Halvorson and Foster Probably Going Down
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Seals is really close, but still down and I don’t know where the votes are.
Illinois likely to lose 3 Dems–may regain 1. May.
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Kirk up 13,000 For General Alexi up 7,000 in Special
Because nothing can be made clear tonight.
Hoffman within 2% with 2/3 reporting
As I recall from past years, the D areas report late–he might pull this out.
Phil Hare is probably going down
It’s a weird district so it’s still possible it will switch, but Hare is down 54-42 with 62 percent in. That’s truly a shame. Other races aren’t clear yet, but I think that one’s done.
I Think Think The Illinois House Stays Democratic
Two bellweather seats in Karen May and Daniel Biss seem to be going okay with Daniel and her pulling away. I think that will be enough to hold the chamber.
The problem is if the downstate numbers fall out of the bottom because of Quinn’s poor performance we could lose some unexpected races down there.
Latino Vote Heavily Democratic
Latino vote for Governor
Patrick Quinn: 83%
Bill Brady: 13%
Latino share of voters: 6%
Latino contribution to Quinn: +4.2
Latino vote for Senate
Alexi Giannoulias: 84%
Mark Kirk: 15%
Latino share of voters: 6%
Latino contribution to Giannoulias: +4.1
If the Dems win, that’s the difference, though so are one hundred other factors given the closeness.
The early numbers are looking good–better than I expected for Governor and Senator.
What’s interesting about the above, Brady and Kirk are not extreme right wingers on immigration. In Brady’s case, it’s really his one moderate position so these results are interesting.
Hacking Cough of Death
The children brought home some plague and I’ve been recovering. Almost back to normal today and will be posting later.
It’s going to be a bad day–the only question is how bad and I honestly cannot tell with all of the weird polling problems this year. So go out, vote and get your lazy friends off their asses.
Bush Lied
So says Mark Kirk about the justification for the Iraq War.
First—irony concerning being lied to noted.
Second, the base cannot be happy about that.
CHICAGO (AP) – Republican Mark Kirk says the Bush administration lied to him about the evidence for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
Kirk voted to invade Iraq and said he was morally certain Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction.
But in a debate Wednesday, the U.S. Senate candidate said he was given false information in a briefing by the deputy director of the Central Intelligence Agency under President George W. Bush.
Kirk says he “absolutely” believes he was lied to.
Third, irony regarding a guy running on his intelligence credentials is noted.
Senator Brady doesn’t believe in equality for women and would rather LGBT people not exist
Well, that was inappropriate. Ricky Hendon being inappropriate isn’t news though Quinn should have apologized for them since Hendon was speaking on behalf of him–nice advance work there gang!
I had to read it a couple times before I got the full problem with it. At first, I simply read it as typical fodder about Brady not being good on issues of equity and fairness, but the whole would rather LGBT people not exist takes it a lot further once I thought about it and the equality issue would be a flub, but not as serious alone.
There are actually candidates we have around who do argue that women shouldn’t be equal. and everyone seems to ignore that, but Brady has never said anything like that which I’ve heard and if you can get him past platitudes about marriage equality he simply starts mumbling. There’s a reason for this. He doesn’t think any deeper than that. The man is not intellectual which isn’t unusual in a politician, but he goes a step further and is just dumb. He’s good with people and he can campaign hard, but he’s dumb. He doesn’t think that deeply about women’s issues to be against equality. He’s just against the gummint getting in his business and is icked out by Teh Gay. But he doesn’t wish they don’t exist–he doesn’t think about it enough to make a difference to him.
Bill Brady doesn’t have some evil plot he wants to unleash on the State of Illinois. That would take a lot of initiative and he’s never shown any in his legislative career except to climb the ladder–even if it was while one beloved Senator was recuperating from a stroke.
He’ll do bad things as Governor, but only because he sees everything in very simple terms and doesn’t dwell on any solutions besides making broad platitudes and then go and be personable. He’s not Kirk Dillard who might do things I’d disagree with, but make a coherent value based argument about why and be honest about the downside.
If Brady becomes Governor, I already have his theme picked out for four years: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
Don’t Mess With Rand’s Beautiful Mind
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=viFUGufE1M8[/youtube]
This splices two videos together from the event in Kentucky where a MoveOn Activist was tacked and had her head stomped.
Being a campaign volunteer doesn’t mean you can be a thug because you don’t want your beautiful candidate spoiled by free speech. Flashing a sign in the face of a candidate for office isn’t a crime. Trying to take an embarrassing picture of a candidate with a sign isn’t a crime. Unless the Rand Paul faces death from a paper cut there was no justification for anyone putting hands on this woman. You can act as a barrier or such or perhaps the best ides would be to set up a more controlled entrance area. But Rand Paul not wanting his beautiful mind to be spoiled by pesky free speech isn’t a reason to put your hands on a woman and that includes the goofus who is in a suit and runs over at the very beginning.
If there is some fear of a threat then there are these people we call the police who can do crowd control for a candidate, but clearly that wasn’t thought necessary.
I’ve been to tea party events and had more aggressive behavior with signs towards me in my face, but my reaction was to smile and greet them. Cardboard signs aren’t weapons. What’s most bizarre is the Rand Paul supporters seemed to think they needed to have her arrested. Seriously.