Illinois Senate

Feces Mailed To Keyes Campaign? Pipe Bomb?

From the Keyes Campaign:

ALAN KEYES FOR SENATE
http://www.KeyesForSenate.com/
Dear XXX:
ALERT: The Keyes for Senate campaign is UNDER ATTACK.

After Alan’s tremendous three debate wins in the Illinois U.S. Senate race — first, it was the letters.

Hate mail. Letters full of some of the most vile, despicable, vitriolic profanity you could possibly imagine. The workers in our donation processing center practically had to wade through the rush of filth that came pouring in.

But that was only the beginning.

This week, the filth literally DID come in — someone mailed HUMAN WASTE to the donation center.

This is the kind of disgusting behavior we’ve come to expect from the radical left and the enemies of the kind of traditional American values Alan Keyes stands strong for.

But that “package” didn’t shut us down. Our workers disposed of the excrement, and got back to work processing the thousands of donations and letters of strong support coming in from all over America.

Today was different. Today, we WERE shut down.

Today, our donation processing center received a package in the mail. Our people were immediately suspicious — they had been trained in what to look for…

… And this package fit the description.

It looked like we had a pipe-bomb.

The police were immediately called in. They examined the package and called the FBI, the ATF and the bomb squad right away. The entire building was evacuated.

After putting up a police cordon, x-rays, scanning, and carefully getting the package open… it turned out to be a railroad spike with a hate letter.

Do you see what we’re up against? The kind of people we have to stand up to as we fight for the truth, and work to defend everything right and decent?

Today, it might not have been an actual bomb… but it had its intended effect. On our biggest donation day Keyes 2004 has seen in our processing center, we had to SHUT DOWN.

My friend, there’s only FOUR CRITICAL DAYS left before election day comes. We lost an ENTIRE DAY — 25% of our time — because of this threatening bomb scare.

We NEED to make that day up, quickly. Can you help out RIGHT

NOW with an online donation?

https://secure.cartlight.com/merchant/keyes/donation.php?afid=lyris

When you give online, we can put those funds to work RIGHT AWAY. And we definitely NEED those funds — radio and television ads are going up all over the state AS I WRITE.

We need to intensify the scope of our ad buy. We are getting a “great bang for the buck” on all we are doing with media, but this part of the campaign is very expensive.

If you don’t like giving over the Internet, call Campaign HQ in Chicago, toll-free at 1-866-578-8600 and our volunteers will take your contribution information right over the phone.

Or we can still receive your donation by check. We’ve implemented even greater security measures at our processing center — and our workers are going at it stronger than ever!

To give by mail, send your check to:

Keyes 2004, Inc.
P.O. Box 2004
Dept. Code lyris
Springfield, IL 62705-2004

Don’t let these hate-filled radicals, who are willing to go to such extremes to stop us, have their way. We MUST press on to victory. May God bless you.

(Under FEC law, the maximum legal contribution per election
is $2,000 per person. Individuals may give $2,000 each to the
primary and general elections. Couples may give up to $4,000
from common funds for the primary and general elections, but
both signatures must be on the account. Contributions to
Keyes 2004 are not considered deductible for federal income
tax purposes. No corporate funds are accepted.)

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_____________________________________________________

If true, that’s horrible and of course everyone is horrified by it. As we might be if it isn’t entirely true.

I’m not Sure What Capitol Fax said about this, but

From the Fax website yesterday:

Just saw Barack Obama’s new TV ad that will debut tomorrow. It’s a testimonial ad showing brief “person on the street” interviews of what people think of Obama. Very well done.

The Republicans contend that black voters and other Democrats won’t turn out heavily for Obama because they know he’s so far ahead. This ad is designed to reverse that. More about this topic in tomorrow’s Capitol Fax.

That’s wishful thinking. First, Axelrod and team aren’t going to let that happen, but voters love to be a part of a big win. People don’t like to show up to vote for someone who is going to lose badly and who isn’t terribly compelling (Keyes). They love to show up and be a part of a big win. It makes them feel like a part of it.

