Illinois Congressional Races

Good Advice

Lynn Sweet offers up some advice to the Duckworth camp and all of it would be a good start

Here’s what needs to happen, and it’s more than having all of the Democrats show up at Saturday’s DuPage Dems post-primary breakfast in Oakbrook Terrace.

*Cegelis, even if she turns it down, needs to be asked to be part of the Duckworth operation.

*Emanuel, whose presence in the race touched a raw nerve among Cegelis supporters, needs to reach out to them. Durbin and Obama also ought to be mending fences.

*And there is one person who really could help. That’s Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean. It was his people-powered, grass-roots, Internet-based, anti-war 2004 presidential campaign that gave birth to the movement that yielded Cegelis 40.4 percent of the vote.

Lindy is left out, but I think he should be included as well.

More than all of this is the very real problem that voter intensity is in the toilet and needs to be improved. Despite three good candidates, turnout was down. Voter intensity was the reason 1994 happened–Republicans were very intense, Democrats were not. Right now, at least in the 6th, voter intensity isn’t there despite all the time and effort spent there by the three candidates.

It isn’t just mending fences that needs to happen, but a strong and fast analysis of why Democratic leaning voters are not engaged.

Change Progressive to FTN and Oberweis to Scheuer

Hot build a successful party

Christine Cegelis vs. Democratic Party Machine

By Bill Scheurer

To all my friends who supported Christine Cegelis in the Illinois 6th Congressional District primary race — my heart goes out to you and your candidate. You carried out a great grassroots campaign — both, locally and nationwide. You brought out our best. Unfortunately, our best was not enough.

In a mere three months, the D.C. Dems — with the full party apparatus — brought in nearly a million dollars, and all their big names, to beat back what Christine and her supporters had built up over three years: a true grassroots, progressive force. The D.C. Dems? worst nightmare. Or, more accurately, their second worst nightmare.

What do the D.C. Dems fear more than a grassroots progressive primary challenge? A grassroots progressive challenge in the general election. The only thing that can put at risk what they value most — winning, no matter what.

This is the only way progressives will have real power — when we are willing to go outside the party, no matter what, to carry our issues and choices to the people. Only when the Democratic Party elite can no longer count on us to fall in line behind their handpicked candidates as ?the only game in town? (?the lesser of two evils?), will we ever seize real power to move forward the progressive agenda.

Progressive Democrats of America was one of the groups that most valiantly supported the Cegelis campaign. PDA professes to have an ?inside/outside? strategy. Their support for Christine reflected the ?inside? part of this strategy. Now, I ask PDA — is there really an ?outside? part of this strategy — or, is this just a phrase?

Democracy for America also supported Cegelis, to their great credit. Now that the D.C. Dems have showed clearly what they really think of progressives — eat at the children?s table, kids — we must decide what to do about it. Will groups like PDA and DFA remain quasi-auxiliaries of the Democratic Party — running sideshow campaigns in the primary elections? Or, will they become a real force — holding real chips in the game?

It is time for supporters of social progress and peace to eat at the adults? table. The only way to do this, is to start running progressive candidates in the general elections.

Bill Scheurer edits The PeaceMajority Report, and is an independent progressive candidate for U.S. Congress in the Illinois 8th District.

The Challenge in The 6th

The lack of organization–even with the efforts, only about 32,000 people voted in the primary—a winning race will take 140-160,000 votes. Ultimately Democrats don’t have the base that Republicans do—Roskam received 44,000 votes in DuPage alone and another 5,000 in Cook (Dems cast more ballots in Cook, but hard to say if that had something to do wth the Claypool race or not).

While Democrats got 47 percent of the Presidential vote in 2004 in that District, there is still an organizational problem and the organizing for this race isn’t going to fix that problem.

The good news for Democrats is that the Presidential vote was about the same as nationally and Bush’s numbers are in the tank. Even then, Democrats have to reach those voters and find a way to ensure they get to the polls. Being a midterm, turnout will be slightly lower probably giving another slight advantage to Roskam.

