ArchPundit

Endorsement: McLean County Recorder–Iva Gibson

Many readers know I have little use for Lee Newcom, former McLean County Board Member until Tari Renner beat him. Newcom was the executive director of the Illinois Christian Coalition, but before that, had a bad habbit of telling young Republicans to pull dirty tricks because they weren’t accountable. Unethical is only where I can begin with that one, but more importantly he’s running for an office that requires good management and he’s had problem with accounting in his political organization.

More on his challenger.

Predictions….

Okay, here are mine since I won’t have time tomorrow.

Nationally

Bush 48
Kerry 50 (just under, but close)

Electoral College
I have it between 273 for Kerry all the way up to a possibility of 347 for Kerry

I’ll settle for 311 Kerry based on my reading of the most recent polls

Illinois Senate:
Obama 73
Keyes 21
Others 6

Senate: Dems 50 Reps 49 with Louisiana left. I didn’t predict this 2 years ago, but the campaigns have been stunning.

House Pick-up of 8 by Dems (generic ballot is very favorable this year)

Local Races
Bean 51-49
Renner 49-51 in a surprisingly strong showing, but the North end of the District holds it for Weller.
Cegelis 45-55
Evans 55-45

I’d be happy to be proven wrong on two of those 😉

Karmeier by 8

Blogbowl II

Okay, I owe Eric an apology, I’ve been running behind two two year olds and under the weathe and on top of it the time change didn’t sit well with them, but he is running his Blog Bowl II

BLOG BOWL II

I’ve invited a number of bloggers who regularly meditate upon the Illinois political scene to participate in Blog Bowl II, an election prediction contest.

Certain pundits shy from publicly guessing at the results of elections ? and , frankly, I think this is a ruse disguised as modesty designed to allow them to spout retrospective analyses in which they make it sound as if they knew the outcome was inevitable.

Blog Bowl II is not for them.

It will work this way: Each participant must submit to me by midnight Sunday three simple predictions:

1. The final percentage gap between Barack Obama and Alan Keyes (e.g., 37)
2. The final electoral vote margin (and the winner) between George Bush and John Kerry (e.g., Kerry by 10)
3. For tie-breaking purposes only, Alan Keyes’ percentage of the vote.

You get one point for each number you’re off (in the above example, if Bush wins by 10 electoral votes, you lose 20 points).

Winner is the blogger with the lowest score.

All predictions (and, if they’d like, links to the blog entries that explain their reasoning) will be published in Monday’s Notebook.

If you blog regularly on Illinois politics and didn’t get a direct invitation from me, it’s because I have an old e-mail address for you or I couldn’t find your e-mail address or because I’m disorganized.

Feel free to enter at ericzorn@aol.com.

Use this format:

(Blog Name ) — Keyes/Obama by XX% ; Kerry/Bush by XX%; Keyes XX% (perma-link) (Optional ? your real name)

Winner gets braggin’ rights until the next election.

First Question for Keyes on Tuesday Evening

About those polls…

Keyes also said he doesn’t believe polls that show Obama far ahead in Tuesday’s election for the seat now held by U.S. Sen. Peter Fitzgerald.

“As far as I know, for instance, those polls are still showing a majority of pro-life people voting for Barack Obama,” Keyes told reporters at Sangamon County Republican headquarters. “Every time somebody suggests that, I just laugh. … Who would believe such nonsense?”

What Keyes doesn’t get is that every pro-life voter doesn’t view pro-life as the only issue they vote upon. Just as every pro-choice voter doesn’t only use pro-choice issues as their only standard for a candidate.

One big consideration is whether the other guy is a huge loon.

Train Tickets and Shopping Scanners

Mr. Crane might be a bit out of touch:

Congressman Phil Crane’s eyes dart around the packed Metra train as reporters sit nearby, waiting to discuss his railroad expansion plan.

He leans forward, then takes a stub of paper off the back of the bench in front of him. He turns it over in his hands.

“Now, what’s this?” Crane asks.

An assistant, laughing nervously, fills him in: “That’s your train ticket.”

This moment during his campaign for re-election in the 8th Congressional District crystallized both what critics say is Crane’s major weakness and what he says is his greatest strength.

Reports are that the RNCC is bringing in a lot of Congressional staffers to work the race. Good. They aren’t nearly as effective as the local group Bean has.