Presidential Race

The Bush-Hitler commercial

ArchPundit June 28, 2004 3 Comments

I’m not sure I get the Bush Commercial

This reminds me of a critical story NBC did on Ronald Reagan. They showed pictures of him in all these different places and then compared his record to his rhetoric. It was quite damning. They then asked Deaver or someone to respond and the person loved it–great pictures. Nobody would remember the text. If I watch this commercial, I don’t necessarily get a negative image of Kerry, I get a lot of damning claims about the President. What am I going to remember?

It seems to me that this is the reverse story where the content hurts more than it helps. Via Rick Klau.

Leader Lawsuit Watch Day 1

ArchPundit June 25, 2004 7 Comments

Since the Leader is going to sue for the release of John Kerry’s divorce records I think the process should be watched to see how it turns out. So today, we’ll just start with Leader plans to sue for Kerry’s divorce documents.

White House Ban on Seeing Farenheit 9/11

ArchPundit June 24, 2004 1 Comment

Steve at Absit Invidia covers what appears to be a ban on White House personnel from seeing the movie. If that is what the White House is most worried about….we need a new set of priorities.

Even more strangely, there is a move to get the FEC to declare TV commercials as violations of FEC law. I suppose the law could encompass such ads, but wow would that be an ironic twist on campaign finance reform. And I kind of doubt it.

[CAMPBELL] BROWN: Real quick?we?re almost out of time?but how?how?given how the Bush administration is reacting to the 9/11 film, which is, you know, banning their staffs from going to see it or anybody…
[CHRISTOPHER] HITCHENS: What?

BROWN: I know. Is it the right approach?

HITCHENS: I didn?t know that.

But, if so, then it would be something to add to my long list of misgivings about the Bush administration.

Uh, yeah.

Presidential Poll

ArchPundit June 10, 2004 3 Comments

Not much different from the others, Survey USA reports:

Kerry (D) 52%
Bush (R) 39%
Other/Undecided 8%

Data Collected 6/7/04 – 6/9/04
Geography State of Illinois
Sample Population 742 Likely Voters
Margin of Error 3.7%
Client
WBBM-TV Chicago
KSDK-TV St. Louis

Libertarian’s Choose Badnarik

ArchPundit June 1, 2004 1 Comment

Going to Jeff again, the Libertarians chose Michael Badnarik, and Jeff has the scoop.

I’d Rather Have Monica Back

ArchPundit June 1, 2004 1 Comment

The President is apparently showing off the pistol Saddam was caught with.

That’s just weird.

Trib Poll: Presidential

ArchPundit June 1, 2004 No Comments

Let’s Review the Previous Polls

From the Hotline Archives.
ILLINOIS
Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV
A Market Shares Corp. poll; conducted 2/11-14/04 for the Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV; surveyed 600 registered voters in Illinois; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 2/22).

General election matchups:

All
Kerry 52%
Bush 38
Undecided 10

A Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. poll; conducted 3/1-3/04 for Copley; surveyed 625 registered voters in Illinois; margin of error +/- 4% (Copley, 3/14).

General election matchup:

Kerry 47%
Bush 39
Nader 2
Undecided 12

Research 2000
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 3/1-3/04 for WEEK-TV and the Bloomington Pantagraph; surveyed 600 likely voters in Illinois; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 3/5).

General election matchup:

All
Kerry 54%
Bush 36
Nader 1
Undecided 9

Harstad for Obama
Kerry 51
Bush 37

Southtown Poll
Kerry 46
Bush 41
Nader 8

Kerry 48
Bush 43

And from Sunday’s Trib….

Kerry 54%
Bush 38

with Nader (assuming he qualifies)
Kerry 53
Bush 37
Nader 4

Approval/Disapproval
37 52

Hard to imagine any worse numbers for an incumbent. For those wacky conservatives at the Leader, you ought to be encouraging the President to stay away except for fundraising–the Presidential election in Illinois is over. Hell even the Blagorgeous has at least more favorables than negatives.

Bush has broken 40 in one poll so far. Now, he’ll break forty in the General, but that is a very poor sign for an incumbent–of course, having below a 50% approval rating is bad for an incumbent and he has a 52% DISAPPROVAL rating.

Defining Kerry

ArchPundit May 28, 2004 No Comments

Political Wire has a really interesting post up on how many people are still unfamiliar/undecided with Kerry.

This simple fact has set the strategies for the campaign. To attract on-the-fence voters, Kerry is expanding the use of biographical ads to introduce himself, while President Bush is running negative ads to try to define his opponent first.

In many ways, the presidential race mirrors the 1980 campaign when incumbent Jimmy Carter faced declining approval rates yet the public was unsure of Ronald Reagan, a candidate viewed by many on the ideological fringes of his own party. Reagan’s challenge then — to make himself more appealing to the average voter — is the same as Kerry’s today.

New Field Director for Kerry In Illinois

ArchPundit May 28, 2004 No Comments

Daniel from Evanston from Kerry sends me a note that Avis LaVelle has been named the new Illinois Field Director Details over there.

I need to get him on the blogroll too!

Presidential Poll

ArchPundit May 17, 2004 2 Comments

Daily Southtown:
Kerry 46
Bush 41
Nader 8

Kerry 48
Bush 43

Bush is hovering around 40 and Kerry is lower than in other polls, but given he is currently a non-entity in Illinois, that shouldn’t be surprising. Given Nader may not make the race, its hard to imagine this will even be a race.

The mistake in the article is the discussion of the effect of advertising-very little of it is even in Illinois.