Illinois Senate

What if there is a Senate Vacancy

ArchPundit February 22, 2008 0 Comment

My superstitious side isn’t thrilled with this, but Eric Zorn asks who might replace Obama if he were to become President.

Second, let me throw out a few names of possible replacements for your consideration and analysis: * U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.
* U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky
* U.S. Rep. Rahm Emanuel
* U.S. Rep. Luis Guitierrez
* Ill. Atty. Gen. Lisa Madigan
* Ill. Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias
* Ill. Comptroller Dan Hynes
* Former Ill. Sen. Carol Ronen
* Dan Seals
* Tammy Duckworth
* Ill. Rep. Jay Hoffman (D.-Collinsville)
* Gov. Rod Blagojevich (nothing I see in the law prevents him from appointing himself)

Would he choose to reward an ally? Toss a favor toward a constituent group? Get a potential political rival safely out of the way?

A smart and popular choice would be Lisa Madigan, who’s not only widely seen as a likely challenger to Blagojevich for the 2010 Democratic gubernatorial nomination but also the daughter of his bitter legislative rival, House Speaker Michael Madigan

Jackson would have been a decent guess a couple years ago when Jackson and Blagojevich were cozying up on a set of issues. The problem now is that Jackson would have the double baggage of defending the seat as a Blagojevich supporter and Jesse Jackson Jr which creates a bunch of issues downstate.

Schakowsky would love it and it would burnish Blagojevich’s credit with progressives, but there isn’t a large upside and it’s safe to say that there has to be an upside.

Guitierrez is a horrible fundraiser and seemingly lax campaigner.  It’s hard to imagine he’d want to think about running a Senate campaign in 2010.  And he has Rezko ties which Blagojevich doesn’t want to bring up.

Rahm? My guess is Rahm wants to be Speaker. The Senate wouldn’t be as natural of a fit for him, though he could easily hold the seat.  Again though, I don’t see the upside for Blagojevich.

Dan Seals? He was to win a Congressional seat first.

Blagojevich himself–nah. He wasn’t much in DC and from what I understand it wasn’t his favorite place.

Madigan? It’s hard to say. She seems less likely to get in the Governor’s race–or at least that’s the murmerings so he might take that shot.  It also would be doing a nice thing for Mike Madigan and even if it’s politically motivated, Blagojevich wouldn’t do that.

Hynes? I think in the delusional mind of Rod Blagojevich, Hynes is who he wants to run against in 2010 if he runs again and he sees Hynes as the least threatening.  He’s wrong. While Dan is a bit sedate, he’s a perfect antidote to Blagojevich.

Giannoulis?  A very real possibility. Alexi is a threat and doesn’t have the baggage of the Madigans.   Giannoulis would take it as a big vertical move with little to risk.

Hoffman? I think this might be the choice. Blagojevich is loyal and no one has stuck with him through everything more than Hoffman.  Hoffman is kind of stuck right now as well. He’s been so loyal he is essentially seen as Blagojevich and that’s probably unfair.  The assumption is he wanted to run for AG when it’s open, but with Blagojevich around his neck, that would be hard right now. He’s smart and works hard and as an incumbent he could win in 2010 easily.

Duckworth?  That’s the best choice probably on the list from his point in that it truly would be an appointment of someone who isn’t a crony and would make him look good.  She’s likeable and has a great story.

From that list, I’d put it down as a 1. Hoffman, 2. Duckworth, and 3. Giannoulis as his likely picks (don’t ask me to make a choice, I like all three in different ways).

But I think there are some other names that should be in the mix.

Manny Flores–the Latino pick who would hold that seat and get a whole lot of support for Blagojevich if he ran again.

Blair Hull. See rationale for Jay Hoffman, but remember Hull has been a huge financial backer of the Governor.  This is my favorite theory even if it seems a bit out there.

Vallas.  Gets Vallas out of the way–see Madigan/Giannoulis.

I’d say Halvorson, but she’s running for Congress. She might have Emil’s support since she’s been a loyal Majority Leader.  She’d be great as well.

So my handicapping of what he will do:

1) Hoffman

2) Hull

3) Duckworth

4) Giannoulis

5) Flores

My wishes:

1) Giannoulis with Duckworth taking his spot

2)  Flores

3)  Duckworth

4)  Hoffman

5) Hull

Super Tuesday IL Senate

ArchPundit February 4, 2008 1 Comment

Durbin has no competition, but the Republican race is a bit interesting. Not in the sense someone may matter in the fall, but it could be another disaster for the Illinois Circular Firing Squad Team AKA the Illnois GOP.

The preferred candidate is a fellow named Steve Saurberg.  I think we see the problem Who? And that’s his name?

The problem is the guy has nearly zero name recognition and in the absence of any information and a low turnout Republicans are expecting, it could well be that people vote for the pretty name. That belongs to loon serial candidate Andy Martin. He’s the guy who started the Obama is a Muslim smear.  He’s an idiot, anti-semitic, and most of his campaigning involves showing up on blogs and commenting.  He’ll probably show up below.

Anyway, Martin’s name sounds better than a guy not quite named Sauerkraut so it could be a fun result.

There’s a second loon running by the name of Mike Psak who has a campaign centered on commenting on blogs as well.  His name isn’t so friendly so other than whining about his treatment in this blog entry, he’ll fade away.

Dick Durbin would be doing his victory lap already, but he’s out working for Barack.

Fun With YouTube

ArchPundit October 25, 2007 3 Comments

I believe there’s a threat in there too.  Given the pretty clear bipolar issues, someone might want to check him out.
[kml_flashembed movie="http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docid=-7643264540058027657" width="400" height="326" wmode="transparent" /]

Brown People! Call the Police!

