. It’s not implausible, but it’s also highly dependent upon how strong and successful the GOTV effort for Stroger is–if SEIU and Madigan are working hard for him, he’s likely to get a good turnout. If not, it’s hard to imagine that John Stroger has the sort of passionate following to bring out voters not dependent upon his position without help.
This year’s election seems especially dependent upon turnout. That’s a cliche in talking about elections, but there doesn’t appear to be a strong sense of voter excitement about this years primary election. If there are two groups excited, it’s probably Democrats at the left end of the Party and Republicans at the Right end of their Party. For the Republicans that means an advantage for Oberweis, for Democrats I sense that might help Claypool with white liberal voters, but it’s hard to tell. The biggest benefactor of such a turnout would likely be Giannoulis in the Dem Treasurer race (I have no real horse in that race).