Obama 48
Ryan 40
+/- 4.5
Sample Size 500
Automated phone call poll
95% confidence interval
The strangest finding in the poll is this:
Overall, 51 percent of respondents said they had a “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” opinion of Ryan, compared with 48 percent for Obama. But a higher percentage ? 26 percent to 18 percent ? gave Obama a “very favorable” rating.
I find this suspicious because I don’t think people know who Jack Ryan is yet and without significant campaigning this is different from other polls.
Essentially this poll means that Ryan has caught up to Bush who he was behind by about 7-8 percentage points in previous polls. I still don’t see how that results in a win for either of them, but Ryan has at least gotten the core supporters to back him if this poll is accurate.