Illinois Senate

ICFST Going Nuclear

Sweet.

Rich Miller reports:

POLLS (excerpt)* Meanwhile, there is a ton of chatter in the system right now about the Republican (US Senate) race. Brace yourselves, folks. If you thought the Dem primary was a sordid little affair, the Republicans appear to be almost ready to pull out the nukes.

Any ideas out there?

UPDATE: For the new Readers ICFST==Illinois Circular Firing Squad Team==Illinois Republican Party. This is due to the civil war currently being fought between social conservatives and the traditional power brokers. It’s good fun to watch.

Survey USA Senate Poll

Via Eric Zorn’s Notebook

The most recent poll is up from Survey USA.

Democrats
Obama 44%
Hull 20%
Hynes 18%
Pappas 7%
Chico 6%
Other/Undecided 5%

Data Collected
3/6/04 – 3/8/04

Geography
State of Illinois
Sample Population
776 Certain Voters
Margin of Error 3.6%
Client WBBM-TV Chicago

Republicans
Ryan 37%
Oberweis 23%
McKenna 14%
Rauschenberger 11%
Borling 4%
Other/Undecided 10%

Data Collected
3/6/04 – 3/8/04
Geography
State of Illinois
Sample Population
402 Certain Voters
Margin of Error 5.0%
Client
WBBM-TV Chicago

A couple things to notice–Survey USA is using Certain Voters which should be above Likely Voters. The formula and method to determine this is proprietary and so this is often why polls differ between outfits. The other thing is SurveyUSA uses computer automated calls and we are not yet certain what kind of bias that might introduce into the results. While their results are getting steadily better over time, we just don’t have the information to appropriately analyze how valid and reliable they are. That said, the results are in line with other polls.

What we might be able to deduce is that Hynes really needs a good ground operation because he is relatively low in the poll for certain voters and so his voters are perhaps less likely to vote. But amongst certain voters, Obama is in very good shape.

On the Republican side, Jack!’s support is clearly not as deep, but Rauschenberger does pop up. Not surprising given certain voters are more likely to be politically engaged and thus be familiar with him despite his absence from the airwaves.

The Present Votes

In a rejoinder to the defense of the present votes by Obama on pro-choice votes, one reader points out that some of those votes were done to provide cover for future statewide ambitions of some Dems. And thus, the story is more complex and Obama’s votes weren’t so pure.

My rejoinder to the rejoinder is if Obama was being protected by pro-choice groups wouldn’t he be soft-pedaling his stance on late term abortions? He isn’t when he specifically criticizes the recently passed bill. And more importantly, tactics matter in the US Senate more than probably any other legislative body in the democratic world.

Update: For those visiting from Eric Zorn’s Notebook, here is an earlier post that describes another Springfield Legislative tactic.

From the Peanut Gallery: Jim Oberweis for US Senate

First submission for the satirical endorsements. By That Colored Fella

In one of President George W. Bush?s inspiring new TV ads, he speaks plainly of the enduring entrepreneurial spirit of America. The results of which have sparked and fueled an economic recovery (confirmed by the infallible Vice-President Dick Cheney) that has created Illinois jobs for those who want and are eligible, to work.

Jim Oberweis embodies that entrepreneurial spirit!

His continued success as a small business owner, rewarding life as a family man and concern for his community and nation, is what drives him to seek higher office. A principled Republican, he believes deeply in the core tenants of his party: limited government, responsible fiscal policy and opportunity for all! Jim Oberweis has seen first-hand how Hillary Clinton and the Liberal elite have weakened our country, overtaxed the business sector and opened our borders, to advance their immoral vision.
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