Illinois Senate
ArchPundit
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Republican Senate Nomination Cattle Call 3-15
1. Ryan. But hanging on the skin of his teeth. Being the frontrunner means everyone guns for you. Shouldn’t have sent a negative mailing about Oberweis–he wasn’t going anywhere. Instead provide a positive message. If he loses, he’ll blame the whispering, but the reality will be he slung too much mud while Rauschenberger snuck up.
2. Rauschenberger. Bloggers are largely united that he’ll do better. One, generally Steve is likable and honest so we want him to do better. Two, he is likable and honest and the voters like him. 3. He’s been able to stay out of the mud and no one is touching him meaning he doesn’t get hit with negative mailers. While everyone else is torn down, Steve is riding good media.
3. Oberweis. Won’t move up tomorrow because too many negative ads. If Ryan goes down, he and Borling are the reason. Oberweis just kept whacking at Ryan until it started to stick.
4. McKenna. Playing some hardball, but no compelling reason to run.
5. Borling. Pick up some last minute pro-choice votes amongst Republican women in the burbs, but not much.
6. Wright. Steady, but boring. As this is the last Cattle Call, thank goodness, I was running out of material.
7. Kathuria. Resume to include stints at a major Paper company, furniture store owner, and successful litigant in suing major daily papers.
Democratic Senate Nomination Cattle Call 3-15
1. Obama. Everything is breaking his way.
2. Hull. I’m guessing here, but I’m going to put his GOTV operation as a lot better than we expect.
3. Hynes. Good showing, but wrong election. Machine will turn out votes, but a very good candidate never provided a compelling reason for people to vote for him.
4. Pappas. Shut out of the race by money and everytime she got into the free media, something came up to take attention away.
5. Chico. Odd candidate out.
6. Skinner. Really, the new radio network is a perfect gig for you.
7. Washington. The great thing about victory parties, when you get destroyed you can drink all night.
Corrected: SurveyUSA Poll Conducted 3/14
Illinois Leader had a post indicating a new poll. It looks like SurveyUSA has one up with
Republicans
Ryan – 33%
Oberweis – 24%
Rauschenberger – 21%
McKenna – 13%
Borling – 2%
Other – 4%
Undecided – 3 %
Democrats
Obama – 50%
Hynes – 20%
Hull – 16%
Pappas – 7%
Chico – 4%
Other – 3%
Undecided – 1%
MOE and details in the link.
My Senate Predictions
Democrats
Obama 39%
Hull 24%
Hynes 22%
Pappas 8%
Chico 5%
Skinnner 1%
Washington 1%
Republicans
Ryan 32%
Rauschenberger 26%
Oberweis 19%
McKenna 13%
Borling 6%
Wright 2%
Kathuria 1%
Hill 1%
Voter turnout 32%
Corrected because I forgot Hill.
Final Democratic Newspaper Endorsements
Obama
Champaign News Gazette
Chicago Defender
Chicago Tribune
Chicago Sun-Times
Daily Herald
Peoria Journal-Star
Pioner Press
Rockford Register Star
Saint Louis Post-Dispatch
The Star Newspapers
UC Maroon
Hynes
Bloomington Pantagraph
Daily Southtown
Joliet Herald News
Moline Dispatch
Near West Gazette (not online)
Quad-Cities Dispatch-Argus
Waukegan News Sun
Chico
Final Republican Newspaper Endorsements
Rauschenberger
Aurora Beacon News
Bloomington Pantagraph
Champaign News Gazette (off-line)
Courier News
Chicago Tribune
Daily Herald
Joliet Herald News
Peoria Journal Star
John Kass
Pioneer Press
Rockford Register Star
Saint Louis Post-Dispatch
The Star Newspapers
Ryan
Chicago Sun-Times
Daily Southtown
Kathuria
Chicago Defender
Cattle Call Comment Period 3-15
Just one today, drop in anything happening around the state. Radio and mailers should be big today. Otherwise it is just a bunch of campaigns showing the colors to excite their voters.
Reader Contest: Predict the Results
So I’m going to use the same rules as Eric Zorn is going to use for bloggers:
Post your election predictions comments or send me an e-mail at archpundit@yahoo.com SUBJECT: Predictions
HOW TO PLAY: Predict the percentage, to the nearest whole number, that all 15 candidates in Republican and Democratic primaries will receive. Please list the candidates by party and in order of finish. For a tie-breaker, also predict the voter turnout in Illinois.
SCORING: You will lose one point for each percentage point by which you miss the actual percentage of the vote won by the candidate (for example, if you predict John Borling will get 3 percent and he gets 5 percent, you will lost two points). Failure to predict the correct winner will cost you an additional 15 points.
ELIGIBILITY: Read ArchPundit and not a blogger in the Eric Zorn Contest.
HOW TO ENTER: E-mail me or post in comments your predictions by midnight Monday, March 15th central time.
Prize: A giant no prize! But you get bragging rights.