ArchPundit October 24, 2007 2 Comments

Tancredo calls Border Patrol on Dick Durbin.

Everyone was legal.

Nothing to see here. Move along.

That’s Better

ArchPundit September 7, 2007 1 Comment

Durbin on Iraq:

Assistant Senate Majority Leader Dick Durbin promised today that he would no longer vote to fund the war in Iraq unless the money is tied to a withdrawal strategy.

Durbin, the second-ranking Democrat in the Senate, has been a consistent critic of the war in Iraq but is a pragmatic party leader attuned to political reality. The Illinois senator voted against authorization for the war in 2002 but has since voted for the emergency funding packages that have financed the war.

Durbin’s commitment–and a forceful speech he delivered against new funding for Bush’s war strategy–positions an influential Senate leader in favor of a hard line at a moment when some Democrats are signaling a willingness to compromise on war funding.

Congress is preparing for a struggle over continuation of the troop build-up in Iraq following a report on progress to be delivered next week by Gen. David Petraeus, the U.S. military commander in Iraq, and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker. The White House has indicated it will request a supplemental funding package of approximately $40 billion to pay for continuing the Bush Administration’s “surge” strategy.

Durbin said he would not use his leadership position to lobby fellow senators against funding the war. “Each person has to come to grips with this individually,” he said. But an aide said that Durbin already has met with “five or six” senators to share his view on new funding.

That other Senator could go a long way to wrapping up a lot of primary support by joining Durbin.

Durbin on Censure Motion

ArchPundit March 20, 2006 1 Comment

I actually think Feingold’s motion is being handled well by the Party–not worrying about the specific motion and discussing the substance of the President making up bizarre Constitutional Law is a great way to keep that discussion going.

That the Republicans are avoiding having hearings over a serious breach of the separation of powers is mind-boggling.

In Case No One Is Noticing

ArchPundit June 9, 2005 2 Comments

There’s a one man Democratic Values Debate Machine out there and while technically he’s not my Senator, he’s My Senator. Barack Obama at the National Press Club:

Taking responsibility for oneself and showing individual initiative are American values we all share. Frankly, they’re values we could stand to see more of in a culture where the buck is too often passed to the next guy. They are values we could use more of here in Washington too.

But the irony of this all-out assault against every existing form of social insurance is that these safety nets are exactly what encourage each of us to be risk-takers and entrepreneurs who are free to pursue our individual ambitions. We get into a car knowing that if someone rear-ends us, they will have insurance to pay for the repairs. We buy a house knowing that our investment is protected by homeowners insurance. We take a chance on start-ups and small businesses because we know that if they fail, there are protections available to cushion our fall. Corporations across America have limited liability for this very reason. Families should too – and that’s why we need social insurance. This is how the market works.

This is how America works. And if we want it to keep working, we need to develop new ways for all of us to share the new risks of a 21st century economy, not destroy what we already have.

Austin Mayor linked to a story on it

Note to Biden, Richardson and others-how about not worrying about Howard and dealing with the issues? One guy is.

And Obama staffers–make sure these things get more attention.

but rather a statewide Pentecostal revival

ArchPundit April 8, 2005 6 Comments

Dan Proft replies to the Cross guys and includes this bit:

On paper, Keyes could have provided a legit challenge…it lasted for about a week before Keyes embarked upon the Road to Damascus by himself. Wish that would not have happened but the easiest thing we could have done was just sit back and watch Barthwell get beat 70-30, and then blame the moderates. Instead, we attempted to make a legit run at Obama with someone with the capacity and skills to make that legit run. Because that person chose not to run a campaign but rather a statewide Pentecostal revival, I regret it as much as anyone. And that is the difference, I suppose…I don’t run around professing the Keyes campaign as a model to be followed, blithely asking people to believe that getting 27% of the vote was a job well done.

Except that no one in their right mind could have thought Keyes wouldn’t have been running a statewide Pentecostal Revival. In 1996 and 2000 the guy ran a nationwide Pentecostal revival (all the more strange since he’s Catholic) with stunts like handcuffing himself to the building at a television station which excluded him from a debate and generally having eruptions during the debates to which he was admitted.

If you don’t believe me, go to the August 2004 archives where I point out what a loon he is and pretty much predict his performance.

The problem of those like Proft who are trying to sell the story differently is that they thought it was a quick and easy way to make a name for themselves in Illinois politics. Instead of promoting party building, they ran a guy who could get lots of attention and they got exactly what they wanted–but sometimes you don’t know what you really want.

And, of course, Greg Blankenship made a similar point from having worked with Keyes.

But speaking of Keyes, he’s been attending the Confronting the Judicial War on Faith. And for $15 you can get a DVD of Alan’s session or the entire event for $99.

Getting back to the message though,

Atrios quotes Congress Today

Christian conservatives and a core group of congressional supporters are launching a significant new push to restructure the federal judicial system to reflect a more explicitly biblical world view, in the hopes that these changes will pave the way for broader social and political changes, leaders of the movement said.

The great question to ask is *which* Biblical world view and watch them devolve into doctrinal disputes.

Impervious To Parody

ArchPundit April 5, 2005 4 Comments

See, here’s the problem. Keyes isn’t even answering whether he’d consider a run for the Senate in Maryland….

Via NewDonkey from which I stole the title.

As a lover of trainwrecks, I want to say Keyes should stay in Illinois. As a native Illinoisan temporarily displaced, go East man, go East.