Illinois Senate

Errr. You can’t Tape Public Officials?

ArchPundit May 27, 2004 No Comments

Nice way to keep the story in the news Alderman Burke, but there is this teensy thing called the First Amendment. Banning taping of public figures especially would be a pretty clear violation.

“My suspicion is that, for the ordinary person, if they’re dealing with someone who is being harassing in some way, they probably can get a restraining order of some sort.

“Whether public figures have those same protections is not clear to me.”

But “the nice thing about our society is that not all problems have to be solved by laws,” Obama said.

“A lot of times, public opinion is sufficient.”

And again, Obama is the reasonable one.

An Interesting Take on the Ryan Campaign

ArchPundit May 25, 2004 1 Comment

Fran Eaton thinks . they are more insular than the Fitzgerald Campaign in 1998

Too bad they aren’t running against Carol Moseley Braun.

Prolonging the News Cycle

ArchPundit May 25, 2004 1 Comment

Ummmm…Watson criticized the taping before the Ryan campaign apologized and told Warfel to cool it.

If, say, the Leader wants to elect Jack Ryan, they might get on message–lord knows Ryan can’t. Or they can prolong the sideshow and maybe alienate some Republican leaders who they need to turn out every last vote. Given Proft is associated with the campaign and the Leader, I think Topinka and Watson might take this editorial as a bit more than just carping.

Just In Case…

ArchPundit May 18, 2004 1 Comment

I’m wrong and the poll from the Southtown is capturing some dynamic–donate at the right to Barack Obama!

UPDATE: Errr–actually the link is down with the new site–so go to the site and hit the contribute button.

UPDATE 2: Link Fixed. Click Away!

Finally, Some Good News for Jack Ryan

ArchPundit May 18, 2004 No Comments

Daily Southtown Poll

Obama 48
Ryan 40
+/- 4.5
Sample Size 500
Automated phone call poll
95% confidence interval

The strangest finding in the poll is this:

Overall, 51 percent of respondents said they had a “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” opinion of Ryan, compared with 48 percent for Obama. But a higher percentage ? 26 percent to 18 percent ? gave Obama a “very favorable” rating.

I find this suspicious because I don’t think people know who Jack Ryan is yet and without significant campaigning this is different from other polls.

Essentially this poll means that Ryan has caught up to Bush who he was behind by about 7-8 percentage points in previous polls. I still don’t see how that results in a win for either of them, but Ryan has at least gotten the core supporters to back him if this poll is accurate.

Like Hell I Got What I Wanted

ArchPundit May 17, 2004 No Comments

I wanted to comment on McCarron’s piece from a couple weeks ago that suggests Liberals Got What They Wanted.

This liberal (generally) wanted Vallas because he would have dealt with long term structural problems unlike Blagorgeous running the damn state by press conference.

He’s also wrong on this:

Other progressives, perhaps despaired of reform at the state level, have absorbed themselves in the U.S. Senate campaign of Democrat Barack Obama. And why not? He looks like a winner and a highly principled man. Too bad he isn’t running for governor. He’d do more good here than in Washington, where he’ll be a back-bencher in the GOP-run gentlemen’s club that is the U.S. Senate.

All evidence points to a guy who can put together tough compromises like the taping of defendants in capital cases. The Senate is a small club and he’ll make quick headway–so go to the right and help him out!

White is Black

ArchPundit May 17, 2004 No Comments

Joining the Holy War against gay marriage is Kevin McCullough who says:

Check Obama?s own campaign literature. The State Senator was a co-sponsor of Senate Bill 101. Defeated for years by narrow margins in Springfield the State Senator is proud to have associated himself with a bill that mandates discrimination on the simple basis of chosen sexual behavior.

For those playing at home, SB 101 would make sexual orientation a suspect classification meaning taking it into account in employment would face a high legal barrier. How that is mandating discrimination is beyond those who understand the English language.

The rest is an attack on Obama’s position on gay marriages, but fails to mention that Obama is against gay marriage and for civil unions with the same rights. While I’m for the same rights, I understand the political tightrope he is playing on. So let’s be clear here, Obama is for civil unions that have the same rights under law as marriage, but doesn’t want to call them marriage because he sees that as a religious sacrament.

For those wondering why African-Americans, who consistently poll as more socially conservative than other groups, continue to vote for the more liberal social party, you might notice that the Republican Party also has another set of issues that poll poorly amongst African-Americans–racial issues. There is a way to reach out to African-Americans and it is the issues that matter most to them. I think both parties would be better off and African-Americans would be better off with more competition for their votes. However, we aren’t at that point yet.