Expect each side to exploit every wedge issue at their disposal and do it in the most expensive manner possible.

Defending Strange Math

From comments here:

This “Bush Math” appears to be the only kind of math that I have learned. Perhaps you should take a closer look at the accounting. The $34101.16 is listed as an offset to Operating Expenditures. This means it is a rebate or refund. This amount is added to the contribution amount. You really should make sure you are correct before you start talking about “Bush Math”. It really discredits everything you say.

This just posted as I did the last post, but let’s take a look at the fine report Kelly and apparently the Sean commenter

Here is the FEC report

The problem is apparent when you read the summary, but only gets worse after that.

The summary lists $43,900 in contributions.

Then it lists $34101.16 in Total Offsets to Operating Expenditures
Then it lists -34,101.16 in Net Operating Expenditures

Magically, the Cash on Hand is $78,001.16

Care to explain the math Sean? I’d love to know that if you spent $34,101.16 and raised $43,900 you end up with more money than you raised. It reads like a Shrub Budget.

Sean’s comment about refunds and rebates is especially curious when you look at the definition of refund

Refunds v. Returns
A refund occurs when the committee has actually deposited a contribution in its bank deposi- tory and then pays it back to the contributor by issuing a check. When a committee refunds a contribution to a donor, the committee must include the refund in the total for the ap- propriate category of refund on the Detailed Summary Page (Line 20(a), (b) or (c)). If the committee previously itemized the incoming contribution on Schedule A, then it must itemize the refund on a Sched- ule B for the appropriate category of refund. 104.8(d)(4). (See example, top right.) Alternatively, a committee may return a contribu- tion to the donor without depositing it, although the return must be made within 10 days of the treasurer?s receipt of the contribution. 103.3(

So again, it’s a little bit difficult to figure out how returning money actually increases your cash on hand unless the magical money tree in your backyard is producing cash pretty fast.

Rebates are money you get back on a purchase–so it’s kind of hard how that could almost be as much as Kelly raised since he reports not spending anything.

Most bizarrely, Kelly doesn’t report any disbursements. Funny. But when you look at his receipts you see all sorts of things that look like disbursements, but have been added together to be receipts.

walter wogtowicz apparently contributed $3500 for campaign fee and wages. Now, in some cases one might think that could be an inkind contribution (even though it breaks the limit), but there is no disbursement as you are supposed to report on the report for in-kind donations. In-Kind donations don’t add to your cash on hand, they add to receipts and they subtract from disbursements.

In his receipt category we find entries from corporations–illegal, refunds–by definition not a receipt, a sign company for $15,000–the limit for a primary campaign is $2,100 even for in-kind (though it’s most like a disbursement in receipts), and all sorts of goodies.

So, if the good commenter Sean would care to explain this to me and how the math is correct and how there aren’t violations of the law from a plain reading of the contributors, I’d love to hear it. But I’d especially love to know what I said that is incorrect and how I’ve been discredited. So have at is Sean.

I wonder why someone would take note of the post? hmmmmmm….

Kelly’s Five Mailings

Congress Daily (at National Journal wrote this about the IL-03 race:

Now, Lipinski faces John Kelly (D), who “blanketed the district with” 5 “direct mail pieces focusing on” Lipinski’s ’04 election

They also wrote that Kelly raised $78,000—-he actually raised about $43,000 including $15,000 he loaned to his campaign.

It’s unclear given that he spent $15,000 on mail that he could have had 5 blanket mailings. It’s pretty unlikely he could afford it since if properly done, he’d report about $7,000 on hand at the end of the pre-primary.

One Thing About Lindy

Most Democrats aren’t familiar with Evangelical language–it’s distinct compared to even many of the, for lack of a better word, establishment churches. I can listen to a Bush speech and pick up about half of the references–one of the vital things evangelicals such as Lindy provide is translation into that frame.

Not surprisingly, I started to pick up on the differences by talking to liberal, some radical, evangelicals in Nicaragua and then noticed the same terms and phrases showing up in Republican language.

He’s very good at that and more than that, he can teach Democrats how to think about many issues in a different frame.