Right now the Republicans in Illinois know Bush is going to lose and their Senate Candidate is a stark, raving, lunatic which only has one poll even showing him with a majority of Republican voters support. All of a sudden, marginal Republican voters are finding that the car needs washing awfully badly, and damn, they just didn’t make it to the poll.

I still haven’t seen the ad, but it’s supposed to be good. Given the others have been freaking masterpieces I don’t doubt it. Minimalism is often the best strategy.

Abortion Threatens to Reduce the Number of African-Americans

Well, no. Not really. The genius that is Alan Keyes doesn’t understand birth statistics.

African-American birth rates are much higher than white non-hispanic birth rates. In 2000 the rate for white/non-hispanic, there were 58.5 births per 1000 women

In 2000 there were 71.4 births for every 1000 women.

In the population as a whole: 65.9 births for every 1000 women.

IOW, Alan doesn’t get it . Again. African-American pregnacy rates are quite high–that’s largely a factor of socio-economic status with higher SES leading to lower rates of pregnancy, and lower rates of abortion. If you want to reduce abortion rates, one way to do it is to ensure communities are economically doing well.

Now, a consistent person with Keyes position would be railing against the number of fetal losses as well which is higher than for whites. But Keyes wouldn’t notice because he looks at the percentage of total births in his stat–not the number per 1000 women of a category.

It’s just an incredibly stupid mistake to make. Just because there is a terribly high rate of abortion in the African-American community, doesn’t mean that per woman, there aren’t more children being born. It’s basic math, and Alan Keyes flunks again.

Abortion is a tough issue for many people, but it doesn’t help to have people like Keyes spouting about it and not having the first clue as to what he is saying.

Post-Dispatch Senate Poll

Post-Dispatch shows a 42 point spread.

Obama 67%
Keyes 25%
Undecided 8%

The Research 2000 Illinois Poll was conducted from October 21 through October 23, 2004. A total of 800 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 3.5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the ?true? figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

The only good news for Alan is that he has 62% of Republican voters in the poll which is the first time I’ve seen him above 50% with his own party. And it shows him ahead in the Collar Counties, though I’m not buying that quite yet.

Obama – Keyes Polls

Real Clear Politics has the summary of the polls on the Senate and Presidential race in Illinois.

Since August 6th the entire reported movement including the ABC poll tonight for Obama is from 64 % to 70 %.

Keyes has moved between 28 % and 17 % with, get this, Keyes highest number to date coming before and as he announced on a poll that was done from 8/6 – 8/7. Familiarity has not bred fondness.

Given Keyes’ past behavior it is hard to imagine he’ll beat 25% and may not crack 20% if GOP turnout is depressed.

Normally, I wouldn’t want to rub it in, but the first question a reporter needs to ask him after his historic drubbing is what he thinks of polls now.

I’m sure he’ll rant about how everyone was out to get him, but it should be a fun explosion to watch.

Historical? Probably

I’ve sent this to some folks, but I might as well as let everyone take a look at an Excel file that has all of the two party canidates since 1920, the %, the total votes and the two party votes and percentages. Fun to play with. By most chances, Obama is certain to beat the previous high, though without Franzen or Kohn getting any support, the high for two party vote is a good question. Regardless, nothing at which to sneeze.

Truth Girl indicates that it made it into an Obama e-mail. Frankly, I’m so lost on e-mail right now, I didn’t see it, but see the original post here.

Insider Scoop?

Or just having fun?

From Comments:

Inside Scoop: Watch for Alan Keyes to display his fluency in “Klingon” during the third and final U.S. Senate Debate on WTTW – Ch. 11 tomorrow night in Chicago.

(Yes, Keyes is a Trekkie and yes, he has likely fantasized about Jack Ryan’s ex-wife)

Gentleman, start your other world jokes….