Of politicians making serious efforts, I can only think of Jim Talent (R-MO) who spends significant time talking to African-Americans in their communities. He has monthly meetings with small business owners who are African-American. While results are not so big so far, a sustained effort like that is more likely to work than demagoguing on gay marriage.

After all, something the supposedly small government party might want to remember is–don’t like Gay Marriage? Don’t perform one, don’t have one, and it isn’t your problem.

The Dean Dozen

ArchPundit May 13, 2004 4 Comments

Democracy for America just endorsed its first 12 candidates it is endorsing. While the organization is picking out hundreds of races in the longer term, these first 12 are special and seem to be a special breed of grass roots activism.

The Illinois news is that Barack Obama got the nod. After an astonishing election that no one predicted the margin of victory, that shouldn’t be surprising. He is one of the most amazing politicians I’ve ever seen. Despite being from a state known for insider politics, he has run a campaign of grass roots excitement.

But I have a special reason to be excited.

In a strange twist, a woman down the block from me is one of the 12 and is running for my State Rep. I have yet to meet her, but everyone seems to think she is impressive.

Maria Chappelle-Nadal for Missouri State House. Maria has won the support of the grassroots in this race. Democracy for America is behind her in her campaign to take back the State House for Democrats. www.maria2004.com

But I’m still holding back on you about why I’m so excited. As I made impassioned pleas at the end of last quarter, several of you met the call to donate to Jeff Smith’s campaign. That helped him match fundraising with a longtime conservative state legislator, and Russ Carnahan–a man who has had millions spent on his name here in Missouri the last few years. I thank you for that. Jeff is positioned to be one of the three to come out of that race.

Jeff is a close personal friend and pretty much if I could build a Congressional Candidate from scratch, he would be it. Smart, principled, funny and dedicated to social justice while fiscally responsible all describe Jeff.

Jeff and I aren’t the typical political science grad students. First, Jeff can’t do hard math. But that is a different story. Second, we care passionately about the actual communities we live in and have stayed in grad school longer largely due to our concern and commitments. We sit around and talk about Congressional Districts while many of our colleagues talk about regressions. Okay, I’m a geek and do both.

At the American Political Science Association meetings in 2002, Jeff went while I was busy preparing for the twins. He met a Governor running for President we both had a great deal of respect for who was talking to academics. He seemed a bit of a wildcard–fiscally responsible and not too exciting he was definitely my kind of guy. My first reaction was why the hell would a serious candidate bother with academics. Apparently Governor Dean made the same joke to Jeff. Jeff and him talked over the 2002 and 2003 and we both marvelled at how he was the only one taking the fight to the Bush. Being in Gephardt territory, we were sort of lonely though Jeff had worked in Iowa before and was considering what to do next. Go back to Iowa and work for someone or finish his dissertation.

Then Gephardt announced he woudn’t seek reelection, but this wasn’t too big of a deal. Several established progressives were considering the race and Jeff went over the demographics with them. When none entered, he decided that the race was too important to pass up and got in himself.

Much like a Governor from a small state without a lot of press, everyone wondered what the hell this guy was doing. Now, everyone is wondering how he is doing it. While he has a ways to go before the primary, no one is dismissing him anymore. He has won grassroots endorsements over bigger names in trench warfare. Carnahan did everything he could to beat Jeff for the state’s largest township organization and still came up short.

Jeff isn’t likely to flame out–in fact, he can only improve at this point. This is the good fight and I’m happy to have a front row seat.

Thank you Democracy for America and thank you Governor Dean for continuing this fight. Dean isn’t going to be President, but his legacy can still lead to change. And I can think of no one better than Jeff.

Senate Poll

ArchPundit May 11, 2004 No Comments

by Wilson Research Strategies –no clear indication who the survey was for….
Obama 44%
Ryan 28%
Undecided 18%

Both candidates perform well among their party base with Ryan currently receiving 71% of the vote among registered Republicans and Obama taking 79% of Democrats. However, Obama has a commanding lead among Independent voters leading 44% to 15% among those self described as being registered Independent. Obama also leads Ryan among men 41% to 31% and women 46% to 24%.

“Clearly, if Ryan has any hope of making this a competitive race he must do two things, first continue to grow his lead with Republicans and find a way to communicate with Independents,” Adams said. “With 33% of those surveyed self describing as independents, the Independent vote will play a crucial part of any winning coalition and right now Obama is doing a better job of winning their trust.”

MOE +/-4.9%

Dripping into the Summer

ArchPundit May 11, 2004 1 Comment

Jack Ryan’s game of chicken with the California Courts over his custody files looks to be a story for at least another month. The report to the judge is set to be done in 20 days.

And what is the message of the campaign?